League of Legends DFS: EU LCS - Thursday
Heading into week three of the League Championship Series the biggest story is the continued issues with visas. Several teams are facing problems stemming from visas and their players legal status to play professionally within either Germany or the United States. Echo Fox became the first ever NA LCS team to be forced to forfeit a game, while other teams had no choice but to use substitutes. The good news is that this problem appears to be in the process of being tackled by all teams across the LCS, but the bad news is that it means we have to stay on top of the news as more and more players are being ruled out.
For week three, it looks like Diamondprox of Unicorns of Love, Edward of ROCCAT and Ryu of H2k Gaming are all ruled out with visa problems. All we can do is adjust our strategy accordingly and hope Riot and team owners are able to resolve these issues permanently as soon as possible.
On the Rift, it’s been quite an interesting and entertaining season so far. A little bit of luck, decent play and weak schedules somehow have Elements and G2 Esports in 1st and 2nd place in Europe. I can’t imagine that will last, but it’s a surprise even despite their weak early season schedules. Let’s get to Thursday’s games.
Odds & Matchups
Splyce (-152) vs. Giants Gaming (+125)
Origen (-290) vs. ROCCAT (+229)
Fnatic (-240) vs. G2 Esports (+193)
Unicorns of Love (-174) vs. Elements (+142)
H2k Gaming (-119) vs. Team Vitality (-102)
Top
Wunderwear, SPL ($6,400) – One of my most rostered players and subsequently one of my most disappointing players. A season line of 7/11/11 gives the Splyce top laner a KDA of just 1.6. I’m willing to forgive and forget, though. Splyce stared extremely slow to begin the season, but a dominant win over ROCCAT brought some life into the team. I still believe in Splyce’s chances to move into the top half of the table and beating up on 0-4 Giants Gaming is a necessity if they’re going to do that. Wunderwear is comfortably priced at $6,400 and will again be one of my most owned tops.
Gamsu, FNC ($7,100) – The top lane is often a viable role to punt and save for carry spots, but Gamsu leads tops with 14 kills and a 70.5% KP. Oddly, his CSD@10 is one of the lowest in the league, but in just four games any number of factors could result in a misleading number, especially of that size. Paying up for Gamsu in a game where G2 will likely need to force a few fights to try to swing the game into their favor has a chance to pay off nicely.
Jungle
Shook, VIT ($5,200) – With H2k star Ryu being forced to sit out on Thursday, EU LCS Kill Participation leader Shook becomes too interesting to ignore. SELFIE of Echo Fox will play for H2k temporarily while Ryu is out, meaning he would have had to fly from Los Angeles to Berlin sometime in the last couple of days. He likely hasn’t had more than one day with his temporary teammates and it will be a big blow to H2k. Vitality should make this competitive, if not outright win and Shook will certainly more than cover $5,200 if that’s the case.
Spirit, FNC ($6,500) – Fnatic’s schedule thus far has been the most difficult in the league, having already played H2k, Vitality, Origen and Unicorns. Even so, Spirit has only had less than 18 DraftKings points in one game. A nearly 20% damage share and a 75% KP keep Spirit in my article on an almost daily basis. He’s a nearly automatic play regardless of matchup, especially as Fnatic begins to face easier opponents.
Mid
PowerOfEvil, OG ($6,600) – I have no real explanation for how Draftkings arrived at ROCCAT being priced so much higher than opponent Origen, but here we are. It won’t take a genius to arrive at the conclusion that Origen players were mispriced on Thursday’s slate, but we still want to proceed with caution. Even in cash games I expect to see a lot of Origen stacks which is something I won’t be doing. Two or three Origen players in cash is reasonable, but there is simply too much variance in League of Legends games for me to want to full stack in cash games.
Sencux, SPL ($7,300) – Negative @10 numbers by Sencux are combated by a damage share of 31.2%. He’s one of the highest upside players on the board today. Facing winless Giants Gaming, Sencux should have every opportunity to snowball himself to a big game. Giants mid xPePii’s season line is 5/12/16, tied for the most deaths among mid laners and by far the worst KDA.
ADC
Zven, OG ($7,000) – I mentioned above that I’m not going to go all-in on Origen just because they are underpriced, but Zven and POE are the must haves. There’s significant risk in taking four members of Origen as we have seen teams that were unexpected to win do just that several times already this LCS season. That said, Zven and POE are simply must plays in cash for my money.
MrRalleZ, EL ($7,000) – Perhaps the most underrated player so far this season and the biggest reason that Elements has yet to succumb to the assumed inevitable losing record. MrRalleZ has an impressive KDA of 7.6 and is statistically dominating across the board. Elements have weak spots, but as long as MrRalleZ continues to play this well, they’ll stave off a few extra would-be losses.
Team
The favorite: Origen ($3,800) – Not much to say here. Will be extremely high owned because they’re extremely underpriced.
The upset: Elements ($3.700) – A good pivot from Origen in tournaments given the similarity in price. Diamondprox is an excellent jungler who Unicorns of Love will desperately miss.