League of Legends DFS: NA LCS - Saturday
The weekend is here, and for the first time this season, DraftKings is making their first attempts to test just how many people are playing League of Legends contests on the site. The $3 GPP has both increased in size and dramatically reduced the amount of entries allowed. Previous iterations of the $3 tournament allowed 45 entries, with Saturday’s allowing just five. While I have doubts that the contest will fill with such a low entry limit, it’s great to see DraftKings experimenting with growth in mind. Hopefully new players continue to jump in the ring, especially with the NHL on All-Star break and NFL DFS on hiatus.
The limit on entries does change strategy if you were someone making north of 10 lineups. We now must be more selective and perhaps pay more attention to expected ownership levels than was previously necessary. I suspect the limit will rise again, but this is a good change given the scope of LoL DFS. So fill these contests and hope they get bigger! On to Saturday.
Odds & Matchups
Team Dignitas (-130) vs. Team Impulse (+107)
Team SoloMid (-155) vs. Cloud9 (+127)
NRG eSports (-225) vs. Team Liquid (+181)
Counter Logic Gaming (-253) vs. Echo Fox (+202)
Immortals (-420) vs. Renegades (+317)
Top
Seraph, TIP ($5,800) – As of this writing Seraph still appears with a big red, “O” next to his name, but he will in fact be the top laner for TIP once again this week. Both Dignitas and Impulse have been the plucky underdogs who just won’t go away and should be similarly skilled opponents. We saw the impact Seraph can make on TIP last week and it also frees up Gate to return to support. Ken will not play. Seraph and lane opponent BillyBoss have only played a combined three games this split, but Billy’s current CSD@10 of -17 is not a good start.
Hauntzer, TSM ($6,900) – The narrative of Cloud9 being undefeated with Hai in the lineup is an overblown, reddit-fused farce. Has C9 been significantly better in the two games with Hai at support instead of Bunny? Yes, absolutely, but Hai’s so called shot-calling prowess isn’t going to get anywhere close to keeping C9 undefeated. Hauntzer has proven he was the right addition for TSM, showing consistency both on the Rift and in the box score. TSM hasn’t found their stride yet this season, but there’s no reason to think they won’t soon. Hauntzer may not relinquish his top lane total kills lead all season.
Jungle
Reignover, IMT ($6,600) – This decision would be tougher had Reignover reached the $7,000 range, but is easy at under. Immortals have been crushing opponents with such ease that Reignover’s KP is only 64.2%. That’s a number that should be expected to rise, yet even despite it he still sports a season line of 12/2/31 for a 21.5 KDA. Renegades look like the weakest team in North America and without roster moves they aren’t going to suddenly become capable of contesting with Immortals.
Dardoch, TL ($4,800) – Rookie of the Week Dardoch is extremely underpriced as both the books and DraftKings seem to be overrating NRG while simultaneously underrating Team Liquid. NRG’s 3-1 record looks nice, but they have wins against Dignitas, Renegades and a forfeit win over Echo Fox. That isn’t to say I’m not high on NRG this season, but Liquid is better than they’ve shown. Both teams have a negative GD@15 currently. NRG has yet to record a First Blood. Dardoch’s aggression against a team with a weak early game could be what decides this game.
Mid
Shiphtur, DIG ($7,300) – With a 79.2% KP and a mid lane leading KDA of 7, Shiphtur has been a major part of Dignitas’ wins thus far. In the team’s upset of CLG, Shiphtur lead Dignitas in damage dealt to champions and crushed CLG with a 6/1/10 line. Negative @10 stats are more of a concern when facing elite mid laners, which Pirean is not. This game has a chance to be a slightly less skill-filled version of yesterday’s Unicorns of love vs. G2 game in which Perkz went insane with a 13/1/7 KDA. We certainly can’t expect that, but this may be the game with the most fireworks.
HuHi, CLG ($7,700) – Not that we wouldn’t be on any and all CLG players against Echo Fox even if Froggen was playing, but with the Echo Fox star still out, HuHi is a top option. Froggen would be a worthy opponent HuHi, but a Challenger Series substitute will not be. HuHi leads mids in kills and nearly leads them in deaths. Deaths are never good, but any indication of a significant amount of brawling is good for fantasy purposes. CLG as a team actually have more deaths than kills. Expect that to fly the other way against Echo Fox who couldn’t close out a win over Team Liquid last week despite having a gold lead of over 12,000 at one point.
ADC
WildTurtle, IMT ($8,900) – Turtle’s obscene price is tough to swallow today, but his even a simple peek at his game log is enough of a convincer. 24/4/19 on the season and facing a team that has had problems with engages all season. Renegades team fight engaging has been so poor this season that I’m nearly willing to predict a WildTurtle Penta Kill. I can’t quite make that guarantee, but only a low kill perfect win by Immortals will keep Turtle from reaching 25+ DraftKings points.
Piglet, TL ($6,500) – This is about as cheap as you’ll ever get to roster a former World Champion ADC. His days here in North America have never been smooth sailing, but an ADC with this price and a realistic chance to win is very difficult to pass. I greatly prefer Piglet to Sneaky and KEITH on Saturday. Even in the event of an NRG win, Liquid are unlikely to be beaten soundly and that should open the door for enough opportunity to pay off this kind of salary.
Team
The favorite: Counter Logic Gaming ($4,800) – Worth the $500 discount from Immortals, CLG against an Echo Fox team with three subs playing is a safe pick.
The upset: Team Liquid ($3,300) – I think this was probably obvious. NRG has not proven to be a top North American team by any stretch of the imagination and Liquid aren’t a bottom-feeder and shouldn’t be priced as such. This game should reveal a lot about where these two teams are actually at.