Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 3

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-09-19 23:09:40

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

Georgia State @ Oregon

This game has a massive total of over 71 points this weekend, so it makes the cut-off, but Georgia State with a team total of 13 is not something you want to pursue. This game is strictly all about Oregon’s offense and how they’re going to get their 7-to-10 touchdowns.

This is a tough spot to try to maneuver Oregon offensive players in your lineup. They’re coming off a tough Week 2 game on the road in which they lost to Michigan State. Physically, it was a very demanding game, and mentally they could be worn out as they know their hopes of making the college football playoffs took a major hit this early in the season. Vernon Adams is the quarterback for the Ducks, but he has an injured finger and with the projected blowout I will probably avoid him. His receivers are once again deep and very difficult to project for fantasy. If Oregon has anything in this game that you can bank on, it’s the running attack. Royce Freeman has clearly been their best player this year, averaging 6.0 yards per carry and leading the way with 45 carries. However I think he probably is in for a light workload this week and so it may be worth the chance to throw a backup in the mix. I think this may be a better game for Kani Benoit rather than Tony Brooks-James. In game one of the season, a blowout win, it was Benoit that got 11 carries, while Brooks only got six. Brooks got more carries vs Michigan State, so my guess is that Benoit is the guy they want to run out time in these blowouts.

Western Kentucky @ Indiana

Western Kentucky travels to Indiana in what is, by far, the best fantasy game of the day. Western Kentucky has a team total of 34 and always seems to be involved in shootouts. Due to injuries, their once balanced offense may lean much more heavily now on the arm of Brandon Doughty. He’s an explosive fantasy quarterback that should be able to pick apart the Indiana Hoosiers and their terrible secondary, which has a pass rating allowed of 161. When Doughty throws the ball, his number one receiving threat this year has been tight end Tyler Higbee. With a shortage of stud tight ends in college football, Higbee is the best option on the board, bar none. He averages 17.3 yards per reception, which is astounding for a tight end. Outside of Higbee it’s kind of a tossup with Taiwan Taylor, Jared Dangerfield and Antoine Grant. The injury I spoke of earlier was to starting running back Leon Allen, who is going to be lost for an extended period of time with a leg injury. When Allen left the game last week, it was D’Andre Ferby who appeared to be the main replacement for him, as he racked up 14 carries throughout the rest of the game for an unimpressive 2.8 yards per rush . He is clearly in play in this type of shoot out, but don’t expect Leon Allen type talent out of him.

Indiana is at home and the favorite in this projected shootout on Saturday. They come into the game with a top 15 pace to go along with a terrible secondary. These type of stats constantly lead to shootouts with this team, and Saturday should be no different. I have to believe the number one option in this offense is going to be Jordan Howard. There’s always a chance they go more to the passing game, but thus far this season Howard has been the man. He averages 6.5 yards per carry and Western Kentucky ranks 113th in the nation, giving up 5.36 yards per carry themselves. Howard is one of the premier fantasy running backs this weekend. Nate Sudfeld has returned for Indiana this season and is off to a very slow start. He is only completing 58.5% of his throws and has reached the end zone through the air only two times this year. As unimpressive as that is, this is the type of game I can envision him breaking out. Especially if Western Kentucky pushes the issue and starts piling on points are early. When he drops back to pass, the two main wide receivers for him have been Ricky Jones and Simmie Cobbs. Jones had the huge first game with 186 yards and a touchdown but was very quiet in game two. Cobbs has put together two similar games in his two starts, neither of which jump off the charts. If I’m a betting man, I would say that one of these guys has a monster game here.

Illinois @ North Carolina

Illinois travels to North Carolina on Saturday in what is projected to be high scoring game between two teams with good offenses and not a ton of defense. Illinois is led by Wes Lunt at quarterback. Lunt is a solid but unspectacular quarterback who could give you both ends of the spectrum in a game like this. He could be fantastic and light it up or he could be terrible and Illinois gets blown out. He’s thrown for 478 yards and five touchdowns through two matchups so far. Through two games you would have to say Lunt’s favorite target has been Geronimo Allison. Allison average is 18.1 yards per reception. Also someone to consider is Marty Murdock, who has eight receptions and two touchdowns this season. If Wes Lunt gets rolling in this game, one of those two guys should be the beneficiary. The third leading receiver on this team is running back Josh Ferguson. I think Ferguson makes for a fantastic play in games like this. He’s never going to be off the field regardless of score. If they are in catchup mode, he’s going to get a ton of passes out of the backfield. He leads the team with 115 yards rushing and two touchdowns to go along with 63 yards receiving and another touchdown through the air.

North Carolina’s projected team total according to Vegas is creeping up around the 37 point mark. Needless to say this is a team you should look to target. First and foremost is going to be all everything quarterback Marquise Williams. He became an adequate passer and still has the ability to break off 100 yards rushing game if he needs to. He’s the guy I would look to in this offense the most on Saturday. The reason why some of the other spots may be more difficult is because there’s a lot of depth on this team. North Carolina has four wide receivers all vying for targets. Bug Howard, Ryan Switzer and Quinshad Davis all have eight or more receptions this year and none of them has exceeded one total touchdown. Throw in Mack Hollins, the deep threat, and it makes for a tricky spot to try and pick Williams’ favorite target on Saturday. As for the running attack, if Marquis Williams isn’t running then it then it looks like the lead running back will be Elijah Hood. He’s got 29 carries through two games, which is 18 more than the next leading running back TJ Logan. Hood has turned those 29 carries into 194 yards and two touchdowns.

Nebraska @ Miami (Florida)

Nebraska is on the road to face Miami this weekend in what looks to be a solid fantasy matchup. Tommy Armstrong Jr has completed 63.4% of his passes this year with a five-to-one touchdown to interception ratio. Seeing as how he is a dual threat, I think he makes for a solid play in this game. Miami is known for their athleticism, so it’s hard to envision Nebraska going too far over that projected 27 point team total. Jordan Westerkamp has 10 receptions on 16 targets this year. He’s clearly the number one option in this offense. I mentioned Miami’s athleticism earlier and that’s what makes it hard for me to go all in on Westerkamp in this game. They have the guys that will match up well with Westerkamp. Brandon Reilly also has 10 receptions on just 13 targets. He may be better suited to take on this Miami defense, if they decide to send extra coverage at Westerkamp. The backfield for Nebraska looks to have taken shape. Terrell Newby had a phenomenal week last week and now has 29 more carries than any other running back on this team. It’s tough for me to get too excited at the prospect of taking on a Miami defense, but there are points to be had in this game and Newby would seem like a solid target.

This game should, at the very least, be competitive and keep the starters on the field for all four quarters. That’s good for Brad Kaaya, who has been in a couple of blowouts thus far. Considering what we’ve seen from the Nebraska secondary this year, I think he could have a solid game. In my opinion I believe his leading receiver would be Stacy Coley, but he missed the last game with an injury so he has to be considered a major question mark for this game. If he is out again, I think we see Herb Waters step up to be the go-to guy for Kaaya. Statistically, the leading receiver on this team is Rashawn Scott, but I can’t put a ton of stock into two early season games against such inferior competition. I think we’re still kind of waiting to see how the Miami backfield plays out after the early summer injury to their number one guy, but it looks like Joseph Yearby might be the guy. He’s averaged 7.8 yards per carry on 24 carries this year. Mark Walton also has 24 carries and has four touchdowns to show for it. After this game we will know a lot more about this situation, but headed into this game it’s still a toss-up as to who’s going to be the lead dog.

Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame

Vegas has a very weird line on this game in my opinion. You’ve got Georgia Tech going on the road as a two-point favorite against Notre Dame. With the injuries to Notre Dame that is understandable. But, if the injuries keep the spread in Georgia Tech’s favor, they certainly aren’t holding down the total in this game, which is up near 55. For Georgia Tech it’s pretty simple. They’re going to run the ball into the ground. They’ve got a ton of different options to choose from and Justin Thomas is a nice large field tournament play in this game. He’s clearly never a guy you should trust in your cash games, but in a competitive game like this they may turn to his athletic running ability to move the ball against a tough defense. He’s going to hand the ball off on the dive and he’s going to pitch the ball in addition to running it himself. Usually the other guys involved are Marcus Marshall, who averages an astonishing 15.8 yards per carry this year, and Patrick Skov, who leads the team with 23 carries and four touchdowns. The leading receiver for this team has four catches through two games. This is not a position I want to target for Georgia Tech.

Notre Dame is not a school anyone should ever feel sympathy for. However, as a college football fan, losing Tarean Folston and Malik Zaire after only two games of this season is terrible. Now at quarterback they’re going to turn to DeShone Kizer. This Georgia Tech defense has been sneaky good dating back to the midway point of last year. I’m not sure I could trust this quarterback in this game. Another unknown because of the quarterback injury is going to be William Fuller. Fuller has emerged as one of the best wide receivers in the country. I still think he is a guy you can roster and hope that the changing of the guard at quarterback doesn’t kill his big play potential. He’s got four touchdowns and averages 22.2 yards per reception this season, so he is a home run hitter against a secondary that I think he can exploit. CJ Prosise has stepped up to be the leading running back since the injury to Folston in game one. There’s a good chance that Notre Dame turns to the running game in this contest because of the new quarterback.

Memphis @ Bowling Green

Talk about a fantasy relevant game; you have one here with Memphis at Bowling Green. A mere three-point Vegas spread separates these two teams with a massive total of 78. Last season Paxton Lynch made a jump to be a fantasy friendly quarterback. This year it looks like he’s picked up and going even further. He’s completing over 81% of his passes this year and hasn’t thrown an interception. He’s a tall lanky guy who also has an ability to run the ball when necessary. At this point it looks like Mose Frazier is the guy you want to pair as his receiver. Frazier has 10 receptions for 166 yards and two touchdowns this year. He leads the team with 12 targets. Also worthy of consideration is Phil Mayhue. Here’s where things get a little bit tricky for Memphis. They want to run the ball, and when they do they’ve got three solid options. Jarvis Cooper leads the team with 27 carries and three touchdowns. Right on his heels is Jamarius Henderson with 26 carries and two touchdowns. But thinking back to last year it was Sam Craft, who has 19 carries and one touchdown, who was the best running back on this team before he was injured. So, I think it’s a real crapshoot as to who’s going to emerge as the leading rusher on Saturday.

Bowling Green is simpler to figure out. They’re led by Matt Johnson at quarterback, and through two games he’s been exceptional. He has eight touchdowns in those two games and has exceeded 400 yards passing in each one. With this kind of total I think he’s a must play on Saturday. He’s got weapons to throw to and sometimes they can be a little bit difficult to figure out. However coming off a game where he received 15 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns, I think Roger Lewis is the clear cut number one option in the passing game. After that you could also turn to Ronnie Moore, who has 13 catches on the year for 174 yards or even Gehrig Dieter with 147 yards and two touchdowns , and it wouldn’t be the worst thing in fantasy to stack Johnson with a couple of these guys. So far this year Fred Coppet and Travis Greene have split carries with each receiving 27 totes of the rock. Coppet has outperformed Greene averaging 6.4 yards per carry while Greene is stuck at 3.7. However Travis Greene was also banged up in the first game of the year so who knows how much that played into what happened thereafter. I definitely see the merit in choosing one of these running backs and hoping you get lucky, but I’m probably just sticking to the passing game myself.

Texas Tech @ Arkansas

Finally Texas Tech gets to pick on someone their own size. They’ve been putting up monster offensive performances thus far in 2015, but it’s been against weak competition. Now they travel to Arkansas in a game that sees the Razorbacks favored by double digits with a total of 69 points. There’s no doubt what Texas Tech wants to do: air raid. They want to pass the ball and that’s usually what they do a large percentage of the time. Patrick Mahomes has put up solid numbers thus far. Clearly though you have to take it with a grain of salt, as the competition has been Sam Houston State and Texas El Paso. Arkansas is a different breed on defense. Although I still think Mahomes has success, I’m not sure he can duplicate his average of nearly 425 yards and five touchdown per game average. When he passes his top two receiving threats are Jakeem Grant and Devin Lauderdale. Two games into the season though, throw in Ian Sadler and Reginald Davis and you have four wide receivers who have each received 10 or more targets and scored at least one touchdown. Ultimately Texas Tech doesn’t want to run the ball and I question if they’ll ever have the lead to protect which would have forced them to. DeAndre Washington is still a solid play but I would think Texas Tech leans more on the passing game here.

Arkansas has been a major disappointment this year both in real life and in fantasy and just lost their best wide receiver, Keon Hatcher, for the year. However you cannot ignore a team that is projected to score nearly 40 points. Brandon Allen has actually been pretty serviceable as the Razorbacks’ QB so far. And in this game, if things go haywire and Arkansas gets behind, you can see Allen put up solid numbers if they force him to throw 30+ times . The leading receiver for Arkansas that I would be looking to target with Hatcher out, is Hunter Henry, the tight end. He has 10 receptions this year for 159 yards. After Hatcher and Henry, Jared Cornelius is the most targeted receiver in this corps. I think he’s worth a flier just based on potential game flow. We all came into the year and expected Alex Collins to be a fantasy God with Jonathan Williams out. Then after a decent first game, he went out against Toledo and was terrible. Now we find out that he’s been dealing with knick-knack injuries. I think this is a solid game for him to get on track, but if the injuries are significant then matchups won’t matter. After Collins you have a toss-up between Raleigh Williams and Kody Walker as the next man up at running back.