New York Jets vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds, Prediction & Pick
Jets vs. Raiders Odds
| Jets Odds | -0.5 |
| Raiders Odds | +0.5 |
| Over/Under | 35.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 12 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders will meet on Sunday Night Football. In the first half of the season, both of these teams have been mediocre, with New York at 4-4 through eight games and Las Vegas at 4-5 through nine games.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Jets as 0.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 35.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
New York Jets
Zach Wilson holding back New York offense
This season, Zach Wilson has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, ranking 26th out of 28 qualified signal callers in passer rating from a clean pocket. Wilson has been equally poor under pressure, ranking 24th in passer rating, 25th in completion percentage, and 26th in yards per attempt.
Overall, Wilson ranks 32nd in QBR, 33rd in EPA/play, and 33rd in success rate among 33 quarterbacks with at least 160 offensive snaps in 2023. Missing left tackle Duane Brown and right tackle Billy Turner in Week 10 will not make life any easier for Wilson and company offensively.
New York defense playing at a high level
Following a sluggish start to the season, the Jets have been one of the league’s toughest defenses in recent weeks. Since Week 3, New York’s defense ranks fourth in EPA/play and second in success rate.
If there is one discernible weakness for the Jets on the defensive side of the ball, it is against the run. Across their last six games played, New York ranks 15th in rush EPA/play and eighth in rush success rate defensively. On the season, the Jets rank 22nd in rushing yards allowed per play.
Las Vegas Raiders
What to expect from Aidan O’Connell
In three games played this fall, Aidan O’Connell has been part of contests ending with 41 combined points, 42 combined points, and 36 combined points. According to PFF, O’Connell ranks 43rd out of 50 signal callers in passer rating from a clean pocket in 2023 and 36th in passer rating when under pressure.
Among quarterbacks with at least 75 offensive snaps this season, O’Connell ranks 22nd out of 37 players at his position in EPA/play and 23rd in air yards. Facing a New York defense that led the entire NFL in defensive pressure rate in Week 10, O’Connell is likely to struggle.
Raiders defense making strides
In each of the last three weeks, Las Vegas has increased their defensive pressure rate. In Week 7, the Raiders had the fourth-worst defensive pressure rate of any team in the league at 18.3%. In Week 8, Las Vegas improved closer to the league average for the week at 24.4%. Last weekend, the Raiders had the seventh-best defensive pressure rate of any team at 41.3%.
Maxx Crosby led the way last week with six total pressures, including three sacks against the Giants. Facing Zach Wilson, who holds the football in the pocket longer than the league-average quarterback, this defense should have chances to get pressure once again.
Jets vs. Raiders – Picks & Predictions
According to Brandon Anderson of The Action Network, games with a total of 37 points or below are 22-6-1 to the under this season (79%). The extremely low market number for this evening’s Sunday Night Football matchup is an accurate reflection of how poor Zach Wilson and Aidan O’Connell have played this year. Prior to scoring 30 points against the spiraling New York Giants last week, the Raiders had scored 18 points or fewer in seven of their first eight games, with only 21 points in the lone outlier. New York has scored 20 points or fewer in regulation in seven of their eight games. The under makes sense here.
PICK: Under 35.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)