Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Chiefs Odds | +1 |
| Buccaneers Odds | -1 |
| Over/Under | 46 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 2 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will battle on Sunday Night Football in a highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl LV. The Chiefs and Buccaneers each started the new campaign with back-to-back victories, but both teams suffered defeat in Week 3 in closely-contested affairs. Oddsmakers are expecting another competitive game script for these teams in Week 4, pricing Tampa Bay as a 1-point home favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
Make no mistake – the Chiefs should be 3-0 heading into Week 4. Through three weeks, Kansas City has defeated their opponent twice, and defeated themselves once. Last weekend against the Indianapolis Colts, the Chiefs muffed a punt, which spotted the Colts a quick seven points. Prior to the half, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy inexplicably chose to run the ball into the line near midfield, rather than trying to put points on the board – a decision that led to a heated sideline exchange between Bieniemy and Patrick Mahomes. In the second half, Kansas City perplexingly tried a fake field goal attempt on 4th and short, which led to a turnover on downs, and then missed a short field goal attempt on their subsequent drive. On the Colts’ go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, the defense would have been off of the field on a 4th and 14, if not for a questionable unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that resulted in an Indianapolis first down to extend the drive. Simply, the Colts did very little to deserve a win in Week 3.
Heading into Week 4, Kansas City is nearly at 100 percent health, with kicker Harrison Butker being the most notable injury absence. Linebacker Willie Gay will be out again today, serving the second game of a four-week suspension for violation of the league’s personal conduct policy. Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the rest of this high-powered offensive attack will be available. A revamped defense that ranks 11th in EPA/play through three weeks will have a favorable matchup against an injury-riddled Tampa Bay offense. Expect a well-prepared, focused Kansas City team to play a much cleaner game than we saw in Week 3.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Similar to last weekend, the Buccaneers have a significant amount of talent on the injury report. On the final practice report, wide receivers Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and Breshad Perriman were each listed as “Did Not Participate.” Wide receiver Chris Godwin and left tackle Donovan Smith were both listed as “Limited Participation.” This is an offense that lost All-Pro Guard Ali Marpet to retirement in the offseason, which preceded the loss of starting center Ryan Jensen to a season-ending knee injury during training camp. Through three weeks, the consequences of so many missing offensive contributors have been acutely felt by a Tampa Bay offense that ranks 30th in EPA/play. Tampa Bay is yet to score more than 20 points in a game, and they have combined for only 511 yards of total offense across the last two weeks against the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. Facing a talented Kansas City defense, it could be another difficult week for this group, even if Godwin and Jones return to the field.
The positive news for Buccaneers’ fans is that the defense has been nothing short of elite during the first month of action this fall. In Week 1, Tampa Bay held the Dallas Cowboys to only three points and 244 yards of total offense. In Week 2, the Saints amassed only three points prior to a garbage-time 75-yard drive in the closing minutes of a three-score game. In Week 3, this group held Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers scoreless for the entirety of the second half, allowing only 14 points in the loss. The absence of Akheim Hicks limits the ability of the defensive line to get after the opposing quarterback, but this side of the ball is still loaded with talent. Head Coach Todd Bowles has always been heralded as one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, and we have seen his genius manifest on the field in 2022. Bowles’ commitment to two-high coverages has allowed the defensive line and linebackers to handle the responsibility of the run game, which has enabled Carlton Davis and the rest of the secondary to flourish. Expect another strong day from this defense on Sunday Night Football.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Picks & Predictions
The under has hit with ease in each of Tampa Bay’s first three games this season. The market continues to respect the excellence of Tom Brady, but Brady has only been able to do so much early in 2022 – playing behind a beleaguered offensive line, and lacking a healthy wide receiver room. The frequency at which the Buccaneers deploy two-high looks should force Kansas City to take what is available underneath, with little opportunity to push the ball deep down-the-field. The under has a good opportunity to cash again in this spot in Week 4.
PICK: Under 47 (-131, DraftKings)
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