League of Legends DFS: Quarterfinals
The 2015 Season World Championship returns with the first of four quarterfinal Best of Fives beginning on Thursday. No North American teams remain as CLG, TSM and Cloud9 combined for a perfect 0-10 record during the second week of the group stages which sent all three home early. All eight remaining teams are highly skilled and capable of winning their series, with perhaps the exception of AHQ who will largely be outclassed against SKT, the tournament favorite.
DraftKings has given us a PGA-style main slate which begins Thursday and continues through Sunday with one Bo5 each day. This is excellent news and provides us with a significant increase in roster construction options and edge. Remember, scoring will be different than it was the past two weeks now that we have moved beyond the round robin group stage games and into the knockout round. A player who plays for the winning team of a series will be granted +20 points for each unplayed game, meaning a series sweep of 3-0 would result in 40 bonus points. Similarly, a winning team will be granted +15 points per unplayed game. While the bonus points sound nice in theory, it does limit upside. A player who plays in a full five-game series and wins three games will simply have a much higher ceiling than a player who wins his series 3-0.
Once again, there is no section for Support. Supports have very little individual consideration and should nearly always be rostered alongside teammates. The correlation between a Support’s score and his teammate’s performances is all they have available to them because they are largely incapable of scoring any kind of points on their own. I will make an exception and note that with the possible 40-point bonus coming to him, Wolf may be a solid cash game option, even at $7,100.
Here are the odds for each series as a whole.
Thursday: Origen(-215) vs. Flash Wolves(+181)
Friday: SK Telecom T1(-2446) vs. ahq eSports Club(+1186)
Saturday: Edward Gaming(-155) vs. Fnatic(+132)
Sunday: KT Rolster(-232) vs. KOO Tigers(+194)
Top
Koro1, EDG ($6,500) – It was AmazingJ who was the starter during the group stages for Edward Gaming, but the team announced ahead of this weekend’s series that Koro1 would be returning to the Top lane as the starter. AmazingJ had several underwhelming performances by EDG’s standards during their first six games at the World Championship and although their practice time has been limited with Koro1 due to injury, he is simply the better player. It’s worth noting that there is risk here as teams do have the right to make substitutions in between games in a series and if Koro1’s performance isn’t up to par or he has injury issues he could be replaced by AmazingJ. I’d be surprised to see that however, as it’s unlikely they would make a change at this point in the tournament if they did not intend to ride it for the duration.
Ssumday, KT ($6,800) – Simply one of the most consistent players for fantasy purposes at Worlds thus far. Ssumday scored at least five kills in all but one game and died just seven times in six games. Even in KT’s loss to Origen Ssumday still posted a 5/1/0 and went north of 20 points. $6,800 is entirely fair for a player who has shown us this kind of floor, particularly when he’s also boasted a massive ceiling in multiple games. Expect nothing less against KOO Tigers, who are no slouch and could push this series to five games.
Jungle
Clearlove, EDG ($6,100) – By far the most active Jungler at Worlds with a Kill Participation of 86.1% through six games. No other Jungler had a KP reach 80%. Clearlove is both a tournament and cash option. Fnatic looked as good as they have since the summer split on Sunday, but EDG is a step above the opponents they faced in Group D. I don’t expect Fnatic to get more than a game off of EDG, but even if they do, Clearlove being so heavily involved in EDG’s kills gives him a solid floor even in most losses.
Karsa, FW ($5,100) – Flash Wolves surprised many at this tournament when they upset KOO Tigers and CLG in back to back games to get out of Group A in first place. Karsa was a big part of that as he recorded at least 10 assists in all three of FW’s games last Thursday. Flash Wolves are a favorite to steal at least one game in this series, and if they stay on the roll they started last week, they could take the series outright. This team was underrated from top to bottom coming into the tournament and have proved everyone wrong and they may not be done yet.
Mid
KurO, KOO ($6,300) – KOO Tigers face a significant challenge against KT Rolster, but KurO has been one of the highest upside players in the tournament. He’s on the short list of players who were able to surpass 50 points multiple times during the group stage. Despite KOO losing twice in their six games, KurO still had the highest KDA of all Mid laners at Worlds with an 8.7. If KOO is to find an upset against KT, it will be on KurO’s back.
Maple, FW ($6,300) – xPeke has been picked on throughout the tournament for Origen so far and there is no doubt that Flash Wolves will be looking to win the Mid lane in their attempt upset OG. Maple is simply underpriced given his production and I’m not quite buying OG as this heavy of a favorite over FW. Maple keeping xPeke behind in CS is fully expected and that opens up opportunities to control the lane. Similar to Ssumday, Maple’s floor even in losses appears to be impressively high, making him a possible cash consideration even as an underdog.
ADC
Bang, SKT ($8,700) – The most expensive player on the board, but also arguably the safest. As mentioned above, I think either team from the other three Bo5s could conceivably win which gives all players in those games varying amount of risk. Bang has almost no risk whatsoever as he’s the ADC for a team that will almost certainly win their series 3-0. Bang and Wolf are an expensive pair, but rostering one or both is definitely worth consideration if it can be afforded. You will certainly need to find a cheap play or three to do it, though.
Arrow, KT ($8,000) – With the second most kills and third highest KDA during the group stage, Arrow is a close 2nd best option behind Bang. KT Rolster is SKT’s biggest threat in this tournament and Arrow is a big reason why. The now eliminated LGD Imp was talked up as one of the top ADC’s at the tournament coming in, but it was Arrow who was the top ADC in Group D. KT Rolster as a team leads the tournament with 111 total kills, giving us all the more reason to want their ADC.
TEAM
Lock: SK Telecom T1 ($5,300) – SKT is going to win this series and although they are the most expensive Team, they’re not enough more than other teams to not be a popular choice.
Upset: Flash Wolves ($3,700) – FW is capable of pushing this series of a full five games and if they do, that will be enough to pay this salary. We of course want our Team to win three games, but a cheap Team that finishes a series 2-3 will also do.