Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 11

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-11-15 21:11:21

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

Washington @ Arizona State

Quarterbacks: Washington has started to produce some nice offense recently. They’re led at quarterback by Jake Browning (231 YPG, 11 TDs). If Arizona State has a weakness on defense, and they do, it is mostly via the pass defense, so I think Browning makes for a decent play in this game. The Sun Devils gave up nearly 500 yards passing last week to Washington State and are ranked in the bottom 10 in the nation by most metrics against the pass.

Running Backs: Myles Gaskin (83 YPG, 7 TDs) has seemed to seize control of this rushing back field. Last week against Utah he got 20 carries, which he converted to 93 yards and a touchdown. He has become a viable fantasy option.

Wide Receivers: Although I don’t mind the Jake Browning play, the only option in this receiving corps that I would even vaguely take a chance on is Joshua Perkins (41.7 YPG), and that’s only at tight end on FanDuel. Otherwise there is no option on this team that averages more than 40 yards a game receiving or gets more than 3.7 receptions per game. It’s a wasteland.

Quarterbacks: Mike Bercovici (275 YPG, 19 TDs) has strung together some very impressive games lately. This Washington defense is not too shabby on paper and I don’t necessarily think it’s a good idea to go all in and attack them. However, the Arizona State quarterback makes for a solid tournament option, having accounted for five passing touchdowns against Colorado and then again versus Oregon. So, he is extremely hit or miss and that bodes well for winning tournaments when you’re on the right side of that variance.

Running Backs: I think the Arizona State rushing game is where you can attack for this offense. Demario Richard (17 carries per game, 97 YPG) is the lead running back and he is an explosive option. I also don’t mind using Kalen Ballage (13 carries per game, 2 TDs) in tournaments, as he’s proven to be a solid number two option who gets plenty of work in recent weeks. On paper the Washington run defense looks solid, but they did surrender nearly 200 yards last week to Utah on the ground, and some of their shutdown statistics have come against teams like Sacramento State and Utah State.

Wide Receivers: This has definitely become a receiver by committee for Arizona State. You have three viable options but all are hit or miss on any given week. DJ Foster (5 REC/game), Tim White (6 TDs) and Devin Lucien (53 YPG) are all options in this attack, but I think you’re throwing darts to see if you can nail the right option each week. For that reason I am avoiding them in cash games and using them very rarely in tournaments this week.

Oklahoma State @ Iowa State

Quarterbacks: It appears that Mason Rudolph is hitting his stride right now. He has eight passing TDs the last three games and has gone over the 300-yard bonus twice in that span. He’s a solid play in this matchup.

Running Backs: This is not only a backfield by committee, but they don’t even want to run it that much regardless. I would avoid this spot based on the workload and mouths to feed.

Wide Receivers: OK James Washington. You got me. I gave up on this WR corps weeks ago because it was just too hard to predict, and then I missed out on the Washington explosion because of my early season bias. He has 487 yards the last three weeks with six TDs. He also has 100+ yards in three out of four games and should be treated as a stud, as the others are taking a backseat to him at this point.

Quarterbacks: Joel Lanning has looked serviceable as a starting QB with 17+ DraftKings points the last three games, but this is a tough defense. I would be wary of playing any of these Cyclones here.

Running Backs: After that powerful start for Mike Warren beginning in the third week of the season, he finally came back down to earth last week with only 43 yards rushing against a tough defense. This Cowboys defense is also tough, so I am probably avoiding Warren myself.

Wide Receivers: Allen Lazard would be the only guy I would point out in this WR corps, and he is banged up and going against a tough set of defensive backs, so this is a clean fade for me.

Kansas State @ Texas Tech

Quarterbacks: Joe Hubener (51 rushing yards per game, 8 TDs) is the quarterback of focus for Kansas State. However, I’m not going to dip too far into his passing numbers or Texas Tech’s pass defense, because they’re pretty much irrelevant. This guy runs the ball and Texas Tech has trouble defending the run. I have no problems firing up Hubener as a solid option this weekend against a Texas Tech team that ranks in the bottom five of the nation versus the run.

Running Backs: After the quarterback, your next best option in this rushing attack is probably going to be Charles Jones (10 carries a game, 47 YPG). He’s carried the ball 34 times the last two weeks combined and seems to be establishing himself as the better running back of the pair in the backfield. Clearly the problem with Jones is that he is going to get a lack of touchdowns. He only has three touchdowns on the year through eight games and it’s because his quarterback vultures him virtually every time they get inside the five-yard line. That means the upside on Jones is capped for most weeks. But, I still don’t have a problem playing him this week.

Wide Receivers: Although Texas Tech is a bad defense in all aspects, there are no Kansas state wide receivers I would recommend. I just don’t think they are capable of filling out a promising stat-line in the passing game. There’s not one Kansas State wide receiver that averages more than 35 yards or three receptions per game.

Quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes (353 YPG, 28 TDs) checks in again this week as a top five option in fantasy. The Kansas State pass defense has given up 300 or more passing yards to every significant opponent this year.

Running Backs: DeAndre Washington (103 YPG, 6.15 YPC) is typically a solid fantasy running back and I don’t think that changes this week despite the matchup. Kansas State is a defense that I would prefer attacking through the year rather than on the ground. The Kansas State rush defense is only giving up 3.94 yards per carry this year and I think Texas Tech will look to exploit them through the air. However, Washington is always a solid weekly bet for a touchdown, having scored nine of them in 10 games this year.

Wide Receivers: Again, the number one wide receiver for Texas Tech this week is going to be Jakeem Grant (7.4 REC per game), and the margin between him and the number two guy grows every week. At this point in time I believe the number two role belongs to Reginald Davis (7 TDs) based on his touchdown-making ability. But even with that, he only has two catches the last two weeks, so basically it is Grant or bust. If you want to take a flyer on one of the other guys, it’d be wise to only do so in strictly a large field tournament.

Maryland @ Michigan State

Quarterbacks: Maryland is in an interesting spot in this game. This is not the Spartans defense we have grown accustomed to seeing in recent years. These guys surrender yards via the air at a high clip. After last week’s game, they have now surrendered 328+ yards passing in four straight games, and have also allowed 11 touchdowns over that stretch. Perry Hillis (140 YPG, 8 TDs) is the Maryland QB and he makes for a sneaky play this week. He may net some yards in the air but he is more than a capable runner also. Before last week’s game against Wisconsin, he had three straight 100 yard rushing games.

Running Backs: On the ground, Hillis is a big weapon, but outside of that, Brandon Ross is the lead RB. However, he is not a guy I want to risk rostering, as he faces a defense that ranks 25th in the nation, allowing only 123 rushing yards per game.

Wide Receivers: We hit on the passing game and how it could find some success against this defense, and the man I am looking at in this lineup is Levern Jacobs (28/320/3). He has some miniscule numbers in the grand scheme of things, but I know he has talent. It’s just a matter of Hillis getting him the ball, and you are banking on the solid matchup being the catalyst that gets him there.

Quarterbacks: I have to think that Michigan State is shell shocked after that defeat last weekend. It might be hard not to come into this game with a nasty hangover. That said, they are led by one of the better QBs in the nation, Connor Cook (267 YPG, 21 TDs). Maryland features a tougher than average defense all around, but their weak spot is through the air. They are middle of the pack in pass defense, sitting at 60th in pass defense rating.

Running Backs: On the ground the Terrapins are an interesting defense. They rank 19th in the nation, giving up only 3.63 yards per carry against FBS schools with winning record (seven games). The Spartans this year have been a revolving door at running back. The year started off with Madre London (67 YPG, 3 TDs) as the starter. Seemingly, for no reason, he gave way for a few games to LJ Scott (9 TDs) and now there is Gerald Holmes (39 YPG, 5 TDs) to contend with too. All three guys are freshmen and sophomores, so I don’t know what to make of this rotation.

Wide Receivers: Now we get to an easy spot to figure out – wide Receiver for Michigan State. Aaron Burbridge (6.9 REC, 110 YPG, 6 TDs) is the leading WR for the Spartans and it’s not even close, with his numbers more than doubling the next closest guy in most categories. He’s a week in and week out stud. MacGarrett Kings (50 YPG, 4 TDs) caught two TDs last week, but I am not willing to crown him the next coming just yet.

Ohio State @ Illinois

Quarterbacks: Ohio State travels to Illinois in what could be a sneaky offensive uprising for the Buckeyes. Back at QB after the one-game suspension is JT Barrett. The overall numbers don’t do him justice as he was backup for much of the season, but in his only start he was good for 40+ DraftKings points. He’s a solid pick here.

Running Backs: Well, we don’t have to worry about workloads and split carries or goal line vultures with Ohio State. When they run they give the ball to Ezekiel Elliott (139 YPG, 14 TDs). Cash game safe? Well, he has 100+ yards in every game this year and has scored a TD in every game this year, except for one against Northern Illinois in Week 3. So, his floor is as high as any RB in college football.

Wide Receivers: Michael Thomas (64 YPG, 7 TDs) is the guy from this WR corps that I would most likely play on Saturday. He leads the team in all receiving categories and is one of the better athletes in college football. Jalin Marshall (2.9 RECper game, 3 TDs) is interesting in terms of his potential to score a TD as a cheap option, but is nothing more than a tournament play in my opinion.

Quarterbacks: It’s going to be tough to get behind any Illinois players here, but I think they are going to treat this game as if it is their national title game. Ohio State gives up only 190 yards and one TD per game in conference play, so taking Wes Lunt (222 YPG, 12:4 TD:INT) is a GPP flyer.

Running Backs: If Ohio State can be vulnerable, I think it is on the ground. In Big 10 games they give up 152 yards per game rushing and have surrendered six TDs. Josh Ferguson made his return from injury last week and I don’t think he makes for a bad GPP play given his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield (six receptions last week vs Purdue). Just in terms of straight running the ball, Ke’Shawn Vaughn (4.78 YPG, 6 TDs) has been solid since Ferguson went out and even maintained his carries last week in Ferguson’s return (16 touches).

Wide Receivers: It’s tough to roster a WR against Ohio State, but Illinois has a good one, and his name is Geronimo Allison (6.2 REC/84 YPG per game). He averages 13 targets per game. Ohio State hasn’t faced many healthy, legit #1 WRs this year, but when they have they have been beaten. Daniel Braverman (10/123/1) lit them up, and Chris Godwin (3/103) and KJ Maye last week (10/116/1) also found success. Allison deserves some tournament interest.