League of Legends DFS: NA LCS - Sunday
Disappointingly, the biggest story on Saturday was that Echo Fox was forced to forfeit as they were unable to field an eligible roster. Hopefully most of you were able to adjust your lineups. I can’t recall any recent forfeits of this nature, so I wouldn’t expect anything this extreme to occur again. That said, as of this writing there is no confirmation about whether Echo Fox will be ready for Sunday, so we must approach the slate with the possibility that we may need to rework lineups if it turns out that their game against Team Liquid won’t be played.
On the Rift, it was Team Impulse’s upset over Cloud9 leading headlines. Cloud9 continued to flounder when they play without Hai in the lineup. Going forward, we will have to be cautious of Cloud9 even in strong matchups if Hai isn’t in the lineup. Still perfect Immortals was the standout in performance and a showdown against NRG on Sunday will leave one team alone at the top of the North American standings.
Odds & Matchups
Team SoloMid (-285) vs. Team Dignitas (+225)
NRG eSports (+135) vs. Immortals (-165)
Counter Logic Gaming (-155) vs. Cloud9 (+127)
Team Liquid (-210) vs. Echo Fox (+170)
Renegades (-241) vs. Team Impulse (+193)
Top
Huni, IMT ($6,600) – Upside in the top lane is limited enough that I’m more than happy to get Huni as the 5th most expensive player in his role. Immortals has proven that they’re the best team in North America right now and even a tough matchup with NRG isn’t enough to sway me off an affordable Immortals player. Huni lead Immortals in kills against TSM, and played a very good game. Outside of a few moments of overextending his aggression was intelligent, which is what we want.
Seraph, TIP ($5,100) – Saturday’s result over Cloud9 isn’t a sudden reason to believe that Impulse will start winning games regularly, but their performance was solid and Seraph played a big part in that. Renegades simply haven’t shown well enough to suggest that they would be capable of easily defeating even the weakest of North American teams. Renegades have already played games of 47:57 and 61:19. They struggle with direction and ability to close games. Even if Renegades defeats Impulse as is expected of them, if the game time reaches over 40 minutes it will be hard for Seraph to not pay off $5,100.
Jungle
Xmithie, CLG ($6,000) – Even if Hai is in the Cloud9 starting lineup on Sunday I won’t be shying away from CLG players. A nearly 80% Kill Participation all but guarantees enough production to satisfy his price. C9’s lack of cohesion is further boost to the enemy jungler who is in the best position to exploit his opponents lack of communication.
Svenskeren, TSM ($6,300) – TSM as a whole hasn’t quit reached their potential yet, but a tough opening schedule is the real reason that they sit at 1-2. I’ve been impressed with Dignitas more than most and believe they’ll continue to make noise throughout the season despite their roster appearing fairly weak. Against a TSM team that needs to make a statement though, I’m off of Dignitas. Svenskeren does lead the league in deaths, but much of that stems of TSM playing kill-heavy games against other strong opponents. When Svenskeren initiates confrontation against weaker opponents, it’ll be kills and assists as opposed to more deaths.
Mid
FeniX, TL ($7,700) – FeniX was a serious threat to CLG on Saturday and although he never quite got it going, he was on the cusp of taking over the game at several moments. I’d be surprised of any opponents allow him to get the Ryze pick again. Going up against a team that may end up forced to field several subs, it won’t matter what champion he’s on. Expect FeniX to unleash on Echo Fox.
Bjergsen, TSM ($7,800) – Although it hasn’t exactly gone in our favor thus far, Bjergsen at under $8,000 will always be a consideration. Dignitas mid laner Shiphtur has finished his games with some astounding fantasy numbers so far in 2016 and has played quite well, but this is a challenge he’s not likely to fare well in. A season line of 17/3/24 for Shiphtur looks quite favorable against Bjergsen’s 6/7/21. That will change soon enough. Shiphtur’s CSD@10 is one of the lowest in the LCS and that won’t fly against Bjerg.
ADC
Stixxay, CLG ($7,900) – The prices on DraftKings don’t seem to be reflecting just how poor Cloud9 is right now. As mentioned above, we don’t yet know if it will be Hai or Bunny FuFuu on Sunday, but it may not matter. It’s not a team that is playing well and even if $7,900 can’t be considered cheap, it’s relatively affordable given that Stixxay is the 5th highest priced ADC. Stixxay still isn’t Doublelift and likely never will be, but positive @10 numbers and a respectable KP have made the rookie look like a fit for CLG. His low damage share is somewhat misleading and can be attributed to HuHi going Corki-bonkers on Liquid.
WildTurtle, IMT ($8,100) – At 16/3/15 on the season, WildTurtle has actually been unlucky to not have an even higher KDA. Despite a 31.2% damage share he has just a 60.8% KP. It’s unlikely that he remains below 70% which should increase his production even further. Immortals are just too strong for NRG in my eyes. They’re playing an excellent team game, splitting gold well and all five members are contributing with excellent individual form. That means we take their ADC as often as we can find a way to afford him.
Team
The favorite: Immortals ($4,700) – I’ll take the best team in the league when they aren’t the most expensive team almost always. I like NRG, but Immortals won’t be under $5,000 very often this season.
The upset: Team Impulse ($3,200) – This was the toughest choice of the season so far. I’m confident in the favorites more than any other day so far this season and that leaves choosing the worst team in the league as an upset pick. Renegades just aren’t there yet as a team and until they are they will be beatable by every team in the NA LCS. That’s TIP today.