Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 12

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-11-23 12:57:21

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

Arizona @ Arizona State

Quarterbacks: Anu Solomon was certainly on a roll for Arizona. It looked like he was reestablishing himself as the best quarterback on this team having thrown for 352 yards against Southern California, and then on his way to another big game against Utah before he got hit in his head and it hit the turf. His status is up in the air for Saturday, so keep your eyes on the news. Whichever quarterback lines up under center would be a solid option against an Arizona State team that struggles to stop the pass.

Running Backs: Nick Wilson came back from injury and played against Utah this week. He only received six carries after having missed the prior two games. He’s not an option in this game, but what he does is create more of a committee and take away from Jared Baker. Baker only received 13 carries in the game against Utah. I think it’s a tough matchup for the Arizona run game anyhow, so I’ll be avoiding these guys

Wide Receivers: Arizona deploys a wide receiver by committee approach. You have four different wide receivers that range from 3.5 to 4.2 receptions per game. Of those four guys, their yardage per game ranges from 45.8 to 60.5. Each one of those four guys has at least four touchdowns, but no more than five touchdowns. It is literally a tossup as to which one you should roster on that given week. Cayleb Jones, Johnny Jackson, Nate Phillips, and David Richards are all guys who could put up a dud or a great performance on any given week. For those reasons I would leave these guys strictly to tournament play.

Quarterbacks: Unlike Arizona, Arizona State is a bit easier to dissect. The quarterback is Mike Bercovici and he is typically a solid option in fantasy. He averages 273 passing yards per game and has 20 passing touchdowns in 10 games. Throw in a handful of rushing yards and touchdowns and he’s a good option most weeks.

Running Backs: The backfield has gotten a little bit more crowded the last few weeks. Demario Richard is the lead running back grabbing around 17 carries a game and turning it into 91 YPG, to go along with six rushing touchdowns. However, over the last couple weeks he’s given away several carries to Kalen Ballage. Ballage racked up 92 yards and two touchdowns last week. This comes off of an 84-yard, one-touchdown performance against Washington State the prior week. He’s becoming a menace to do Demario’s workload. In this particular game, though, I think they are both in play. Richards more of a cash game play and Ballage more of a tournament play.

Wide Receivers: Arizona State, similar to Arizona, has a wide receiver by committee approach also. However in this case it’s only three guys and I think there’s one guy who stands out more than anybody else for me personally. Devin Lucien averages 54 yards receiving per game and has totaled at least four receptions in five straight games. He’s the guy I would target as the number one. For pure receptions, it would be DJ Foster. He averages five catches per game and grabs around 50 receiving yards per game, he’ll also get you a handful at carries. But for some reason they just don’t put him in a position to score touchdowns anymore. Tim White is capable of having big games with multiple touchdowns. But I think he’s more hit or miss then either of the other two guys.

Georgia Tech @ Miami (Florida)

Quarterbacks: Justin Thomas is the quarterback for Georgia Tech. But make no mistake about it, you don’t want to roster this guy for his passing ability. You want to roster him if you think he’s going to make big plays in the running game. He has six rushing touchdowns this year and averages 47 yards rushing per game. He actually leads the team with 13 carries per game. I’ve said this before and it stands true this weekend, Justin Thomas is strictly a large-field tournament play based on his inconsistencies.

Running Backs: In the running game, Justin Thomas is a fine option for a quarterback, but you will also need to glance at the running backs for GPP potential. This Miami defense has shown gaping deficiencies against the run. Against FBS schools they are averaging giving up 5.64 yards per carry. That is 122 out of 128 in the nation. Georgia Tech will find running holes this weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it is going to be extremely difficult finding a guy to play in his offense outside of Thomas. Nobody is getting significant carries. Early in the year was Patrick Skov, however, he has drifted down to virtually nothing these days. Marcus Marshall received 16 carries in the last game. He may be a guy I play in large field tournaments, but before that game he hadn’t received more than four carries in any game this year. It is beyond a crapshoot.

Wide Receivers: Georgia Tech throws the ball roughly 28% of the time. That is 124th in the nation. Avoid this passing game.

Quarterbacks: The Yellow Jackets rank middle of the pack versus the pass against Power Five schools. I think Brad Kaaya is cheap enough that he’s playable on DraftKings. However, the upside isn’t there for a huge game. The Miami quarterback has some decent numbers throwing for 273 yards per game this year, but Georgia Tech will shorten every game and limit possessions because of their ball control.

Running Backs: The guy I am most interested in from the Miami offense is Joseph Yearby. He averages around 16 carries per game and 79 yards per game. I don’t feel like Georgia Tech is an outstanding defense in any regard, but of the two facets of the game, rushing defense is the one they struggle in the most. They give up 172 rushing yards per game to Division I schools and Yearby is explosive.

Wide Receivers: We’re going to have to keep an eye on the injury report this weekend for Miami. Stacy Coley would be the number one wide receiver averaging 60 yards per game and 4.8 receptions per game since his return, but he went down and left last week’s game against North Carolina in the fourth quarter with an injury. If he is out then Rashawn Scott would resume that number one rule. He is averaging four receptions a game to go along with 55 yards receiving per game.

Indiana @ Maryland

Quarterbacks: Maryland’s defense struggles in just about every aspect of the game. Nate Sudfeld has a really good price tag on DraftKings and has shown that he can put up good numbers against just about anybody. There is a slight concern of an overall letdown after that heartbreaking overtime lost to Michigan last week for this Indiana offense. However, I think Nate Sudfeld and his 272 yards per game are solid play this week.

Running Backs: We have been deprived of a full season or Jordan Howard in the Indiana uniform. Last week was kind of a glimpse of what we thought we might see this entire season. He ran over the Michigan defense on his way to a monster game. He averages nearly 150 yards rushing per game to go along with slightly over one touchdown per game on average. I do have some concern about a running back who is less than a week removed from 35 hard rushing attempts. However, his numbers have looked solid when he’s been healthy this year, so it would be tough not to recommend him this weekend.

Wide Receivers: The passing game for Indiana has been quiet for a couple of weeks now. Ricky Jones does the heavy lifting in this offense averaging 4.5 receptions and 75 receiving yards per game. Simmie Cobbs Jr. is second in line averaging nearly 16 yards per reception. Both those guys have home run capability and can put up a big game.

Quarterbacks: Indiana is not a good defense, however, this Maryland offense is pretty terrible in its own right. They’re led at quarterback by Perry Hills, who is a terrible passer averaging only 141 yards per game. However, he’s a decent rusher carrying the ball over 15 times per game. He is a tournament only play, but has some upside this weekend.

Running Backs: Against a bad rush defense like Indiana, you would like to be able to insert some players from this offense. In the running game it’s going to be very difficult to do that. Of these two running back that will get the majority of the carries this weekend, Brandon Ross has the better averages this year but has been out carried the last couple of weeks by Wes Brown. Wes Brown is coming off back to back double digit carries while Brandon Ross hasn’t exceeded six carries in the last three games. It’s tough to trust either of these guys this week even against a soft defense.

Wide Receivers: Another difficult spot to attack for this offense is wide receiver. It basically boils down to the terrible quarterback play of Perry Hills. Levern Jacobs is the only guy I would even consider in this wide receiving corps. And even then he’s only averaging 3.4 receptions and 42 yards per game this year. He has three touchdowns in nine games.

Michigan State @ Ohio State

Quarterbacks: This appears to be the game of the week, at least on the early slate, for college football. I think that’s a big factor because when teams sense that kind of hype around a game we get extra excited. That tends to sometimes lead to more shootouts. Ohio State’s defense, on paper, is spotless. They hold pristine ranks against both the pass and the run. However, I will stand by the fact that I think they can be beat through the air. Connor Cook left last week’s game with an injury, but I think it was just precautionary to get ready for this game. Keep your eye on it though just in case. Cook has a 21-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio this year. He is the kind a guy who can put up 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in this game.

Running Backs: In back to back weeks now it’s been Gerald Holmes who has led Michigan State in rushing. I think he is becoming the best of the trio of options they have. However in a game against Ohio State, whose run defense is a top 10 unit, I would be hard-pressed to play any member of this backfield.

Wide Receivers: The receiving corps for Michigan State is where it gets interesting. They have a bona fide number-one wideout named Aaron Burbridge. He is Averaging 6.5 receptions and 102 yards per game this year and also scored six touchdowns. I think if Ohio State can be beat on defense, it is through the air and through good wide receivers. Also we seen the emergence of MacGarrett Kings in the last three games. Over those three games he has 15 receptions and three touchdowns. It would not be surprising at all to see him break loose for a long touchdown in this game.

Quarterbacks: Offensively, Ohio State is one of the easier teams to break down in the country. Their quarterback is JT Barrett who is a phenomenal fantasy player every week he steps on the field. Throw out all the numbers this year since he’s only started a handful of games. He’s an elite player, though.

Running Backs: The running game is a one man show in Ohio State. We don’t have to worry about split carries or any such thing like that. Ezekiel Elliott leads this team with 22 carries per game. He’s averaged 143 yards per game rushing and has 16 touchdowns already on the ground. Michigan State’s strength on defense is against the run, but Elliot is absolutely matchup proof regardless. Remember he torched Alabama last year for 230 yards and two touchdowns. So just when you think a matchup is too tough is when he gets good.

Wide Receivers: I like Ohio State to be able to pass the ball against Michigan State. When JT Barrett passes the ball his number one target is Michael Thomas. Thomas has a very solid eight touchdowns in 10 games this year. Also, if this game turns into more passing for Ohio State then Jalin Marshall is another name to be aware of. He averages almost 15 yards per reception and has a couple of big games this year.

Western Kentucky @ Florida International

Quarterbacks: It’s been several weeks since Western Kentucky has been on the early slate and been in play. It’s always nice to see that name pop up when you’re looking at the game sets in fantasy. They’re such a solid, reliable fantasy team led by quarterback Brandon Doughty. Doughty has thrown for 359 yards per game this year to go along with a sick 34 touchdowns. Every once in a while he will sneak one across on the ground also. Clearly he makes for an elite play this weekend.

Running Backs: Florida international ranks below average on defense in most aspects. That doesn’t bode well against an offense that is good. Anthony Wales has been very solid since his return from injury. He average is 99 yard rushing per game and has six touchdowns in seven games. He’s clearly assumed the number one running back role in the offense, and against a team that is below average as Florida international, I would expect him to have a very solid game this week.

Wide Receivers: The wide receiving corps can get a bit tricky in this offense. It’s because they have so many weapons. There led by Taiwan Taylor who averages 6.5 receptions per game. That’s followed by Jared Dangerfield and his 6.0 receptions per game to go along with seven touchdowns. However it’s Nicholas Norris who has assumed the number two spot in yards per game on the team with 68 ypg. Also throw in Tyler Higbee who is the best tight end in the nation for fantasy purposes and you have a very deep receiving corps. Higbee is questionable with that knee injury but there’s a chance he plays this week. For my liking I rank them Taylor, Dangerfield, Higbee and then Norris but all have solid potential.

Quarterbacks: So Florida international very rarely comes across our screen as being a team that we can use for fantasy purposes. So for those unfamiliar with this team here’s a brief rundown. Their led at quarterback by Alex McGough, he averages 239 yards passing per game and has 21 touchdowns and 11 games. He is not a threat to run, although he does have three rushing touchdowns this year. Those were mainly by accident though.

Running Backs: This Florida international team who runs the ball very little. They rank 116th in the nation in rushing offense. However if you want to play a guy in this offense at running back, it would be Alex Gardner and his 65 rushing yards per game. I just think there is a serious danger of game flow problems for the running attack of Florida international. Western Kentucky is so high powered or libel to jump off to a big lead very quickly.

Wide Receivers: Florida international typically passes the ball around 56% of the time anyhow but when you factor in being down in this game by multiple touchdowns early then it could jump up for higher than that. The number one right why receiver in the offense is Thomas Owens averaging 4.5 receptions and 56 yards per game. He has eight touchdowns thus far through the year. The guy I most likely would have roster is Jonnu Smith averaging 4.5 reception per game and nearly 50 yards at tight end, but he is questionable coming to this game with an injury, so keep your eyes on his status.