League of Legends DFS: NA LCS - Saturday
So far this season League of Legends DFS contests have been consistently filling on DraftKings and that bodes quite well for potential growth for eSports daily fantasy. It’s fair to say that they’ve been fairly conservative with contest sizes, but if they continue to fill we can expect that sooner or later we should begin to see real growth. On FanDuel owned AlphaDraft, there has been significant growth over their once small contests. Extremely high entry limits on the site are a bit of a concern for me, but it’s good to see the site grow. We’ll continue to focus on DraftKings pricing, but if you’re playing on AlphaDraft much of the analysis can be applied there as well.
Steelback stole the show in a huge way on Friday to the point that it became necessary to have played him to make it anywhere near the top of the leaderboards. Fantasy scores as a whole are down as the current professional play style isn’t producing as many team fights as it has previously. Hopefully that changes if only because the games are more entertaining for viewers when teams are more regularly reaching 15 plus kills.
To catch up on what happened last weekend, here is GrindersJ’s review.
Odds & Matchups
Cloud9 (-420) vs. Team Impulse (+317)
Team SoloMid (+112) vs. Immortals (-136)
Counter Logic Gaming (-215) vs. Team Liquid (+174)
Team Dignitas (+123) vs. Renegades (-150)
NRG eSports (-200) vs. Echo Fox (+162)
Top
Huni, IMT ($6,100) – Rostering players against TSM can be a tough sell sometimes, but Immortals is the real deal. Coming off the heels of one of the most dominant wins in LCS history against Impulse last week, Immortals gets a big test against the star-studded TSM. A pathetic Impulse performance has inflated his statistics, but Huni leads the league in CSD@10 with 24. Second place has just 13. Strangely, Huni’s Kill Participation is just 48.5%, but that will almost certainly rise to above 65%. He’s simply underpriced given his ability and place on a team that may be about to make a statement as the favorite in North America.
RF Legendary, REN ($6,200) – There was noted doubt on where Renegades would be at coming into the season, but they’ve shown well early in the season. Dignitas has also fared better than expected, but are bringing in a LCS rookie to their starting lineup this week. BillyBoss has been around the scene for a while, but it would be surprising if he wasn’t the worst player in this game. Any early game mistakes in his debut could leave him fighting for CS and falling behind quickly.
Jungle
Rush, C9 ($6,600) – Team Impulse may ultimately put together one of the least successful splits in professional league history and their opponents will have significant appeal every game. That said, DraftKings didn’t hold back in pricing up Cloud9 players. Rush is the only player who doesn’t seem priced out of my range. He’s an excellent play to get a piece of Cloud9 without breaking the bank or forcing yourself to play more than one support.
Dardoch, TL ($5,100) – With IWillDominate retiring from professional play and moving into a coaching role, Dardoch takes the regins as Liquids fulltime jungler. IWD has been around for years and should be an excellent source to help the talented Dardoch become one of the best junglers in North America. Despite the loss to TSM last week, Dardoch’s 6/4/9 line put all eyes on him and his potential going forward. Liquid are more focused on developing young talent than any other team in the NA LCS and Dardoch could be proof that it’s working.
Mid
GBM, NRG ($7,700) – I’m not entirely sold that NRG should be considered this large of a favorite over an Echo Fox team that does have some genuine talent, but GBM has shown off his superior mechanics already a few times this season. A matchup with Froggen in the mid lane won’t be easy as Froggen has proved he still has something in the tank and actually leads mid laners in CSD@10. GBM seems likely to play primarily heavy damage dealers and assassins this split which bumps his value a bit relative to some other mids.
FeniX, TL ($6,500) – Team Liquid may be 0-2, but a 61 minute game against Renegades and a 17 kill loss to TSM aren’t indicative of a team that will stay winless for long. CLG is one of the best teams in North America, but squeaking by TSM in their new roster’s debut followed by being wiped off the Rift by Dignitas weren’t exactly shining moments. Only TSM has more deaths than CLG so far this split and Liquid should add to that in a big way, win or lose.
ADC
Altec, NRG ($8,300) – Altec leads all ADCs in CSD@10 with 6.5 while Keith is in the hole at -2. They’re small numbers and it seems to suggest bottom lanes are being played more cautiously, waiting for jungle assistance and teleports before any real aggression begins. The patient game isn’t hurting Altec in the box scores though, with a season line of 11/3/9. Keith remains one of my favorite young and talented players, but I like Altec and support KonKwon to be the pair dealing out the kills on Saturday.
Apollo, DIG ($7,300) – Word dropped late Friday that Renegades would be benching Freeze and bringing NA Challenge Series ADC Benjamin. Admittedly, I know next to nothing about this new player, but it’s extremely difficult to move from the Challenger Series and into a starting role of a LCS team. Advantage, Dignitas.
Team
The favorite: NRG eSports ($4,800) – This spot was going to go to Renegades, but replacing their ADC midweek gives me pause. NRG is relatively safe and still saves $500 over taking Cloud9.
The upset: Team Liquid ($3,700) – Liquid is being undervalued after an 0-2 start. Their players should be low owned and their chances of beating CLG are very realistic. Excellent option to save salary.