Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -5.5 |
| Chargers Odds | +5.5 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 20 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers at Sofi Stadium. Entering play, Kansas City owns the best record in the entire AFC at 7-2, with a two-game lead in the division over the Chargers. In this important intra-division affair, oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable win for the Chiefs, pricing Kansas City as 5.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has lost only two games this fall, a Week 3 defeat in the closing seconds against the Indianapolis Colts and a loss at Arrowhead Stadium by four points against the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have proven their ability to win in a variety of game scripts so far this season, with comfortable blowout wins against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers, in addition to come-from-behind victories against the Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes has been a large part of this group’s success, as he enters Week 11 leading the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and ranks 2nd in QBR. Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been ruled out for this matchup, but the rest of this high-powered offense is at full strength for Sunday Night Football.
Since first round pick Trent McDuffie returned to the field, the Chiefs’ secondary unit has improved significantly. Prior to the bye week, Kansas City ranked 23rd in defensive Dropback EPA/play. In two games with McDuffie on the field since returning from the bye, the Chiefs rank 13th in defensive Dropback EPA/play. The larger concern continues to be a poor defensive line, which has struggled mightily against opposing ground attacks.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert is often talked about as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but his performance in 2022 has not done much to support those claims. Entering play in Week 11, Herbert ranks only 13th in QBR and is tied for 17th in interceptions among qualified signal callers. Outside of Jamaree Salyer and Corey Linsley on the offensive line, Herbert has unreliable protection at the line of scrimmage, which has also limited the effectiveness of the Los Angeles running game. If the Chargers are unable to exploit Kansas City’s vulnerability against the run, Los Angeles is likely to find it difficult to put points on the board this evening.
Defensively, Khalil Mack and Derwin James have been the only two consistent performers for this unit. The lack of reliable options on the defensive line has been especially notable, with only the New York Giants permitting more yards-per-carry to their opponents this fall. Kansas City is not elite at running the ball, but they did manage 5.2 yards-per-carry when these two teams met in Week 2. The Chargers are vulnerable in this spot against one of the best offenses in the league.
Chiefs vs. Chargers – Picks & Predictions
In Week 2, Kansas City emerged victorious, despite only possessing the ball for 26 minutes and 23 seconds and running 20 fewer plays than Los Angeles. In the rematch, the Chiefs are the healthier team and far more talent on both sides of the ball. Intra-division games tend to be more competitive than often anticipated, but Kansas City should roll in this spot. Trust Patrick Mahomes and company to cover here, as we go for our fifth consecutive free play win in primetime.
PICK: Chiefs -5.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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