Leveraging Vegas - CFB Targets: Week 8

by David Kaplen (headChopper) Last Updated 2015-10-26 15:31:19

In this article, we’ll pinpoint the week’s highest Vegas totals in college football and explore the best CFB DFS targets from there.

Each team will have its own chart, which will show projected points, pace of play, along with other important statistics, and I’ll then have detailed analysis breaking down my preferred targets.

Legend

Proj. Points – Projected points Las Vegas has set for this team.
Pace – Offensive Plays per Game.
OSRS – Offensive Simple rating System, a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. In this scale, 0 is average.
Pass Def. Rating – A more advanced method of defining pass defense success beyond yards and TDs. In 2014, 128 rating was the average in CFB. The lower the better.

Iowa State @ Baylor

The matchup with Baylor and their high-paced offense is typically good for any fantasy player of the opposition. I’m a little leery of Sam Richardson who is losing a few snaps a game to his backup. Even without that though, it’s still difficult to trust Richardson as he hasn’t exceeded 269 yards passing all year long. This Iowa State offense boils down to two players. Mike Warren at running back has been very solid since he started to get the bulk of the carries this year. Before last week’s game against TCU, he had put up three straight games of 100+ rushing yards. Clearly being underdog by more than 30 points is going to throw a monkey wrench into the running game, but Warren can still get it done regardless. The other guy I would be looking at is Allen Lazard ($5,100 DK), the wide receiver. He’s being targeted on over 25% of the teams passing plays this year and is the one guy who can make plays from this wide receiving corps.

Let’s make this short and sweet on Baylor. Seth Russell ($9,400 DK), the quarterback, is probably the most dependable fantasy quarterback in the nation. If he’s not number one, then he’s at least number two behind Greg Ward. He’s a virtual lock for 30 points plus almost any week. When he throws the ball, his main receiver is Corey Coleman who has 16 touchdowns on the year and averages 146 yards a game. Corey Coleman is clearly the number-one fantasy wide receiver in the nation, hands down, no questions asked. Outside of Coleman you can look to Jay Lee and KD Cannon as possible second-tier targets. They’re very similar players in that they each receive the 5 1/2 targets a game good for around 15% of the market share in the offense. The big difference would be Lee has six touchdowns and Cannon only has two. On the ground, Shock Linwood has been a stud this year. Last week’s game against West Virginia with 84 yards and a touchdown was actually his lowest in a while, and still he received 19 carries. In this offense with a player of his skill level, you’re just looking at how many rushing attempts will he get. So the 19 stands out is a very positive number. Against a week defense and a blowout, I would expect him to go over 100 yards pretty easily this game and find the in zone for the sixth straight game.

Washington State @ Arizona

Washington State and Arizona square off this weekend in a classic Pac-12 shootout. Looking at the defensive numbers for these two teams it’s easy to see why this game has such a high projected total. Let me just start off by acknowledging the Washington State running backs. Don’t play them. Moving on. Luke Falk is once again one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in nation this year. This is just a pass-first, pass-happy offense that airs it out, and he is a solid quarterback with good receivers, meaning he’s going to put a great numbers just about every week. He’s got over 2,300 yards and 21 touchdowns this year and is taking on a defense with a pass rating against of over 133. He should find plenty of room to operate on Saturday. His receiving corps is a three-headed monster. Choosing which wide receiver is going to have a blowup game is proving to be a tad bit difficult this year. It seems like they’re all rotating. Gabe Marks has to be considered the number one receiver on the team averaging 11 targets per game. Last week we saw the big blowup game from Dominique Williams who has six touchdowns this year to equal Marks. Lurking in the shadows is River Cracraft, who averages 8.3 targets per game and has three touchdowns thus far. After we saw Williams go ham last week I wouldn’t be surprised to see this week with Cracraft as the top receiver. Gabe Marks is the steadiest of the bunch.

Arizona’s offense is also more probable than not to have a huge game on Saturday. How they get there is going to be much trickier, though, than Washington State. Start with the quarterback, Anu Solomon, who is a very solid player. The price tag on DraftKings is acceptable, and I think he makes for a decent play this weekend. His wide receivers are much more difficult to handpick in pairing with him. Nobody is over 18% of the market share in the wide receiving corps. It’s all jumbled up with Caleb Jones, Nate Phillips, Johnny Jackson and David Richards being your top targets. Running back is a position I think Arizona can exploit Washington State in this game. The problem is number-one running back Nick Wilson missed last game after injuring himself two weeks ago. Jared Baker stepped up last week and started and ran for 207 yards and two touchdowns. If Wilson is out then Baker makes for a fantastic play. The problem is I’m not sure we will find out that information till later in the day. Keep your eyes posted. If Nick Wilson where to start I wouldn’t hesitate to fire him up in this game either.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma

This Texas Tech/Oklahoma game has the makings of a fantasy shootout. Texas Tech goes on the road in this game lead by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He’s been fantastic this year with 26 total touchdowns to go along with some big yardage numbers. He’s constantly and under owned an underrated fantasy threat. His wide receiving corps is made up of is number one option, Jakeem Grant, Who has 719 yards this year and four touchdowns on 49 receptions. Last week Devon Lauderdale returned to the lineup and caught five passes for 50 yards. In a game that I could see Oklahoma try and take away the number one option, I could see Lauderdale having a decent game. He’s a big play guy. Last week’s game against Kansas was supposed to be a blowout but instead Texas Tech came very close to being upset. It benefited DeAndre Washington who ended up with the most carries he’s had all year long and turned it into 157 yards and a touchdown. I wouldn’t feel as good in this game about Washington. He is having a solid year averaging 7.0 yards a carry and finding the in zone seven times so far, but it is going to be a tougher matchup the normal against this Oklahoma defensive line.

Baker Mayfield look pretty solid last week in a 55-0 blowout. This Texas Tech defense is dreadfully bad this year. Mayfield has turned into somewhat of a dual-threat with 19 passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns this year. This is as good of a spot as any quarterback this week. It just depends if this is the high-dollar option you want to take. Sterling Shepard is the number one option in this offense grabbing seven targets per game. However, the stat lines haven’t turned out the way we planned. He’s only exceeded 100 yards in one game back against Tulsa. However last week he got on track with a two touchdown performance against Kansas State. I would expect him to have a good game against a terrible defense. Dee Westbrook is the number two wide receiver in this offense this year. Over the last five games he’s alternated between four or five receptions in each of those games and scored one touchdown with one 100 yard performance. I think his stat line in this game covers somewhere around the five reception 90 yard mark. It’s not bad but his day is going to be made or lost on whether he can find the in zone or not. Against a pretty bad defense I kind of like his odds.

Indiana @ Michigan State

Again this week Nate Sudfeld has a low price tag on DraftKings. And even though Indiana’s team total in this game is bordering on only 24 points and the matchup against Michigan State is probably not nearly as good as Rutgers was last week, I still think for that price tag he’s an acceptable play. Once again though it is going to hinge on the health of Jordan Howard. If Jordan Howard is in the game and running well it will take away from Sudfeld. Speaking of Howard we still don’t know his status for this weekend. Devine Redding has been to go to running back in his absence. He ran for 99 yards and two touchdowns last week. Three weeks ago against Ohio State he carried the ball 30 times and scored two touchdowns. If Howard is out then Redding is your guy. Indiana is a pretty simple team in the passing game. Sudfeld has two main targets. Ricky Jones and Simmie Cobbs. Ricky Jones averages 7.7 targets per game and Cobbs averages 6.7. Depending on who the defense chooses to take away, the other guy will have a decent game most instances.

Michigan State has one of the premier matchups this week against Indiana’s weak defense. I think Connor Cook makes for a solid play as long as the game can stay with somewhat competitive. He shouldn’t have a problem slicing through this defense, as long as there is a need to. When he passes it’s a pretty simple formula. He’s usually going to throw to Aaron Burbridge. Burbridge averages 11 targets per game and is clearly the leading wide receiver on this team. The fate of these two guys rests with Indiana’s ability to put some points on the board and force the issue. Typically running back for Michigan State has been a fantastic position for years now. But right now it’s in disarray. Madre London is hurt and LJ Scott, the number one running back, hasn’t reached double digit rushing attempts the last two weeks. Taking a chance on Scott this week would be enormous leap of faith considering his touches the last two games.

Virginia @ North Carolina

Virginia has been known over the past decade has a terrible offensive team in fantasy circles. This year however they actually have some spark as evidenced by this big 64 point total in this game with North Carolina. You’re starting quarterback is Matt Johns who is solid yet unspectacular this season with over 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s not a recommended play. However he does have one receiver whom I don’t have a problem targeting. Canaan Severin is averaging 8.3 targets per game which he’s converted to 418 yards and three touchdowns. I think he makes for a sneaky play this week in a potential shootout. Taquan Mizzell is the starting running back for Virginia and he has some great numbers for draft kings scoring format. His rushing numbers are pretty mundane with 254 yards and two touchdowns on the ground averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. However it is receiving stats that stand out. He has 35 receptions year and three touchdowns through the air. I think he makes for a solid large field tournament played on Saturday.

I like North Carolina in this game from all different angles. Their Vegas team total is up at 41 and I think they have a good opportunity at home to put up some monster numbers. It all starts with Marquis Williams at quarterback. He’s finally starting to deliver on their preseason hype having averaged 33 points on draft Kings in three of the last four games. He’s got 2 100 yard rushing performances in that span. He is a standalone quarterback, meaning you don’t need to handcuff him to any wide receiver. And that’s a good thing in this offense because there isn’t a wide receiver that stands out. You have the top three guys that average 5.0, 5.3, 5.8 targets per game. And none of those guys has exceeded two touchdowns on the year. That’s Quinshad Davis, Bug Howard and Ryan Switzer. You can try to play one of these guys but it’s a total crapshoot and I wouldn’t recommend it. On the ground Elijah Hood has emerged as a very solid running back. He averages 6.9 yards per carry and has six touchdowns on the year. The problem with Hood is that, although he is ultra-productive when he touches the ball, he only received eight carries last week to go along with 12 carries the week before that right on down the line this year. His highest carry total this year has been 16 rushing attempts. He doesn’t get the volume, but when he gets the rock in his hands he’s extremely valuable.

Bowling Green @ Kent State

Bowling Green goes on the road this week to take on Kent State. The fact that this game is on the road bodes well for Bowling Green as it may keep it a bit closer on the scoreboard thus forcing Bowling Green to put up more points. Their led by Matt Johnson their quarterback. He’s having a phenomenal season having thrown for nearly 2,900 yards this year and a 24 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Throw in 100 yards on the ground with two touchdowns rushing and he’s having a superb fantasy season for. Roger Lewis is the unquestioned receiver that you want to target in this game. He’s already reached 1000 yards receiving with nine touchdowns. He averages 11.3 targets per game and although he is expensive, he has to be considered a top three wide receiver this week. His wide receiver running mates are a bit tougher to decipher. Gehrig Dieter averages 9.6 targets pregame and Ronnie Moore averages 8.4. Those numbers alone scream high-volume for the passing game. However they haven’t been nearly as productive with their receptions as Roger Lewis has. They have a combined five touchdowns between the two of them. Travis Greene has resumed his duties as first-team running back in the offense. The senior has averaged 15 carries per game the last three weeks and over that span has reached the hundred yard marker two times. There’s clearly scenarios every week Bowling Green plays where Travis Greene could be there leading scorer and this week is no exception. I wouldn’t trust him in cash games, but he always makes for a solid large field tournament play.

Kent State is a team that most people haven’t had an opportunity to research thoroughly seeing as how this is probably one of the first times in the player pool. George Bollas has taken over as the starting quarterback for this team and, although he has rushing potential, his 16.3 points on draft Kings last week versus UMASS is probably where his average is going to sit this year if not lower. There’s not a receiver on this team that averages more than four targets per game. I’m just not sure I can invest any roster space in a team where the two leading receivers haven’t scored a touchdown this year. Kent State is a team that runs the ball 57% of the time. That’s a high number for college football. They’re leading running back is Trayion Durham who has 300 yards on the year but only scored two touchdowns. With that being said he only ran the ball five times last week. Raekwon James carried the ball 20 times last week for 85 yards but prior to that game his high carry total for a game this year had been eight. Basically I think these guys are dart throws in tournaments but I wouldn’t even contemplate taking them in cash games.