Can Kliff Kingsbury Win NFL Coach of the Year? Here are his Odds at Arizona Sportsbooks
Can Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury win NFL Coach of the Year? He’ll have to deliver the franchise’s first winning season since 2015 to do so. Follow along as Sloan Piva looks at Kingsbury’s odds to win the award and tells you whether it’s a smart bet to make once Arizona sportsbooks go live this Thursday, September 9th. Also, don’t miss out on your chance to claim over $500 in FREE BETS at Arizona sportsbooks today!
On January 8, 2019, long before COVID-19 swept the globe into a panicked frenzy, Kliff Kingsbury became the head coach—and offensive coordinator—of the Arizona Cardinals. This was the first NFL coaching gig in the short professional career of the baby-faced 39-year old, who had bounced around eight different NFL and CFL teams in the early 2000s before retiring as a player and embarking on a collegiate coaching path.
The Cardinals allowed Kingsbury a fresh start, and an offense he could essentially make his own in no time at all. Gone with Josh Rosen and Sam Bradford, enter via No. 1 draft pick Kyler Murray. Kingsbury and Murray would grow together, just as Kingsbury grew with the impressive list of names in his quarterback tree: Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech, Baker Mayfield (also at Tech), Case Keenum (Univ. of Houston), and Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M).
Initially, Kingsbury’s hire came with rumblings across the league and media outlets. Kingsbury was inexperienced and had recently been fired by his alma mater in what was his first head coaching gig. But two and a half years later, nobody seems to be doubting the move. The Cardinals have improved by just about every metric and measure in the two seasons since Kingsbury and Murray took over the helm, and they may just find themselves in the playoff picture if they make another leap this season.
Let’s go over Kingsbury’s odds to win NFL Coach of the Year in 2021, and discuss whether he’s a good bet to accomplish the feat in his third season as Cardinals coach.
NFL Coach of the Year Odds at Arizona Sportsbooks
- KEVIN STEFANSKI+1200*
- SEAN MCVAY+1500
- KYLE SHANAHAN+1500
- BRANDON STALEY+1500
- BRIAN FLORES+1500
- FRANK REICH+1500
- SEAN MCDERMOTT+1800
- ARTHUR SMITH+1800
- ANDY REID+1800
- ROBERT SALEH+1800
- BILL BELICHICK+2000
- SEAN PAYTON+2200
- BRUCE ARIANS+2200
- JOHN HARBAUGH+2200
- JOE JUDGE+2500
- VIC FANGIO+2500
- MIKE ZIMMER+2500
- MATT NAGY+2500
- MIKE VRABEL+2500
- RON RIVERA+3000
- PETE CARROLL+3000
- MATT LAFLEUR+3000
- MIKE MCCARTHY+3000
- MATT RHULE+3300
- URBAN MEYER+3300
- MIKE TOMLIN+3300
- KLIFF KINGSBURY+3500
- JON GRUDEN+4000
- DAN CAMPBELL+5000
- NICK SIRIANNI+5000
- ZAC TAYLOR+6600
- DAVID CULLEY+8000
Cardinals’ Head Coach is a Longshot
Kingsbury’s odds to win Coach of the Year this season are long—35-to-1, or +3500, to be exact. That’s BetMGM’s (and other sportsbooks) way of telling you he won’t be adding to his trophy case anytime soon. Only five NFL coaches have longer odds to win COY—Jon Gruden (Raiders), Dan Campbell (Lions), Nick Sirianni (Eagles), David Culley (Texans), and Zac Taylor (Bengals).
What do the five teams those coaches represent have in common, you may ask? None of them are considered bona fide playoff contenders, never mind Super Bowl hopefuls. I guess the tribe has spoken when it comes to Kingsbury—unless you share my affinity for low-risk, high-value longshot bets.
Unlike those five other teams, the Cardinals have a legitimate shot of making the playoffs. They proved last year that they can hang with the best competition in the league, including the Rams, Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, and 49ers. Murray took a huge leap forward, getting named to the Pro Bowl in just his second season, and DeAndre Hopkins continued to prove his worth as a top-three receiver in the game.
This time last year, yours truly picked the Buffalo Bills as a dark-horse team to go the distance. The Bills ended up going 13-3 and making it all the way to the AFC Championship, where they lost 38-24 to the reigning-champion Chiefs. Buffalo’s success was due in large part to third-year QB Josh Allen coming up with head coach Sean McDermott in every year of his NFL career. They grew together, and built their team up with high-quality fits and high-character people.
We could very well witness the same type of transformation in Glendale this season. Kingsbury and Murray took over for a three-win team, and in the first year bumped it up to a five-win team. Last season, Murray separated himself from the crowd and the Cardinals went 8-8. This season, I have them going at least 10-7 and making the playoffs. That’s enough to put Kingsbury in the discussion of Coach of the Year.
Coach of the Year Betting Trend
Look back at the history of Coach of the Year winners, and you’ll notice an uncanny trend. Most of the time, the coaches pulling down the award have the benefit of coaching a quarterback who has grown by leaps and bounds in recent history.
Last year, we saw Browns coach Kevin Stefanski win after the aforementioned Baker Mayfield took a huge step forward. The year before, Ravens coach John Harbaugh won after “(player-popup #lamar-jackson)Lamar Jackson”:/players/lamar-jackson-328097’s breakout MVP season. Sean McVay won in “(player-popup #jared-goff)Jared Goff”:/players/jared-goff-35673’s Pro Bowl sophomore campaign, when the Rams went from 4-12 to 11-4. Jason Garrett, Ron Rivera, Bruce Arians, and Jim Harbaugh probably all thanked their QBs first when they won their awards (Dak Prescott, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Colin Kaepernick, we see you).
Long story short, if Murray takes a giant step forward this season and leads Arizona to the playoffs, nobody would be surprised if Kingsbury ended up winning Coach of the Year honors. The Cardinals could go 10-7, or 11-6—a seven or eight-win turnaround from three seasons ago—and Kingsbury would be more likely to win Coach of the Year than Murray would be to win MVP. Team turnarounds garner Coach of the Year honors, while individual statistical milestones tend to garner MVPs.
The Right Composition for Team Success
Another factor in Kingsbury’s favor is the fact that he and GM Steve Kaim have built a superb supporting cast around Murray, while also steadily improving defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s defensive personnel. This Cardinals franchise proved last season that it can compete with the cream of the crop of the NFL—this season, they could very well beat the best of the best.
Arizona made improvements across the board over the offseason. The Cards acquired three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, who should complement fellow pass-rusher Chandler Jones perfectly if he can stay healthy. They then acquired seven-time Pro Bowler A.J. Green, who should decrease the amount of double-teams and zone coverage defenses try to throw at DeAndre Hopkins. Kaim also worked to improve Murray’s offensive line, trading for center Rodney Hudson and signed guard Brian Winters, and he got running back James Conner at a huge discount ($1.75 mil).
The Cardinals also won big in the 2021 NFL Draft. Kaim selected stud linebacker Zaven Collins with the 16th overall pick, then grabbed speedy slot receiver Rondale Moore in the second round. Three of Arizona’s next four picks were defensive backs, obviously addressing the elephant in the room after cornerback Patrick Peterson’s departure.
Collins and Moore will learn from the veterans around them, including Watt, Jones, Hopkinsm, and Green. Safety Budda Baker will continue to lead the secondary, and help establish the young defensive backs around him. Overall, this team improved mightily over the offseason, which should translate to more wins and a potential Wild Card berth.
Strength of Schedule Matters
There’s a reason why sportsbooks have Kingsbury as a longshot to win Coach of the Year. Arizona has one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL this season—the Cards are facing nine teams that made the playoffs in 2020, and their opponents had a cumulative winning percentage of .507 last season. They also play on the road in four of their first six games, they have a late-season bye (Week 12), and their most difficult stretch occurs between Weeks 13 and 18.
If Arizona can reach double-digit wins despite that daunting schedule—and make the playoffs in spite of the strength of its division (which features Seattle, LA Rams, and San Francisco)—I think Kingsbury has as good a shot of winning Coach of the Year as anyone. Many of the past coaches who have taken this award down have either taken a team from the bottom to the top, or brought their squad to the playoffs against all odds. Kingsbury would be doing both if the Cardinals make the postseason this year, and the first person he will thank is Murray.
Verdict: Bet $50 on Kingsbury winning NFL Coach of the Year, rejoice at the $1,800 payout if and when he wins it this football season.
Image Credit: Imagn