Keeping Your FanDuel Lineups On Beat
They call themselves “Hip Hop Heads.”
I will get to the players you need to consider for your cash and tournament lineups on FanDuel this week, but first, indulge me for a couple paragraphs. Plus, there’s a lesson worth learning here, and they say you should learn something new every day. What have you really learned today?
You can segment our society into an infinite amount of different cross-sections, but this specific brand of music snob has always rubbed me the wrong way. They pride themselves on their taste in Rap/Hip Hop music, with which I have no problem. I’m oversimplifying, but the key evaluation criterion this group uses is lyrical content. For the uninitiated, the lyrics of a Hip Hop song tend to be more long-form, and generally with a deeper message. Also, in delivering that message, plenty of wordplay is involved.
I should add here that I have no problem with snobbery. I’m guiltier than most, in that regard. Not only must every single letter I write be with a Pilot G-2 pen, but it must be an Extra Fine (05) or Ultra Fine (038). The .7 millimeter, Fine version, just will not do. And, don’t even get me started with the paint brush that is their full 1.0 mm Bold tip! That is all to say, like what you like.
My issue comes in criticizing the preferences of others, something that “Hip Hop Heads” do regularly. Nowadays, those criticisms manifest themselves in indictments of Drake, Nicki Minaj, 2 Chainz, Flo Rida, and Tyga, among many others, and with many more coming before them. By and large, “popular” music gets the bulk of their ridicule, the stuff you might hear on a Top 40 radio station. It is more repetitive, with more emphasis on the chorus and less on the verses, and the content is generally dumbed down. That makes it bad, according to them.
I’ll leave to the side the irony of a group of people, who take pride in originality, identifying themselves using the same naming construct, -Heads, as Metal Heads, Dead Heads, Parrot Heads, and Meth Heads. More important to me, is that these Hip Hop Heads spend too much time on the “What” and not enough on the “Why”. When you examine why the vast majority of people listen to music, it’s for a distraction or as an escape. They want background sound for their car rides, a cadence to jog to, or just a familiar beat they can be out of sync with, as they awkwardly dance at a wedding. For most people, if they wanted a deeper message, they’d read a book.
That, to me, is the point. Whether something is “Good” or not has to be looked at through the prism of what it is supposed to do. A loaf of bread is “Good,” if you need to make a sandwich, and I’ll say “Less Good,” if you need to pound in a nail. In the same way, many of the lyrics of “Pop Rap” won’t ever be confused with the writings of Confucius, but for someone who just wants to nod his head, Ludacris will do just fine.
That message can easily be extrapolated to Daily Fantasy. As you are evaluating players this week, trying to figure out what they might do, spend a second considering the why, as in why that range of outcomes might or might not be good for the type of game you are in. For instance, a running back who is likely to get 10 carries but would be lucky to get 20, might be perfect for a 50/50 tournament, where finishing 49th out of a 100 is the same as 1st. On the other hand, if that lineup is going into a Qualifier, where 1st prize wins the seat, while 2nd and Last Place receive the same Fantasy Lump of Coal, that 10-carry back probably won’t suffice.
Editor’s Note: The Fantasy Grout will return for Week 16. Don’t worry, the Grout for a Shout is still in effect, so be on the lookout for it on the forums!
This week, we’ll examine a few players at each position through the prism of both what they might do and why that’s better for a cash or tourney lineup, while sprinkling in a heaping helping of Pop Rap lyrics because, why not?
Quarterbacks
CASH
Andrew Luck v HOU, $10,100: First thing’s first, Luck’s the realest, if by “realest”, you mean he’s the most likely to throw for 300 yards. He has missed the mark only three times in thirteen weeks, with the most recent “failure” being his 294 yard effort against Cleveland. That consistency is perfect for a cash-game QB, where avoiding a bust is the name of the game. The 25.6 he put up against the Texans earlier this year would be the perfect 2.5 PT/$K return you’re looking for on a sixth of your total salary. Could he do more than that? If you’re lucky.
TOURNEY
Eli Manning v WAS, $7,500: The key with a big field quarterback play is the ceiling. You are willing to accept more risk, if the potential reward is higher. Few quarterbacks offer a wider range of outcomes than Eli. If Good Eli shows up, you could see 4.5 PT/$K on five total TDs. In fact, you would have seen it if you had tuned into Good Eli’s first game with Washington in Week 4. To get that upside, you’re willing to risk Bad Eli showing up, who has more games throwing 4+ INTs (6) than times Soulja Boy’s Crank Dat digital single went platinum (5). Who would Soulja Boy suggest start Eli Manning in a Tourney lineup this week? Yooooooooouuuuuuuuuu!
Running Backs
CASH
Fred Jackson v GB, $6,600: There’s something about being old that makes you dependable. If the Bills are ahead, they’ll hand it to Ol F Jax, and if they’re behind, they’ll throw it to him, like the 14 times they did against the Broncos last week. If they get in close, they’ll probably let him have it then, too. Without that touchdown, Jackson still was near 2 PT/$K last week. This week, at home, against a Packers team that has allowed a short RB TD in each of the last two weeks, he’ll get that TD.
Look, I’m not suggesting you watch the game; it’s going to be ugly. I’m just going to say that he’s a safe bet to return value, and as Bubba Sparxxx said, “How else can I say it? I don’t speak no other languages!”
TOURNEY
CJ Anderson at SD, $8,000: The ten-or-so priciest running backs have an upside the rest of the NFL’s ball carriers don’t have, so for a huge field tournament, spending at RB is the way to go. The more pertinent question is “What does Anderson have to do to get priced higher than 9th?” In a Bottom-5 running back match-up against Buffalo last week, he put up three scores. The week before that, he had over 25 FanDuel fantasy points against a Chiefs defense that, coming in, had allowed only one running back to score. Before that? Just 195-and-a-score versus Miami. Should I go on? At only 5’ 8”, maybe he’d get some more respect if he was taller, ‘cause he’s definitely a baller.
Wide Receivers
CASH
Odell Beckham Jr. v WAS, $8,500: Beckham is nearly 6 feet tall, so I don’t know what he has to do to get elite pricing. For wide receivers, busting doesn’t mean being ineffective; it means not getting the ball at all. That’s why paying for wide receivers in a cash-game is a raise-the-floor proposition. Not getting the ball is not a problem that Beckham, the fourth most targeted receiver over the last five weeks, has. If the ball comes his way, he’s going to catch it because he can basically fly. Also, in a cash format, you’re much less concerned that he’s hot, owned in nearly 19% of last week’s Sunday Million lineups . Oh, and those two things are correlated, as MIMS pointed out: He’s hot cause he flies. This is why, this is why, this is why he’s hot.
TOURNEY
Marquess Wilson v NO, $4,500: There’s no certainty about how the Bears’ offense will look without Brandon Marshall, who was officially put on the IR with a “broken inside”. That’s where the risk comes in. The reward? The Saints, a top ten match-up for wide receivers. If Coach Trestman lets the talented rookie step into Marshall’s role as the high volume guy in a pass-happy offense, it won’t matter how high you set the ceiling because as Macklemore explains, the ceiling can’t hold him.
Tight Ends
CASH
Martellus Bennett v NO, $6,200: It isn’t like Wilson is going to catch EVERY pass! With Marshall out, Bennett could see an uptick as well. Tight ends have been a barren wasteland this season, but with any receiving position, your best chance at raising the floor is raising your targets. If you asked who has been the top targeted tight end over the last five weeks, Bennett would stand up. Can’t you just see Bennett and Wilson split out to the top of the formation, ready to run complementary routes through the Saints sieve-y secondary? Wilson isn’t sure of the audible snap count, so Bennett whispers to him “when I move, you move, just like that.”
TOURNEY
Delanie Walker v NYJ, $5,300: Few tight ends are “big play guys,” but Walker is one of them. Among TEs with at least 40 grabs, Walker ranks 2nd in yards per reception. With Justin Hunter out with the same “broken inside” that Marshall’s got, there’s one less Titan to step into that deep threat role.
I make lineups often on Saturday nights, and I drink often on Saturday nights. Walker might be my favorite play of the week. So if you hear some slurred singing blaring from my house Saturday, pay no attention. That’ll just be my little serenade to Walker: You. You’ve got what I need! You are my tight end. Oh, you are my tight end!
As you’re building your lineups this week, consider not just what you think a player will do, but also what the range of outcomes is and why that might fit better in one game versus another. Once you’ve found your high floor cash players and high ceiling tournament plays, don’t over think it. Just say to yourself, Whoomp! There it is.