League of Legends DFS: EU LCS - Thursday
Another week of LCS is here as we approach the halfway point of the season on Thursday. European teams will have played half of their 18 game season by the end of the day and at this point we have a good idea about who these teams are.
The game of the day for me is when G2 takes on Vitality. As we know, G2 has been the surprise of the season and are even favored against the more star-studded Vitality. Vitality, however, are still one of the top teams in Europe and a win here vaults them into contention for a top two finish in the standings. Conflicting playstyles, along with the importance of this game in the standings, make this the most must see game of the day for me.
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Odds & Matchups
H2k Gaming (-190) vs. Unicorns of Love (+155)
Fnatic (-325) vs. Elements (+253)
Origen (-360) vs. Splyce (+277)
G2 Esports (-157) vs. Team Vitality (+129)
ROCCAT (-275) vs. Giants Gaming (+218)
Top
Odoamne, H2k ($6,700) – A lackluster start to the season resulted in Odoamne scoring just four kills in H2k’s opening five games. Perhaps they’ve realized a traditional split pushing top lane isn’t an option with the continued absence of Ryu as a pair of monster games on Poppy have turned Odoamne’s fantasy season around. Now leading top laners in KP with over 75%, Odo has played himself into contention at this kind of price. Opposite him will be Unicorns’ Vizicsacsi, who is not an appetizing early game opponent, but any deficiencies suffered in the lane phase should fall away as H2k’s superior talent takes over later in the game.
Cabochard, VIT ($5,700) – G2 have more than proven that they are for real and this is no slight on what they’ve done so far. Kikis is a weak spot if there is one however, as he is the only G2 member who has negative @10 numbers. Kikis is likely to be picked on early by Cabochard and Vitality. Top lane will be a must win for Vitality if they are to come out on top against G2. Expect Cabochard to have success in this game regardless of the victor, but that very well may be Vitality.
Jungle
Spirit, FNC ($7,000) – Prices for junglers aren’t quite as friendly as they typically are for this slate, but even at $7,000, Spirit is the top play of the day. Elements have allowed the most kills to junglers this season and are hot on the heels of ROCCAT and Giants for most deaths in Europe, even when Elements have two more wins than Giants. Spirit’s 22 kills are behind only Trick among junglers. Fnatic’s somewhat underperforming bottom lane will require attention against MrRalleZ. Elements have just enough talent to keep this game interesting enough that Spirit can pay off his steep price.
Jankos, H2k ($6,400) – At $6,400, Jankos is underpriced. Unicorns of Love are a formidable opponent, but Jankos has been one of Europe’s best junglers. This game may be won and lost in the jungle with Unicorns still without Diamondprox. Substitute Rudy has filled in admirably and deserves credit for that, but he’s not at Jankos’ level and that will be the difference. “Hi its Rudy” as an undefeated LCS player isn’t going to last.
Mid
Betsy, ROC ($7,900) – It’s tough to want to be in the business of paying $7,900 for ROCCAT players. The button seems to get smaller and smaller as you stare at it and wonder whether this is crazy or not. I’m here to tell you that it’s actually the easiest play of the day. Lane opponent xPePii is awful. Betsy on the other hand actually has the highest CSD@10 of all EU LCS mid laners. There are a few factors that can sway that, but it’s a pretty strong indicator that Betsy won’t struggle with xPePii. Giants are the worst team in the League Championship Series. Yes, worse than Renegades. It will surprise exactly zero people if they finish this split with the reverse Fnatic. Roster players against Giants without hesitation.
Febiven, FNC ($8,100) – Speaking of poor mid laners, Febiven’s opponent Eika may be at the bottom of the EU LCS rankings. Febiven is unlucky to have recorded just 19 kills in Fnatic’s eight games this season. A few blowups are in order. Fnatic’s communication has understandably taken a huge step backward from last season and the adjustment period is longer than we may have liked. Still, Fnatic has the ability and the talent to be one of the top teams in Europe. Febiven was there during Fnatic’s rise last season and can lead by example. Dusting off poor teams would be a good start.
ADC
Tabzz, ROC ($7,900) – With two games and a full week of practice to become acclimated with his new team, Tabzz gets his first chance to show whether he is the right replacement for former ADC Safir. Giant’s ADC Adryh is the least positionally sound player in Europe that I’ve seen and if Tabzz has anything to offer at the LCS level, he should be taking advantage of that. Giants allow the most kills per game to ADC in Europe. This price isn’t cheap, but Tabzz isn’t a rookie. He knows the stage and the scene and should be able to mesh with ROCCAT quickly.
Hjarnan, VIT ($6,500) – Team Vitality have the second lowest pace in Europe, while G2 have by far the highest. It’s always tough to get a read on how a game between teams with drastically different styles of play will unfold, but if G2 forces fights, Vitality can’t simply choose to not take them. G2 love to brawl and even with the lowest average game time in Europe, they still rack up both kills and deaths. There’s little risk in Hjarnan being blanked in this game with G2 averaging nearly nine deaths each game. That’s a lot of deaths for a 7-1 team. Hjarnan is about as safe as underdogs come in LCS games. At this price he can be used as a one off if needed for salary relief while still getting to roster an ADC over another position.
Team
The favorite: Team ROCCAT ($5,600) – I love to pay down for the team spot when I can, but closer matchups this week lead me to want to pay up for the team facing Giants.
The upset: Team Vitality ($3.900) – A price in the $3,000s for a team that is being underrated is an excellent tournament option. G2 are good. Really good, even. Vitality, however, are also very strong. This game can easily go either way.