Kevin Cole's 2018 NFL Betting Model: Week 1
Along with working extensively on NFL projections this season, I’m also putting the data to use projecting game outcomes and scores. We can, of course, apply these projections against the going betting spreads and over/under totals to see where there might be value.
In addition, this information can provide value in DFS by finding teams who are likely to outperform their point totals implied by spread and over/under.
Methodology
The betting model incorporates roughly seven years of historical data to train the model and it was tested on the 2016-2017 seasons, yielding hit rates of roughly 60%. While the model has shown promising results, it is still a work in progress and needs additional testing to boost out-of-sample performance. The numbers below are best viewed as a tool, not the definitive answers.
The model incorporates multiple rolling periods or opponent-adjusted data for offense and defense, adjustments for pace, and adjustment for quarterbacks. Non-quarterback additions and injuries are not built into the model. If you believe Khalil Mack is worth multiple points per game for the Bears defense, make adjustments accordingly.
The model also looks at QB and team stats together, which can hold down the numbers for teams like the Packers who have an excellent QB returning, yet their trailing numbers reflect poor QB play.
The model does not yet account for weather, which isn’t a big concern this weekend. High winds could be a player in Cleveland, so keep that it mind.
“Spread Pick” highlighted in green means the favorite is projected to beat the spread by at least two points. Those highlighted in green means the underdog is projected to beat the spread by at least two points. “O/U Pick” is green for games predicted to go over by at least three points, red of games predicted to go under by at least three points.
Numbers are as of Thursday at roughly 5 p.m. ET
And a closer look at projected points scored versus implied total. Teams highlighted in green could be good places to look for DFS options, the opposite being true for those highlighted in red.
