JMToWin's NFL Edge: Divisional Round

Each week this NFL season, JMToWin will break down every game on the NFL slate from top to bottom, with a look at game flow, player matchups, coaching tendencies, DFS strategy, and anything else that shows up in his research that might give you an edge on the slate. Widely regarded as the most in-depth, DFS-specific article in the industry, this top-to-bottom breakdown is just what you need in order to conquer the slate and take home money each week!

Week 19

RG Fam,

Thanks for hanging with me this season. I had a blast!

Before we take a bow and ride off into the offseason, however, we have one final four-game slate to conquer. Let’s go!!!!

Falcons at Eagles

Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 22.25, Eagles 19.25

KEY MATCHUPS:

Eagles Run D – 3rd DVOA / 6th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 16th DVOA / 8th Yards per carry

Eagles Pass D – 7th DVOA / 3rd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 10th DVOA / 5th Yards per pass attempt

Falcons Run D – 20th DVOA / 19th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O – 17th DVOA / 4th Yards per carry

Falcons Pass D – 19th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Eagles Pass O – 5th DVOA / 14th Yards per pass attempt

______

LEVEL I – The Research

On paper, I expect the Falcons to win this game – but if I were in Vegas this week, I imagine I would drop some money on Philly. Give an excellent coaching staff two weeks to prepare for a home playoff game, and the edge tips to that team.

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About the Author

  • JM Tohline (JMToWin)

  • JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.

Comments

  • Khesha87

    JM-it’s been great reading the NFL EDGE all year! Started off the year 3-1 in double ups, then went 1-9, but stuck with the process and have been 4-0 the last four weeks. Hopefully we can end the year with a win!

  • hde0703

    Third year here…casual player. Finally invested in some training this year and it has PAID OFF!

    Using this info, bouncing it off the FD Cash build show, here’s my last four weeks in strictly Double Ups:

    Wild Card- 0/5, just missed by ONE FREAKIN POINT or less in each game!!
    Week 17- 7/7
    Week 16- 6/6
    Week 15- 5/5

    Prior weeks-I goofed around with double ups and low dollar tournies so didn’t do much but get confused and lose money

    Other week’s cash game losses have been right at the cutoff, so even they were encouraging over the first two years.

    Also bought JM and Noto’s Ultimate Cash Game Guide early on, so I’m finally finding my “game” and my niche play

    THANKS!!

  • chatmar

    Great article and thanks for your efforts throughout the past season!

  • Clonepwn

    JM – I finally decided to join RG this year because I wanted to be able to set stacks in the LineupHQ. I stumbled upon your article for the first time sometime around week 3 and have read every word every week since then. Thanks for sharing all of your in-depth research and analysis.

    Looking forward to next season!

  • nevershower

    JM, great job as always. NFL Edge is the best weekly article in the industry! I was wondering your thoughts on a Cheat Code with the Murray/McKinnon double RB like you did with Crowell/Johnson earlier this year. Murray/McKinnon costs $10,300 and I would think 3x is reasonable if you can expect a combined 150 yards, 4 catches, and 2 TDs….even with 1 TD, 2x should be the absolute minimum. Would you classify this as a cash game only stack or is there a 40-point ceiling, in your opinion?

  • golflynx

    Great year ! Thanks for all the hard work. See you in 8 months.

  • jgallagher80

    u da man J M

  • RiccisDeli17

    I like the notion of this as well, would be interested to hear JM’s take

  • james_westfall

    As always JM, couldn’t get thru an NFL week without you. Great stuff, great season. Till next year

  • rockyj9

    Thank you for a great season JM! I wish I had realized what value your article last season so I could be a season ahead of my learning curve. But I am thankful for everything you have taught me this season, and cannot wait until next season to come around again to continue to build on what you’ve instilled. I’ll be seeing you, I’m sure, on the chats and in RotoAcademy courses and other RG forums, and counting the days for the next NFL season to come.

  • ramagosr

    Great year, JM. You should be proud of all the RG improvements we’ve seen, in this article and throughout the site. Thank you.

  • elsieadd

    Great read each week….thoughtful and plenty of insight. Appreciate your efforts and dedication to helping us all out……

  • pnutz21

    My attendance for your class (this article) was 100% this year. I learned a lot; thank you very much for your dedicated effort and work. This article was a core play for me all year and your time and effort is very much appreciated. All the best!

  • Falconsfly

    @nevershower said...

    JM, great job as always. NFL Edge is the best weekly article in the industry! I was wondering your thoughts on a Cheat Code with the Murray/McKinnon double RB like you did with Crowell/Johnson earlier this year. Murray/McKinnon costs $10,300 and I would think 3x is reasonable if you can expect a combined 150 yards, 4 catches, and 2 TDs….even with 1 TD, 2x should be the absolute minimum. Would you classify this as a cash game only stack or is there a 40-point ceiling, in your opinion?

    Did you get an opinion on this? I am curious in this stack as well….

  • Shazashane

    Thank you JM have a good offseason

  • nevershower

    No, no reply…..I think JM stopped caring about us once he posted the final NFL Edge, lol

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