Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chiefs vs. Colts Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -5.5 | Colts Odds | +5.5 |
| Over/Under | 50.5 | ||
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 25 | ||
| Time | 1:00 p.m. | ||
| TV | CBS |
On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts will meet in a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions. The Chiefs opened the season with an explosive win over the Arizona Cardinals, and then took care of business in a divisional battle against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 2. Conversely, the Colts narrowly avoided a loss in Week 1, forcing a tie against the Houston Texans. Last week, Indianapolis was kept off of the scoreboard entirely in a 24-0 defeat at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy win for Kansas City in this spot, pricing them as 5.5 point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
During the offseason, Tyreek Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins, which caused many pundits to forecast the Chiefs being dethroned in the AFC West for the first time since 2015. Through two weeks, the offense has been anything but a catastrophe. Patrick Mahomes threw for 360 passing yards and five touchdowns in Week 1, and then delivered another pair of touchdowns in Week 2 – including a key 41-yard dime to Justin Watson in the third quarter to keep Kansas City within striking distance. Despite not playing his best game on Thursday Night Football, Mahomes was able to walk out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win, and a relatively clean stat line. He did a good job avoiding pressure on a night when his offensive line did not play great, and made key throws in important situations to get the job done. In Week 3, Mahomes gets to face a Colts’ defense that uses two-high looks less often than almost any team in the league. If Indianapolis dares to play Cover 3 against this new-look Kansas City offense, it could be off to the races for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juju Smith-Schuster, and the rest of the Chiefs’ pass-catchers in this matchup.
Per Pro Football Focus, Kansas City has the fifth-best pressure rate of any defense in the NFL to begin 2022. Last year, the Chiefs struggled on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 30th in sacks per pass attempt and 30th in yards allowed per play. However, the defense has been much-improved so far this season, with first round draft pick George Karlaftis, third round draft pick Leo Chenal, and seventh round draft pick Jaylen Watson each making an immediate impact for this group. Per Jordan Reid, Karlaftis ranks sixth among all edge rushers in the league in pressure percentage through two weeks. Chenal has seen his snap counts limited thus far, but had a key pressure against Justin Herbert last Thursday, and should be afford an expanded role with Willie Gay Jr. being suspended for four games. Watson made a name for himself with a crucial pick-six on the goal line against the Chargers – arguably the most important play of the game. The absence of Gay could create some problems for Kansas City across the next month, but this is still a talented collection of players who are capable of playing well against an underwhelming Indianpolis offense.
Indianapolis Colts
As I mentioned in my weekly podcast, bettors should not allow themselves to overreact to what we have seen through the first two weeks of the season. Yet, it is still worth mentioning that the Colts rank 28th in EPA/play after having played the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars – neither of which possess a defense that is remotely close to elite. Per rbsdm, Matt Ryan ranks 32nd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play, and by a wide margin. Ryan struggled mightily in Week 2 with Michael Pittman off of the field, throwing for only 195 passing yards and three interceptions. Falling behind early, offensive coordinator Marcus Brady abandoned the run game completely, which made life even more difficult for an Indianapolis offense that was without a couple of key playmakers. Fortunately for Colts’ fans, Pittman Jr. was a full participant in practice on Friday and appears on track to suit-up for Sunday’s affair against the Chiefs. Still, Ryan has struggled under pressure and against the blitz since going to the Super Bowl in 2016. Facing a Kansas City defense that has been finding their way into the opposing backfield at a high-rate so far in 2022, this offense could struggle again in Week 3.
The defense has been slightly better than the offense so far for Indianapolis, but that is far from a compliment. After matchups with the Texans and Jaguars, the Colts rank 13th in EPA/play, and have been particularly vulnerable against the pass – ranking 19th in pass yards per attempt and 30th in opponent completion percentage. Linebacker Shaquille Leonard has already been ruled out for this game as well, meaning that the Colts will be without one of the better defensive players in the game. Sunday will be another tough test for this group – a test that they are unlikely to pass.
*Chiefs vs. Colts Pick & Prediction
Instead of investing in a side for this contest, bettors should look to exploit the Colts’ vulnerable secondary unit. Patrick Mahomes had 30 completions in Week 1 – a game in which Kansas City dominated from beginning to end. Last Thursday, Mahomes still had 24 completions, playing on a short week against a stout Los Angeles Chargers secondary unit that had just returned J.C. Jackson to the field. Indianapolis lacks talent to defend the pass, other than Stephon Gilmore, but they have proven to be relatively strong against the run to begin the year. Expect the Chiefs to feature the short passing game frequently in this contest to move the chains, and for Mahomes to surpass this number on Sunday. Take the over.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes o27.5 completions (+112, FanDuel)
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