League of Legends DFS: European LCS - Friday
Another day, another slate for League of Legends DFS. Thursday’s games were slower than typical which resulted in fantasy scores being way down. Outside of article regular Trick, teams were far more meticulous in their approaches, resulting in a very low kill day. Winning teams on Thursday averaged just 11.4 kills and only one team reached 15 or higher.
So what can we do with that information? Like any DFS sport, we look for trends. A control style has become popular for some of the top teams, which often results in First Blood not coming until nearly 20 minutes into the game and a lack of team fights beyond that point as death timers rise. Often highly owned, G2 Esports have been a clear exception. G2 and H2k each sport a 6-1 record so far this season, yet G2 have 19 more kills even though their games last nearly three minutes less than H2k’s on average. As the game is updated with patches, trends will change. Even if you’re not a League of Legends player, the numbers can guide your way without ever stepping onto the Rift.
Speaking of the numbers, RotoGrinders has launched research tools for eSports. They’re absolutely awesome and I recommend digging through them to become familiar.
Odds & Matchups
G2 Esports (-273) vs. Splyce (+217)
H2k Gaming (-359) vs. Elements (+277)
Team Vitality (-165) vs. Unicorns of Love (+135)
Origen (-452) vs. Giants Gaming (+337)
Fnatic (-270) vs. ROCCAT (+215)
Top
Gamsu, FNC ($7,000) – Gamsu’s numbers have hit the downswing after a 9/1/3 in the first game of the season, seeing him record the same number of kills in the next six games as the opener. A couple of poor Fnatic performances and passive play have been the cause of Gamsu’s lines slipping. ROCCAT have taken the 2nd most deaths in Europe and lane opponent fredy122 is about as friendly as they come. $7,000 is steep for a player in a statistical downturn, however this is an excellent rebound spot against a team with enough life to allow Fnatic to reach an above average amount of kills.
Cabochard, VIT ($6,700) – Vitality’s performance against Elements was outstanding from the opening minute. Cabochard’s surprise Lucian top lane pick had Elements scrambling to defend lanes throughout the entire course of the game. The only issue was Vitality’s ability to control the game with such ease was a serious hit to fantasy outlooks. There was essentially never a team fight and Cabochard was the lone Vitality member to post a good score. Cabochard wasn’t just involved in the game plan, which is hard enough to find in the top lane, rather he was the game plan. That’s a huge fantasy asset.
Jungle
Spirit, FNC ($6,700) – The Spirit we had been expecting to see finally showed up against Giants on Thursday. Giants are very much the worst team in the league and results against them are to be taken with a grain of salt, but a somewhat outside the box jungle Quinn pick and a 5/1/4 line should put some confidence into the Korean import. Additionally, at the same price point as Trick, Spirit is an excellent pivot. Regardless of the high praise Trick receives and deserves, he’s not dramatically more valuable of a pick than Spirit even at the same price.
Rudy, UOL ($5,500) – Unicorns of Love have done a fantastic job of continuing to prove that they can play well and win during the absence of Diamondprox. Rudy is the second jungler Unicorns have used since Diamondprox’s departure and played an intelligent, fearless game. While one game isn’t enough to draw any real conclusions about Rudy as a player, he was active in and out of the jungle and looked like a suitable temporary solution. To me, this is the game of the day and Rudy is by far the cheapest jungler whom we can reasonably expect to play in a competitive game with significant upside.
Mid
Perkz, G2 ($7,800) – Although Trick stole the show against Origen with seven kills, Perkz was unlucky to have not scored a few more kills. There were multiple instances of Perkz’s bursting opponents to near deaths, only for them to narrowly escape. He also did by far the most damage to champions on G2, including nearly 6,000 more than Trick. Although I can’t seem to stop changing my mind about who my favorite new LCS star is, Perkz is always in contention. His @10 numbers are consistently strong and as long as G2 continues to be willing to brawl, Perkz will continue to lead mid laners in kills.
Fox, UOL ($6,600) – Surprisingly, my favorite player to observe on Thursday wasn’t a G2 player, nor was it Cabochard or Spirit or any other star. It was a Unicorn. Fox was handed some top lane syndrome by ROCCAT as they tried to pick on him several times inside the first 20 minutes, and he evaded them expertly every single time and did not die a single time during the game. On the ropes several times, Fox made use of Viktor’s, well, Viktorness in combination with intelligent movement and escaped ugly situations on at least a few occasions. The 4/0/6 end result was rewarding finish and perhaps a sight of what’s to come for the underrated Unicorns mid.
ADC
Zven, OG ($8,300) – One of the few reasons that Origen have won any games at all, Zven has proven he is still one of the top ADC’s in the west even with Origen’s disappointing results. Somehow still with a 35/16/19 line and 10 more kills than any other ADC in Europe, he’s carrying Origen. Against Giants though, he’ll barely even have to try. Giants have over 100 deaths in their seven games and looked like a team that had given up against Fnatic, barely even making an effort to stop Fnatic at the end of the game as their Nexus fell. Origen are going to steamroll Giants and the only downside would be a sub-20 minute win.
Rekkles, FNC ($7,900) – This season has been an adjustment for Rekkles and his numbers have suffered. A -7.9 CSD@10 is uncharacteristic for the Fnatic ADC and shotcalling may be to blame. Team leading is typically not an ADC’s job, but Rekkles has been taking on the role this season and it’s fair to grant his statistics a grace period as he adjusts. I fully expect his @10 numbers to return to the positive sooner or later and for his damage share to rise, collectively meaning his 2.5 kills per game should rise.
Team
The favorite: H2k Gaming ($5,700) – Teams are getting expensive. It’s tough to choose at the top, but H2k is still the best team and the safest pick.
The upset: Unicorns of Love ($4,100) – Proving doubters wrong, Unicorns are a clear threat to win against any opponent in Europe.