Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Prediction
NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Monday Night Football odds for the Raiders vs. Chiefs. Use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get a $1000 risk-free bet on the game!
Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds
| Raiders Odds | +7 |
| Chiefs Odds | -7 |
| Over/Under | 51.5 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 10 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature the Las Vegas Raiders traveling to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a pivotal AFC West showdown. Oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy victory in this primetime affair for Kansas City, pricing the Chiefs as 7-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Las Vegas Raiders
Entering play on Monday, Las Vegas ranks 10th in the NFL in points per game. Yet, their offense has been far from reliable through the first month of action. In Week 1, the Raiders scored only three points in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers. In Week 2, this offense scored only three points in the second half plus overtime against the Arizona Cardinals – blowing a 20-0 lead in the process. In Week 3 and Week 4, this group finally sustained their production for 60 minutes – capped off by a dominant 212 rushing yards against the Denver Broncos in a Week 4 victory – Las Vegas’ first of the new campaign. Derek Carr has been erratic, already having thrown four interceptions. The offensive line continues to be an area of concern, with Kolton Miller, Alex Bars, Andre James, Dylan Parham, and Jermaine Eluemunor forming one of the worst run-blocking units in the entire league. Facing a strong Kansas City run defense, the Raiders could struggle to score points this evening.
On the defensive side of the ball, Las Vegas has been surprisingly mediocre early in the year – which is a major upgrade from abysmal, which is how this unit performed in 2021. After four weeks, the Raiders rank 15th in defensive EPA/play, and have the top-ranked rush EPA/play in the NFL, per rbsdm. The larger issue in this matchup is that the Raiders have been woefully incapable of slowing down opposing passing attacks recently – allowing 7.5 yards-per-attempt through the air and a 68.9 percent completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. Facing Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to help this secondary unit improve upon those numbers.
Kansas City Chiefs
There are more than a few strong arguments to be made that this is the best Kansas City team that Patrick Mahomes has ever had around him. Offensively, the Chiefs rank second in points per game, third in 3rd down conversion percentage, third in sacks allowed per pass attempt, fourth in Red Zone percentage, fourth in first downs per game and seventh in time of possession. The absence of Tyreek Hill has allowed for more rhythm and timing in the offensive gameplan on a week-to-week basis, which has only made Mahomes more difficult to defend. The Raiders’ extremely weak linebacker corps is particularly ill-equipped to slow down Travis Kelce in the middle of the field in this intra-division affair. Rock Ya-Sin and Johnathan Abram have been borderline liabilities in the secondary for Las Vegas – an area of the field that this Kansas City offense should have little trouble exploiting in primetime.
Defensively, the Chiefs addressed a number of glaring weaknesses – investing on this side of the ball heavily in the draft. The run defense has been stout, allowing only 3.3 yards-per-carry through four games, which is second only to the San Francisco 49ers. The secondary unit has been much better as well, ranking 8th in opponent yards-per-attempt. If Kansas City can get ahead early in this contest, they should be able to force the Raiders into a pass-heavy game script – a situation in which Derek Carr has rarely performed well during his career.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Picks & Predictions
Oddsmakers, rightfully, have the Chiefs priced as a touchdown favorite in this spot. Kansas City has the better quarterback, a better offensive line, a better defensive line, and a much better secondary unit. However, a touchdown spread in an intra-division game on Monday Night Football is still far from an easy line to cover. If looking for a same-game-parlay, it makes sense to tease the spread and the total in this one – take the Raiders to cover two touchdowns and these two offenses to produce at least 45 points.
PICK: Raiders +14.5, Over 44.5 (-121 via FanDuel)
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