JMToWin’s Oblong-Shaped Ball Picks
JMToWin’s Oblong-Shaped Ball Picks: Week 1, In Which We Don’t Have Access To Belichick’s Cameras
The horse was made of wood. It was big. Big enough to fit around 40 elite soldiers inside of it. The Greeks left it behind when they sailed home, admitting defeat after 10 unsuccessful years of siege on the city of Troy.
You know the story, right? You’ve read Homer (or…you’ve at least watched the movie Troy – because, uh, you know, your girlfriend made you watch it…). The Greeks built the horse in one of the greatest historical (or mythological) examples of military deception, left the horse outside the gates of Troy, burned their tents, and sailed away. “Here you go, Trojans. We give up. We’re leaving behind this huge freaking horse as a gift to Athena, to bless our return journey. Look at the horse – it’s too big to fit inside your city, because we don’t want you to steal the blessing of Athena for yourselves. See, too big. No, don’t try to bring the horse inside, it’s not for you – we promise.”
Boom. Deception accomplished. The Trojans wheeled the horse inside, the Greek army returned to Troy under the cover of night, and the elite soldiers hidden inside the Trojan Horse sneaked out of the horse and opened the gates for the Greek army to enter. That was the end of Troy.
And yet, three thousand years later, we still believe Bill Belichick when he says he does not yet know if Rob Gronkowski will be cleared to play this weekend.
Every year, we as football fans and daily fantasy players are in for a handful of surprises during Week 1, and this is due in large part to the football equivalent of military deception. A great example of this came just the other day, when Mike Wallace stated that the Dolphins only revealed about 15% of their playbook in the preseason (presumably, they left out the part of the playbook that puts Tannehill and Wallace on the same page). And if the Dolphins are smart enough to do this, you can safely assume every other team in the NFL is smart enough to do this, too!
Because there will be more surprises in Week 1 than you will find in later weeks, then,it becomes more important than ever to understand what we DO know. Sure, there is plenty we do not know, as we do not have access to practices (or to Belichick’s cameras), but by understanding what we DO know, and by using this knowledge to maximize your team’s ceiling, you will put yourself in great shape for Week 1 success.
Always remember this: Success in daily fantasy football is all about finding guys who will create a big payoff based on price – that is to say, finding VALUE. And there is no week in the NFL season during which more opportunities for VALUE exist than Week 1, when the NFL equivalent of “military deception” means that offensive roles have not yet been revealed to the public, and have therefore not yet been reflected in daily fantasy pricing. Because of this, our goal is to uncover the potential opportunities available to certain players, in order to maximize our opportunity for high production-per-price.
If you are new to daily fantasy sports, one thing you are certain to discover in the long run is this: The daily fantasy players who know what they are doing tend to consistently win over time, and the daily fantasy players who are busy collecting buttons and sewing them onto homemade sweaters instead of finding that week’s best daily fantasy values will perpetually have lots of buttons on their sweaters…which is certainly nice when a “bad sweater” party comes around, but it is not much help in other areas of life.
Throughout this season, every Friday (in order to help free up more of your time for sewing buttons onto your sweaters), I will use this article to provide you with a look at some of the best point-per-dollar upside available on DraftKings for each position. I will be using a combination of film study, player usage, matchup, and upside to help you understand the players most worth targeting that week.
You can find plenty of additional in-depth (and thoroughly indispensable!) information on team-building strategies for daily fantasy football in Grinders U on RotoGrinders, but to state things in as simple a manner as possible: Building a perfect daily fantasy football team is less about finding the player at each position who will score the most points that week, and is more about finding the player at each position who will yield the highest return per dollar spent! With a team full of high point-per-dollar returns, you will consistently maximize your team’s ceiling.
Our goal, in this article, will be to uncover players each week with a solid chance of quadrupling their price (for example: if a player costs $5k, we would look for them to have an opportunity to notch 20 points), as this would give you 200 points across your team and a good chance of making a run at any tournament you enter!
Without further ado, then, we bid adieu to the intro and move onto the picks:
Quarterbacks
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$9700 – DREW BREES vs Falcons
“What? You’re listing the second most expensive quarterback as your best value of the week?” Absolutely! And here’s why: A) The Falcons – despite their best efforts at correcting their problems – are unlikely to have a great defense this year. B) The Saints are one of the only teams in the NFL you can count on to keep passing even if they are up big late in a game. Now, I know the Falcons were bad on defense last year and still did pretty well versus Drew Brees. But I also know this: Even at a salary of $9.7k, I feel Brees has the best chance of any QB in the league of quadrupling his salary in Week 1. I will have widespread exposure to Brees on my teams this week and will happily look for value elsewhere. Don’t worry, though – if you have a hard time stomaching the price (or if you are a Falcons fan – heaven help you – and you do not want to pick someone playing against your team), there are plenty of other QB options to choose from this week!
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$8300 – ANDREW LUCK vs Broncos
Last year, Luck’s second-best game of the regular season came against the Broncos. What’s that? Oh, you say the Broncos have a pretty good defense? That’s right – but it’s not about the defense. It’s all about Pep Hamilton being sent to the NFL to suppress Luck’s ceiling. In a game in which the other team scores a lot of points, however, ol’ Pep has to let Luck loose. And that’s when good things happen. He may have a hard time quadrupling his salary this week, but it’s a pretty fair bet that he at least comes close.
$8000 – COLIN KAEPERNICK vs Cowboys
The Cowboys may very well have the worst defense in the NFL. That’s the good news. The bad news is this: The 49ers seem afraid of letting Kaepernick fling the rock around the yard. This is a risky pick, as the 9ers could easily keep Kaep under 25 passing attempts. On the other hand, they could unleash him on Jerry’s other favorite employees (oh, wait – never mind, apparently those pictures were “misrepresented”), and you could reap the fantasy benefits.
$7700 – TOM BRADY vs Dolphins
I should get this out of the way right now: I’m a lifelong Patriots fan. I should also remind you that Brady frequently struggles against the Dolphins (it’s had something to do with some guy named Jason Taylor, and then some other guy named Cameron Wake – that’s pronounced like a wake in the water, in case you’ve never heard of him). But a healthy group of guys around Brady (yes, I do believe Gronk over Belichick – he’s healthy and will be playing a nearly-full compliment of snaps) means a ceiling as high as any quarterback in the league. At this price, I’d happily take a shot.
$7500 – CARSON PALMER vs Chargers
“Carson Palmer? Isn’t he retired?” Easy mistake to make – he actually came back a couple years ago to some team that plays in San Antonio (what’s that? – oh, sorry, I mean Oakland), and last year he went to the Cardinals and was not half bad. Bruce Arians is a great offensive mind, and Palmer has great offensive weapons around him. He’ll also be playing a team with not-so-great talent on defense. Palmer has the ability to put up under 10 fantasy points (an ability not every quarterback has!), but he also has the potential to put up close to 30 in this week’s game – which is exactly what you are looking for at this price.
$5400 – RYAN FITZPATRICK vs Redskins
The question, if you dig this deep in the quarterback barrel, is not whether Fitzpatrick can match points with the top quarterbacks, but is instead whether Fitzpatrick can pay off at a per-dollar rate equivalent to the top quarterbacks. With Bill O’Brien calling the plays, and with Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal, I could easily see Fitz putting up some 300 yard, 3 touchdown performances this year. If this happens to be one of those weeks (What’s that you say? The Redskins don’t have a good defense? Nice!), saving money at QB could put you in great shape for maximizing your spending elsewhere.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$5000 – DEREK CARR vs Jets
Carr is the first of our high-risk, high-reward sweepstakes picks for this weekend. We do not know what we will get from Carr, but we know that the Jets still have a suspect secondary, and we know Carr has a massive arm. There’s still some leftover speed on the Raiders from Al Davis’ waning years (shockingly, Darrius Heyward-Bey never managed to live up to his first-round status and is no longer part of that speed), and Carr could easily notch a couple deep strikes in this one. If you pick him, you’re risking an embarrassing final fantasy score. But you also provide yourself with some sneaky upside and a chance to spend big on a large chunk of your other roster spots.
Running Backs
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$6100 – SHANE VEREEN vs Dolphins
This could either prove to be a very low price for Vereen or a very high price for Vereen. It’s all about how the Patriots end up using him, and I do not pretend to know what the answer to that will be. With that said: Vereen has immense upside, especially in DraftKings’ PPR format (with bonus points for 100 yards receiving, no less), and this makes Vereen a must-start for me in tournament play.
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$6800 – DEMARCO MURRAY vs 49ers
DeMarco Murray was a beast down the stretch last year – and remember, injury concerns do not matter nearly as much in daily fantasy as they do in season-long. Because of the persistent injury concerns surrounding DeMarco, his ownership numbers in daily fantasy are often lower than they should be. And the perception that the 49ers have an elite defense (hint: they no longer do) should further suppress DeMarco’s ownership. Ultimately, if you are looking for a high-upside play that will not be on a ton of rosters (which should always be a point of focus in tournament play), DeMarco is a great option to consider.
$5200 – BEN TATE vs Steelers
Excuse me, may I have your attention for a moment? Thank you. Are you interested in buying a three-down running back with a great offensive line? (“Great offensive line?” you ask – why, yes, they were rated the #5 offensive line last year by the bright minds at Pro Football Focus.) This running back we are talking about – this running back who is for sale – will be playing a defensive unit that is much scarier in name than it is in talent, and will likely have the opportunity to touch the football 25 to 30 times, because his backup is just plain not yet ready for the NFL. If this sounds like a good deal to you, you can make this purchase for the low price of $5200. That’s right – a mere $5200.
$5000 – PIERRE THOMAS vs Falcons
Remember Darren Sproles? Yeah. He’s gone. And now Pierre Thomas is taking over his role on the offense. How do we know this? Well…if we want to reference the introduction to this article: We don’t know this. But it’s a safe assumption to make. And anyway, does it matter if that is the exact role Pierre Thomas is taking? The guy had 77(!) receptions last year, with Sproles on the team. Yes, there is risk here – the Saints do spread the ball around a lot – but there is also a lot of upside on a team that should be passing the ball plenty in Week 1 (and Week 2, and Week 3, and every week thereafter).
$4000 – KNOWSHON MORENO vs Patriots
Maybe Moreno is not as good as he seemed to be last year (is anyone really as good as they seem to be when they’re benefitting from the otherworldly force – uh…otherworldly in the regular season, that is – known as Peyton Manning?). But he’s still a pretty darn good back. And he’s looked pretty darn good in the preseason. The Patriots have a solid front 7, and there are workload concerns with the more-talented but consistently-disappointing Lamar Miller hanging around, but at this price, Moreno is an extremely tempting option. Last year, Moreno averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game. Again, yes, that was in Denver. But…come on. He averaged almost 4.5 times his Week 1 salary. He’s a strong Week 1 consideration.
$3700 – DANNY WOODHEAD vs Cardinals
Speaking of ridiculously high point-per-dollar averages…Last year, Danny Woodhead averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game – or roughly 3.7 times his Week 1 price of $3.7k. Yes, Donald Brown is in and Ken Wisenhunt is gone, but Brown should be a much bigger drain on Mathews than on Woodhead, and McCoy is still the head coach in San Diego, which means the offense should remain pretty much the same. At this price, Woodhead is almost impossible to ignore.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000– BENNY CUNNINGHAM vs Vikings
Do you know who the #1 back is in St. Louis? Maybe you think you know, but do you really? I could be wrong – it’s happened before (twice, in fact – once when I was seven years old, and another time four years ago that I don’t want to talk about) – but I expect Cunningham to get more carries than Stacy in Week 1. I’ll repeat: I could be wrong…but if I’m right, Cunningham could provide huge value at his price point, and could give you a lot of flexibility on the rest of your roster.
Wide Receivers
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$6100 – MICHAEL CRABTREE vs Cowboys
With apologies to Crazy Richard, it should be noted that Michael Crabtree is not a “sorry receiver.” He is quite the opposite, in fact. I will be surprised if Crabtree does not have a Top 15 season in PPR leagues this year…and in Week 1, he gets what could ultimately be his best matchup of the season against LeBron James’ streamer pick of “they were winning championships when I was a kid, so they’re my favorite team – Cowboys, Bulls, and Yankees all the way!” This is a juicy matchup, and I think the 49ers will want to showcase a fully-healthy Crabtree. This could be a very big game for him.
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$6600 – ANDRE JOHNSON vs Redskins
I was tempted to list Johnson as my play of the week. I think we’re all too low on him – and as great as Crabtree’s matchup is, Johnson’s is nearly as good, and his ceiling is higher. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the Texans, however (what, exactly, will this offense look like, as far as strategy and Fitzpatrick’s noodle arm?), I could not quite bring myself to put him that high on my list. If you have the salary cap space, however, I like Johnson’s potential to be among the highest-scoring WRs this week.
$5300 – JULIAN EDELMAN vs Dolphins
Julian Edelman may get fewer looks close to the goal line, with Vereen and Gronk in the Week 1 mix, but it’s tough to pass up his PPR potential at $5300. Even without a touchdown, Edelman could easily notch 10 catches and 100 yards, and he gives you the added bonus of potential punt return touchdowns. Edelman is locked in as a safe play with a high ceiling – not as high as someone like Andre Johnson, but plenty high for his price.
$4800 – EMMANUEL SANDERS vs Colts
As great of a value as Emmanuel Sanders is this week, he may very well double as one of the best options to fade in Week 1 as well (if you’re new to daily fantasy sports: to “fade” a player means to intentionally avoid him on your roster for strategic purposes – generally because you know most other rosters will have that player, and you want to set your roster apart). Because of the Wes “I don’t know what a Molly is – I think the devil spiked my drink” Welker suspension, lots of people will be on Sanders. I think he’ll be a worthwhile investment – especially at this price. But I would not blame you if you faded him, assuming he will be on 30% or 40% of tournament rosters and hoping he’ll have a bad game and give you a boost as a result.
$4500 – ANDREW HAWKINS vs Steelers
Meet Baby Hawk. He’s 5’7”, and he may weigh less than my cat. He’s also the deep threat, the underneath threat, the inside threat, and the outside threat on his team…Yeah. Obviously, there is some guesswork involved here, but it seems likely that Hawkins will be notching 8 to 10 targets per game this year, and he has the speed to do something with it. He should have a floor of 5 catches and 30 to 40 yards most games this year, but his ceiling is much higher than that. He may turn out to be a very good buy at a price of only $4500.
$3300 – MARKUS WHEATON vs Browns
Now that’s value. Reports from camp have Markus Wheaton and Ben Roethlisberger alternatingly on and off the same page as one another, but at $3300, with tons of talent, playing the role of #2 WR in a Todd Haley offense, I’ll happily take the plunge. The only concern, in my eyes, is the outside chance that Joe Haden shadows Wheaton. The obvious likelihood is that Haden sticks with Antonio Brown, as he has in the past, but Haden does better against guys with Wheaton’s skill set than he does against guys with Brown’s, which could conceivably cause Pettine to shake things up. Then again, when have you known the Browns to do something that surprises another team? (Uh…what I mean is, when have you known the Browns to do something that surprises another team on the field; off the field, it’s a different story, of course!) I expect Haden to stick with Brown, and I’ll gladly roll with Wheaton’s upside at $3300.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3000 – DONNIE AVERY vs Titans
Let’s get this out of the way: By NFL standards, Donnie Avery is a marginal talent. With that said, there is really no one else for Alex “$45 million guaranteed, because I’m just that darn good” Smith to throw to on the outside with Dwayne Bowe suspended in Week 1. Charles will get his, of course, and (spoiler alert) I expect Travis Kelce to be involved. But at $3000, it’s tough to pass up the Week 1 logical volume play known as Donnie Avery.
Tight Ends
JMToWin’s Play of the Week:
$7200 – JIMMY GRAHAM vs Falcons
This one goes hand-in-hand with my Brees pick. On rosters where I am starting Brees, I am also starting Graham. To put it simply: if Brees has a big enough game to justify his salary, it is a near-certainty that Graham will also have a big enough game to justify his. If I’m going to sink or fly with one, I’ll sink or fly with the other as well. (Obviously, this goes strictly for tournament play. If you are playing 50/50s, you’re much better off diversifying your player portfolio!) It also does not hurt that Graham, truly, is a top 5 or 6 FLEX play in Week 1, and yet is priced as the 13th most expensive FLEX play. If I can make the salary cap space, I’ll take that every time.
Five More Guys – Other Top Value Plays of the Week:
$4800 – VERNON DAVIS vs Cowboys
Have we mentioned that the Cowboys’ defense is unlikely to be any good? If we haven’t mentioned that: uhhh, yeah, the Cowboys’ defense is unlikely to be any good. Vernon Davis comes with risk, as his usage (along with his focus, frankly) can be sporadic at times. But if he becomes a heavy target in this game – which is an extremely reasonable expectation – his ceiling is immense. Think of it this way: would you pay $4800 for a wide receiver with Davis’ skill set and upside? Of course you would! So you have to strongly consider him at tight end or in the FLEX at this price as well.
$4300 – KYLE RUDOLPH vs Rams
The Rams were very good against tight ends last year. Very good. However, Norv Turner is calling plays in Minnesota now, and this means Rudolph has a very high ceiling. There are other guys I like more than him this week, but I would not blame you for using him. Seven or 8 catches, 70 yards, and a touchdown are certainly not outside the realm of possibilities.
$4100 – ZACH ERTZ vs Jaguars
Ertz is a powerful weapon in the Eagles’ arsenal, but it is also worth noting: we do not know exactly how he will be used in Week 1. If you take the risk and roll with him, however – and if he is employed in the manner Chip Kelly surely hopes to employ him eventually – your money will be extremely well spent.
$3400 – ANTONIO GATES vs Cardinals
You thought he was dead? Or that he retired? Well, guess what: not only is Antonio Gates still playing, but he’s actually still the #1 tight end on his team! Look: Gates may be a step slower than he used to be (aren’t we all), but he’s only 34. By all accounts, he’s healthy. And while he may tire or become injured as the season wears along, this is Week 1. It also helps that the Cardinals were atrocious against tight ends last season. With Rivers still slinging the ball for the Chargers, I would have considered a healthy Gates at $4400 in this matchup. At $3400, he has the potential to be an absolute steal.
$3200 – LADARIUS GREEN vs Cardinals
“I thought you just said Antonio Gates isn’t dead, and didn’t retire?” I did say that – and the risk on Green is bigger than most people probably imagine (it’s certainly bigger than the risk on Gates), as the Chargers clearly do not yet seem inclined to hand the red zone reins – let alone the #1 TE duties – to Green. At the same time, there should be plenty of room in this offense for two tight ends, and this makes Green a great upside play.
Sweepstakes Pick:
$3200 – TRAVIS KELCE vs Titans
This is a gut call more than anything, and I would not blame you if you chose not to follow me here. After all, the Chiefs seem adamant about keeping Anthony Fasano as their #1 TE (What, did Romeo Crennel return as their head coach? Oh, who’s their head coach now? Never mind, that explains it too…), but with Bowe out for the week and the need to have someone other than Jamaal Charles make plays in the game, why not throw to the second most talented skill position player on the offense? I’ll be rolling with Kelce in a few places. Why not take the plunge with me!
Best of luck this week. And remember: It’s Week 1 – which means that as much as I DO know, I really know nothing!
JMToWin sometimes lives life as his alter-ego: novelist JM Tohline (Tuh-lean – if you care to pronounce it correctly). When he’s not conducting far too much research for fantasy sports, he can be found working on his second novel, making time for freelance writing projects, and wishing he had 50,000 Instagram followers like his wife, photographer at abby_tohline. If you want to ask him fantasy-related questions (fantasy sports, that is), you can find him on the Twitter account he literally just set up, at JMToWin