Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 10

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-11-11 16:10:21

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

TCU @ Oklahoma State

Quarterbacks: There is a saying I came up with last week: “If you can fit him, get him”, and it holds true for guys like Trevone Boykin (365 YPG, 28 TDs). Week in and week out they are no-brainer, top five options, and if you can fit them on your roster you do it, because they offer an incredible floor to go along with high upside.

Running Backs: Aaron Green (37 rushing YPG over last two) has really struggled lately. I don’t take the matchup too seriously with Oklahoma State, as I think a lot of their numbers are based on playing fluff opponents; they got railroaded by Texas Tech last week. The problem with Green is that he struggling in this offense right now, and I have no idea why. Maybe it’s a push to get Boykin into Heisman consideration, which leaves Green out in the cold, but he’s just not getting the appropriate touches for me to roster right now. However, in a large field tournament, I think he makes for a nice change of pace just in case it’s one of those games he goes off.

Wide Receivers: The same saying that applies to to Boykin also applies to Josh Doctson (8.9 REC/game). He’s the best fantasy wide receiver that is playing in this game set. If you can squeeze him in, in a competitive game like this, you have to do it. A nice alternative to Doctson is Kolby Listenbee (10/187/1 last two games). He came back from injury two games ago and has looked healthy in his return. He had a nice six-catch performance a couple of weeks ago, but never really got into last week against West Virginia. However, in a game that may be very close and high scoring, Listenbee makes for a solid play.

Quarterbacks: Mason Rudolph (310 YPG) is your starter in this offense and looked very much like a competent fantasy quarterback last week against Texas Tech. Well, Texas Tech tends to do that to everybody. Looking at the 37 point team total for Oklahoma State and the poor defensive pass rating for TCU to go along with the high pace played by both these teams, I think Rudolph makes for a solid mid-range quarterback target on Saturday.

Running Backs: Listen, if you can’t get things done against Texas Tech, you’re just never going to get things done. For the most part, these running backs disappointed against Kansas and Texas Tech in back-to-back weeks. That doesn’t bode well for any sort of fantasy relevance. A lot of the running game is created with oddball plays featuring the backup quarterback and wide receiver reverses and so forth. I just can’t stand behind any of these Oklahoma State running backs for fantasy purposes moving forward.

Wide Receivers: Well there was a few people who hit a home run last week with James Washington (3.9 REC/game, 73.5 YPG). I’m sure there are going to be plenty of DFS players out there that are going to look at those numbers and quickly jump on Washington again this week. That could be a mistake. This is a wide receiver by committee offense. It was Washington last week, but it’s just as likely to be David Glidden (4.8 REC/g) or Brandon Shepard (three TDs) this week. I’m sure there’s going to be somebody in this wide receiving corps that makes for a solid fantasy play on Saturday; it’s just difficult to pinpoint which one it might be beforehand.

Cincinnati @ Houston

Quarterbacks: Gunner Kiel (319 YDs/5 TDs last week) is back as the lead quarterback in this offense after missing some time with an injury. Last week he rolled through Central Florida before leaving the game early due to the blowout. This is going to be a very competitive game from beginning to end. I think there are some options in the pass game for Cincinnati that are going to make for solid fantasy plays on Saturday, starting with Kiel.

Running Backs: Outside of the quarterback position, it’s tough to get a solid read on the skill position players for Cincinnati, because they use a committee at each spot. At running back you got several options that are going to get fed, and it makes for a tough fantasy call. Tion Green (5 TDs, 68 YPG) and Hosey Williams (69 YPG, 3 TDs) are technically the two top running backs in the system statistically, but Mike Boone (8 carries/G, 4 TDs) is also in the mix and has vultured these guys all season long.

Wide Receivers: At the WR spot, it’s a little bit more distinguished. Shaq Washington (6.9 REC, 80.6 yards per game) would be my main target on Saturday. He just seems to be a step ahead of the next wave of wide receivers on this team. Due to his big play potential, I would mark down Chris Moore (21.62 yards per catch) as a potential dart throw in GPPs also.

Quarterbacks: You have to feel good about a team that has a 40 point team total going against a defense as weak as Cincinnati; this team also has clear-cut options at each position that you can go to. It starts at quarterback with Greg Ward (333 total YPG, 27 TDs). He’s one of the top options on the entire slate at any position. In a game in which I think Cincinnati pushes the limits on Houston, I believe Ward will end up running quite a bit in this game, something he’s tried to avoid the past couple of weeks in blowouts.

Running Backs: There’s no doubt that Kenneth Farrow (94 YPG, 9 TDs) is the running back you want in this offense. He’s been a touchdown machine this year and is a guy they could lean on in a game like this.

Wide Receivers: I believe Demarcus Ayers (7 REC/89.1 receiving yards per game) may be one of the most underappreciated fantasy wide receivers in the country. He catches a high volume of passes, is included in the running game almost every outing (14/120/1 rushing this year) and could also give you cheap points from the kicking game since he is a return man. Cincinnati is not a tough defense either.

Arizona State @ Washington State

Quarterbacks: Fresh off a monster game in triple overtime last week, Mike Bercovici (398 YDs/5 TDs last week) gets the pleasure this week of taking on the Washington State Cougars in a sweet Pac 12 shootout. He plays a soft defense in a high paced game that projects for plenty of points, so I think he makes for a very solid fantasy play Saturday.

Running Backs: Demario Richard (130 total YPG) has been a solid fantasy asset this year. I don’t mind playing him in this game. He has, however, been losing carries recently to Kalen Ballage (14 carries per game last four weeks), but it’s not enough for me to stray away from Richard in this game.

Wide Receivers: Although this offense likes to spread the wealth around, the recent trend of getting Devin Lucien (51.9 YPG, which leads WRs) more involved is what pushes him as the number one option in this offense for me this week. He’s followed closely by Tim White (3.9 REC/ 50 YDs per game), who has big game potential but also the ability to completely sink your team with a terrible fantasy effort. Third on the list is DJ Foster (4.8 REC per game, 45.6 YPG), who just cannot seem to get it going at wide receiver. The numbers are very mediocre, which is incredibly disappointing for a player who has his type of skill level with the ball in his hands.

Quarterbacks: Another week, and it’s going to sound like a broken record, but Luke Falk (405 YPG, 28:6 TD:INT ratio) makes for an exceptional play once again. The guy is just constantly underappreciated in the fantasy world considering how high his floor is with that hint of massive upside also. Arizona State has struggled against a pass this year and Washington State should be able to take advantage.

Running Backs: Once again here comes the broken record: don’t play Washington State running backs. For every one game of fantasy goodness, you’re going to get about seven games of lineup sinkers.

Wide Receivers: The one thing I know about this wide receiving corps is that Gabe Marks (7.9 REC/100 YPG) is the steadiest man in there. He’s the guy I look to see if I can fit in my roster every week he plays. After that we’re looking at River Cracraft (5.6/66.5 per game) and Dom Williams (6 TDs). There’s typically not enough to go around for all three wide receivers, so these two guys usually rotate good games. Cracraft is more suited for DraftKings and Williams has a better skill set for FanDuel.

Texas Tech @ West Virginia

Quarterbacks: You’ve got to love it when you see Texas Tech on the slate. You know there’s going to be plenty of fantasy options from both teams to choose from. Patrick Mahomes (33 total TDs) seems a bit underpriced on DraftKings this week. Although West Virginia probably has a better defense than they’re given credit for, there’s just not much they can do against a Texas Tech offense that is constantly going to be playing at a high tempo. A

Running Backs: I have been hard on DeAndre Washington (103.6 YPG/9 TDs) in the past, but he’s not a bad running back at all for fantasy purposes. It’s just that there tends to be games where he’s not going to live up to his price tag since this is a pass-first offense. However, this year he has been a lot more consistent, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Wide Receivers: We have always known that Jakeem Grant (7.7 REC/105.8 YPG) is the number one wide receiver in this offense, but with all the injuries that took place midseason, he’s really stepped up to be a clear-cut, no-brainer pick every week. I have zero hesitations about rostering Grant every single game going forward. After that, this offense is a bit tougher to figure out. Devin Lauderdale (hasn’t exceeded 50 yards and has zero TDs last three games) was a nice play early in the season but he hasn’t recovered from injuries and hasn’t been a big part of the passing game recently. The number two spot has gone to Reginald Davis (TDs in three of last 4four games), who has stepped up and become fantasy relevant. However, I’m just not in the market to take chances in cash games on any of these guys, besides Jakeem Grant.

Quarterbacks: One of the first things you do every week when you see that Texas Tech is playing? You look up the numbers for the opposing team to see who you are going to be starting. This week the quarterback that’s going to have a field day is Skyler Howard (246.6 YPG). He’s not a bad option regardless, but when your team has a Vegas total of nearly 44 points, you become a high-priority option on the day. He’s going to have success against this defense, and if the game turns into one of those shootouts, he’s going to be extremely valuable.

Running Backs: There are two schools of thought here; first, Wendell Smallwood (113 YPG) makes for a very solid option this week against a terrible defense. Smallwood is a versatile running back with a lot of athletic talent. This defense really struggles against the run, and that’s what leads me to my second option in Rushel Shell (13.6 carries per game). Shell is still getting plenty of work, so I’m not convinced that it’s all Smallwood in this game. I think Shell gets more carries in this game then he typically gets in a normal game, and he is also the goal line back, so who knows if he can somehow vulture multiple touchdowns. I definitely think he’s worth a large field tournament flier.

Wide Receivers: Early in the season we didn’t quite know who was going to be the number one wide receiver in this offense. It’s become apparent now though that Shelton Gibson (82.3 YPG) is that guy. He should have a solid game against this weak defense. Outside of that, you could take a chance on Jovon Durante (3 TDs) or Daikiel Shorts (21/247/2 TD) in tournaments. There should be plenty of points scored in this game for West Virginia.

UCLA @ Oregon State

Quarterbacks: Josh Rosen (279 YPG, 16 TDs) is a talented quarterback and gets a solid matchup this week with a bad Oregon State defense. This game being on the road for UCLA actually bodes well for Rosen, as opposed to if it were at home and would likely lead to a blowout. I think with all the weapons he has, he makes for a solid play Saturday.

Running Backs: Well, the injury to Paul Perkins (159 total yards/ 2 TDs last week) sure didn’t last long. What we thought might be a season-ending knee injury turns out to be just Perkins missing one half of football before returning the next game to go ham on his opponent. Considering how bad Oregon State is at this point in time, I don’t see any reason for Perkins not to be on rosters for fantasy owners. I think 100 yards and at least one touchdown is the floor, with a typical big upside outing also possible.

Wide Receivers: I don’t think there is an established number one wide receiver in this offense yet. I think Rosen likes to spread it around and that everybody’s going to get a piece on different weeks. Thomas Duarte (6 TDs) is probably the first guy to turn to, but that’s not saying much. Jordan Payton (5.6r REC/85.1 YPG) is also in the mix. On any given week, either one of these guys can be targeted for a big performance.

Quarterbacks: Seth Collins is injured, and I’m not even he gets his job back if he’s healthy. Nick Mitchell (204 yards/1 TD last week) started last week and looked pretty decent against a very difficult defense in Utah. I don’t think he’s a terrible play at home against a defense that is susceptible to giving up points.

Running Backs: This is an absolutely dead spot on this team. Coming into the year I would have thought Storm Woods was going to be a decent fantasy play, but he’s been terrible this year and nobody has stepped up. It’s just a complete wasteland of a backfield at this point.

Wide Receivers: Yikes, this is also a very difficult spot to invest in. Victor Bolden (4.1 REC per game) seems to be catching a few more passes recently, but he’s just not getting many yards or touchdowns. Jordan Villamin (59.3 YPG, 16.3 yards per catch) has the ability to break big plays, but he just doesn’t see the targets/receptions that you want when rostering a wide receiver. More than likely I will probably be avoiding this spot also.