League of Legends DFS: EU LCS - Friday
Thursday’s games were headlined by Origen stepping up and finding the form they were expected to have coming into the season. They had the day’s only definitive win, blasting Unicorns of Love in just 25:48. Zven and Mithy were beasts, controlling the game from start to finish. Going forward we can return to seeing Origen as a frontrunner who may have just found their form.
Elsewhere, Elements continued to be a surprise. Although Elements pair of wins so far have come over mid-to-bottom teams, two wins in three games and some huge fantasy scores suggests that we should at least begin to consider that Elements may not be the relegation team so many thought they were a lock to be. Another weak opponent in Giants gives Elements a chance to prove that they can consistently beat their fellow lower-tier teams. I remain skeptical to say the least, but oddsmakers do appear to be ever so slowly buying into their chances each game.
Odds & Matchups
Origen (-145) vs. Team Vitality (+119)
Elements (+102) vs. Giants Gaming (-124)
Fnatic (-247) vs. Unicorns of Love (+198)
ROCCCAT (-162) vs. Splyce (+133)
H2k Gaming (-226) vs. G2 Esports (+182)
Top
Steve, EL ($6,000) – While the concerns over just how good(or bad) Elements is, Steve has been a constant for them. He has the highest KP% in the EU LCS among top laners, giving us reason to believe that if Elements continues to be successful that he’s likely to put up more consistent scores than other top laners. Three games is a small sample size, but it can sometimes be difficult to find top laners who aren’t stuck on Dyrus island for most of their games.
Wunderwear, SPL ($5,700) – Splyce showed some life on Thursday against Vitality, pushing them just enough to make it appear that the team may be ready to turn the corner. This is clearly the most risky player I’ll have recommended, but punting in the top lane position is something that can be considered in an effort to get more than one carry on your roster. It’s worth noting that ROCCAT top fredy122 is not particularly threatening, which should allow freedom to farm and roam when necessary.
Jungle
Trick, G2 ($4,900) – It’s not a secret that H2k is a significantly better team than G2. H2k has their sights set on winning the split and making noise at the eventual 2016 World Championship. That said, this price is criminally low. Low enough that G2 can lose this game with Trick still likely to pay off his tag. Anything short of a H2k near perfect win should result in enough opportunity for Trick to at least find his way to double digit points. Consider using him as a one off on a team where you’re paying up for multiple expensive players in a team stack.
Spirit, FNC ($6,100) – We’re just three games in, but I can tell that Spirit is going to be my most used jungler this season. He should have a consistently high KP% all year and a sneakily high total team damage%, especially if we’re lucky enough to continue to see him on Kindred in a good chunk of Fnatic’s games.
Mid
PowerOfEvil, OG ($7,400) – POE had his first strong game of the season against his former employer and looked ready to really take off as the new mid laner of Origen. Vitality looks strong and Nukeduck’s @10 numbers are actually superior to POE’s through three games, but there’s enough variance in that to still believe the Origen mid will surpass him in time. The price isn’t particularly prohibitive for a player of his caliber and he is more likely to play damage heavy champions than some other mid laners.
Febiven, FNC ($7,700) – With just five kills in three games, Febiven’s fantasy relevance has been limited. Make no mistake though, he can and will rack up kills and assists provided that Fnatic games don’t all stay as tame as Thursday’s against H2k was. He finished ahead of all other mid laners in both kills and assists last summer and while Fnatic winning all 18 of their games certainly helps, he was a big part of that. Febiven also leads Fnatic in total DMG%, which is fairly uncommon as most teams are lead by their ADC.
ADC
FORG1VEN, H2k ($8,400) – Given that I like G2 Esports to make this interesting, I think it makes sense to pay up for the current leader in kills. FORG1VEN’s line through three games is an absurd 16/1/12 with 90.3% KP. Essentially all of his statistical output has been incredible. Even in Thursday’s loss to Fnatic he still had a respectable output in fantasy. This game against G2 has a real chance to be one of the bloodiest of the season and that bodes well for FORG1VEN even at $8,400. If you need any further evidence about just how hard he’s carrying, his over 40% total damage for Fnatic is by far the most in Europe.
MrRalleZ, EL ($7,300) – Not only was MrRalleZ one of the most impressive players on Thursday, counterpart Adryh was one of the worst. Adryh made several mistakes which placed his typically backline Corki directly into the middle of fights. Any missteps like that are going to be punished by MrRalleZ and Elements. Adryh’s CSD@10 is also extremely poor while MrRalleZ is third highest among ADCs. Bot lane should be an advantage for Elements and could ultimately be where this game is snowballed out of.
Team
The favorite: Fnatic ($4,800) – There’s truly no gimme on this slate if you agree that G2 could surprise H2k, but Fnatic is as good as it will come. Unicorns of Love showed nothing on Thursday and these things don’t typically fix themselves overnight.
The upset: Splyce ($3,800) – It feels like we’ve been here before, but Splyce has too much talent to spend the entire season floundering. ROCCAT are simply okay. They’re a beatable team and this is a near must win for Splyce if they’re going to stay out of the relegation conversation all split long.