Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -8.5 |
| Broncos Odds | +8.5 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 11 |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Empower Field at Mile High for an intra-division battle against the Denver Broncos. Entering play, Kansas City is 9-3, with a three game lead over the Los Angeles Chargers for first place in the AFC West division standings. Following four consecutive losses, Denver is in last place in the division and on the verge of being mathematically eliminated from the postseason. In a matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions, oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable win for Kansas City, pricing the Chiefs as 8.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
Only the Philadelphia Eagles own a better record than the Kansas City Chiefs through 12 games in 2022. Kansas City has lost only three times this fall – in Week 3, by three points against the Indianapolis Colts, in Week 6, by four points against the Buffalo Bills, and in Week 13, by three points against the Cincinnati Bengals. In their most recent loss against the Bengals, the Chiefs were unexpectedly without left guard Joe Thuney at the last minute, due to an ankle injury. Thuney has logged full participation in practice all week leading up to this AFC West battle, and is trending towards suiting up on Sunday, which will be a major boon to this offensive line. Patrick Mahomes and company are 5-1 since Week 7, with three double-digit victories and a +50 point differential overall. Despite facing a strong Denver defense, this offense should be able to put a healthy number of points on the board in this spot.
Defensively, Kansas City is as healthy as they have been all season. Linebacker Nick Bolton was limited early in the week, but was upgraded to a full practice participant on Friday. As a result, no member of this defense carried an injury designation into the weekend. The Chiefs surrendered 27 points to Cincinnati in Week 13, but they still made a number of notable plays, including an impressive tackle by Carlos Dunlap on the goal line in the second quarter, which forced a turnover on downs. Since Trent McDuffie returned from injured reserve in Week 9, Kansas City’s secondary unit has become more consistent, which has helped Kansas City limit the opposition to 17 points or fewer three times in five games. This group should be able to limit the effectiveness of an anemic Denver offense in this spot.
Denver Broncos
Following a Week 10 bye, the Broncos are winless in four games – having scored 10 points or fewer three times. Since Week 3, Denver is 1-8, and has scored 20 points in a game only twice in that span. Entering play this weekend, Russell Wilson and company rank 32nd in the NFL, averaging 13.8 points per game. This offense could be in even worse shape in Week 14 with wide receiver Courtland Sutton on the sidelines.
Though it is not easily perceptible from a quick look at the standings, Denver’s defense has been nothing short of elite in 2022 – allowing the second-fewest points of any team in the league through 13 weeks. Per Zac Stevens, Denver also ranks 1st in red zone percentage (32.1%), 2nd in yards-per-play (4.8), 3rd in net yards per game (304.6), 3rd in passing yards per game (184.5), and 3rd in third-down percentage (31.9%). The only major injury news to report for the Broncos ahead of kickoff is that defensive tackle D.J. Jones is listed as questionable. Per Pro Football Focus, Jones ranks 40th out of 108 players at his position in pass-rush grade in 2022.
Chiefs vs. Broncos – Picks & Predictions
Since their Week 8 bye, the Kansas City Chiefs have seen three of their five games end with 44 points or fewer being scored. Since Week 5, the Denver Broncos have not had a game total more than 38 points on the final scoreboard. In some situations, it is best to not overcomplicate a wager with complex advanced metrics. The Broncos are likely to be good enough defensively to keep the Chiefs from covering this number by themselves, and Russell Wilson is likely to continue to struggle to lead this Denver offense to points. The under makes a lot of sense here.
PICK: Under 44.5 (-145, MGM)