League of Legends DFS: EU LCS - Friday
We passed the halfway mark of the season on Thursday with Giants defeating ROCCAT in the final game of the day for their first win of the season. If Giants was to beat anyone this split, it almost had to be now fellow one win team ROCCAT. Unfortunately for both teams, neither are likely to find many wins the rest of the way.
Also on Thursday was Team Vitality proving that they are still in the conversation with the best teams in Europe. They were simply better than G2 on the day and immediately get another chance to show what they’re made of against former league favorites Origen on Friday.
Odds & Matchups
Origen (-119) vs. Team Vitality (-102)
Fnatic (-122) vs. Unicorns of Love (+101)
H2k Gaming (-138) vs. G2 Esports (+114)
Elements (-112) vs. ROCCAT (-108)
Splyce (-190) vs. Giants Gaming (+155)
Top
Steve, EL ($6,300) – Second only to Origen’s Odoamne in KP among top laners, Steve is squarely in consideration against ROCCAT. Often out of position, fredy122 is a borderline LCS caliber player. He’s certainly not alone in that sense on ROCCAT. With 126 deaths in eight games, ROCCAT could very well find a way to finish this season in an even worse position than Giants. Steve is no superstar and neither are his Elements teammates, but they’re facing a team with an average game time of over 36 minutes, the highest in Europe. Steve will have ample opportunities to pay off a middle of the road price such as this.
Cabochard, VIT ($6,000) – Coming into the season I thought Spirit of Fnatic would be my biggest go to player, and I certainly did not think it would be anyone from the top lane. Spirit is starting to look like that player again, but Cabochard has been that player all along. I’m not buying for a second that Origen is a favorite of any kind against Vitality and will be locking in Cabo at this kind of price without blinking. Even if SoaZ ($6,600) and Cabochard’s prices were reversed, I’d still be on Cabochard.
Jungle
Spirit, FNC ($6,000) – Well, nobody said I can’t have two go to players. Really though, this seems like a clear choice on Friday. Unicorns were absolutely destroyed by Jankos yesterday to the tune of 8/4/10. The game spiraled out of control with H2k showing a lack of discipline in the late game, but it was Jankos scoring easy kills that gave H2k the lead early in the game. Rudy of UOL managed a whopping eight deaths. This kind of jungler discrepancy is extremely difficult to overcome and should lead to Spirit easily reaching at least 20 DraftKings points.
Trick, G2 ($5,900) – For the first time since losing Ryu, H2k looked beatable. A SELFIE reverse baron throw opened the door to Unicorns and H2k only just barely managed to pull out the win. G2 may have taken their first loss against Vitality, but they are far too talented to stay out of the win column for long. Additionally, any time we can get trick at under $6,000 it’s going to be difficult to say no. G2’s aggressive style will nearly always result in kills, even in losses. H2k is still a very strong team even in Ryu’s absence and that’s clear, however the downgrade to SELFIE has slowly been showing and G2 is more than capable of pushing that edge to a win.
Mid
Sencux, SPL ($7,700) – Being the highest priced mid laner on the board is unsual for Sencux, but the price is worth it none the less against Giants. Allowing nearly five kills per game to mid laners, Giants are by far the worst against the position. Splyce and their disappointing season have been a talking point in this article and Sencux’s rock-bottom CSD@10 isn’t helping, however I maintain that lane opponent xPePii is a worse player. This is an opportunity for Splyce to spark something out of a poor season. A convincing win will be expected of them, or roster changes could be sooner rather than later.
Febiven, FNC ($7,100) – Coming up big against Elements, Febiven gave us exactly what we needed. The Fnatic star lead his team in damage dealt to champions and brought his season KP up above 70% where it belongs. Expect more of the same against a disjointed Unicorns of Love. I still love Unicorns mid Fox, who hasn’t had less than four kills in a game in three weeks, but this may finally be the time his numbers fall off. Febi and Fnatic should be in control early on, especially with the significant jungler advantage.
ADC
MrRalleZ, EL ($7,200) – As the only player on Elements with more kills than deaths, MrRalleZ can be rostered with confidence against ROCCAT. He’s relied on heavily by Elements and is their best player by a considerable margin. He leads all ADCs in KP and there is very little chance that Elements win this game, as I expect, without him having a big game. I expect most people will prefer other carries over RalleZ, but he’s right there with them, especially at this price, given his opponent.
Hjarnan, VIT ($6,800) – This boils down to me simply not buying that Origen are a favorite against Vitality. Even if they are, it would be a negligible amount. Hjarnan is $600 cheaper than Origen ADC Zven and while I see Zven as the better player, Vitality is the better team. Damage dealers at under $7,000 who can be genuinely considered a favorite typically only happen on blatant pricing errors. This isn’t necessarily that, but DraftKings is undervaluing Vitality and drastically overvaluing Origen. Consider Hjarnan in all formats.
Team
The favorite: Fnatic ($4,700) – Finding their ground and against a team that’s forced to use a substitute, Fnatic is a fine cash game option on Friday.
The upset: G2 Esports ($4,500) – Too good to go 0-2 for the week, G2 gets a chance to knock off the first place team. Beating H2k while Ryu remains out is a must for teams who want to challenge for the top spot in Europe.