Levitan's Leverage: Week 4
When trying to grind out a 57 percent edge over our opponents, recency bias is perhaps our biggest ally. The most common mistake the public makes when projecting this week’s stats is assuming last week is a huge factor.
People who got burned by Khiry Robinson or Jordy Nelson last week are unlikely to go back to the well this week even though they should. Kirk Cousins was too highly owned on Thursday night given the fact he was on a short week facing an elite corner duo in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara. Darren Sproles was outrageously highly owned in Week 3. In other words, last week’s stats are a piece of the puzzle but far from the final answer.
The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs.
FADES
1. Ladarius Green
Editor’s Update: Ladarius Green is now Questionable with a hamstring injury.
Box-score watchers will think Ladarius Green passed Antonio Gates on the depth chart in Week 3. Green had 4-64-0 on six targets while Gates had 1-8-0 on one target. But those numbers are extremely fluky if we look at underlying usage. Gates actually ran 23 pass routes on 45 snaps compared to nine pass routes on 23 snaps for Green. Yes, Green was targeted an unsustainable six times on nine pass routes.
I definitely want to have exposure to Chargers tight ends this week as they face a Jags team that gave up 6-62-1 to Zach Ertz/Brent Celek in Week 1, 8-99-1 to Niles Paul Week 2 and 8-92-2 to Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen. Could Ladarius turn his meager usage into a big game? Sure. But Gates is the much better bet, and I’ll have plenty of him at $5800 if I’m not using Jimmy Graham ($8200) in the dream spot against Dallas.
2. LeSean McCoy
Last year, the Eagles started the same five offensive linemen in all 16 games: LT Jason Peters, LG Evan Mathis, C Jason Kelce, RG Todd Herremans and RT Lane Johnson. They finished with a +139.1 run blocking grade, per PFF – an incredible 70 points higher than the second-place 49ers (+69.4). On Sunday, the Eagles offensive line projects to look like this due to a rash of injuries and suspensions: LT Jason Peters, LG Dennis Kelly, C David Molk, RG Todd Herremans, RT Matt Tobin. These backups have been a train wreck so far, especially in last week’s win over the Redskins.
Now they have to go to San Francisco to face a desperate 1-2 49ers team that won’t have Navarro Bowman or Aldon Smith, but still has RE Justin Smith and NT Ian Williams. They’re yielding just 3.83 yards per carry to opponents on the season. I hate fading a Barry Sanders kind of talent like LeSean McCoy ($8700), but the situation is not right. If I’m paying up for a running back, it’s going to be DeMarco Murray $9000, Le’Veon Bell $8000 or Matt Forte $8600.
CONTRARIAN GPP TWO-MAN GPP STACK
1. Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson
When looking for upside in a fantasy quarterback, we want aggressive downfield throwers that aren’t afraid to make mistakes. We don’t want game-manager types a la Alex Smith. With that in mind, Bortles is exactly what we’re looking for. He’s a grip it and rip it kind of quarterback, as evidenced by his hefty 16.1 yards per completion average through five NFL appearances (including preseason). When Bortles came off the bench last week, he threw for 223 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in one half. Of course he was aided by the Jags being down 30-0 when he got in, but there aren’t that many quarterback capable of those gaudy numbers in two quarters.
Bortles also has significant talent on the outside to work with. Cecil Shorts is the safer possession guy, but Allen Robinson is the upside playmaker. The rookie with a draft-class best 41-inch vertical leap played on 20 snaps in Week 1, 30 in Week 2 and 42 in Week 3. He’s moving ahead of UDFA Allen Hurns and has turned his last 16 targets into 11-154-0. The best part of this stack is that Bortles costs $6500 and A-Rob is $5100. Using them with something like the Texans D and Robbie Gould leaves an average of $7760 to fill the final five spots in our roster.
SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON
1. Teddy Bridgewater’s First Start
Kirk Cousins ownership percentage was nowhere near where it should have been last week, probably because people fear the unknown a lot at quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater’s percentage will be even less as he makes his first NFL start. Now don’t get me wrong, we do not have the same ceiling we had with Cousins as we have with Bridgewater. Teddy is more of a mistake-free type who will be operating without Kyle Rudolph or Adrian Peterson. But at just $5900, I like him as a sneaky cash-game play.
Vegas is projecting the Vikings to score a healthy 22 points at home against a bad Falcons defense. If Minnesota is going to keep up with this Falcons offense (they’re only 2.5-point underdogs), it will have to be with the pass game – we know Matt Asiata can’t run. So in order for Bridgewater to “pay off” that $5900 price tag, he only needs 200 pass yards and one touchdown. I think he’s an excellent bet to get that and more. I like Teddy for cash and the aforementioned Bortles more for GPP.
2. Donald Brown’s workload
Sometimes, two plus two does equal four. The Chargers will be without both Ryan Mathews (knee) and Danny Woodhead (ankle), leaving only UDFA Branden Oliver and newly signed Shaun Draughn behind Donald Brown. So we’re looking at a minimum of 20 touches with goal-line work for Brown against a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed, dead last in rush yards allowed, 23rd in YPC allowed and dead last in points allowed. At just $6300, it’s going to be hard not to use Brown in cash game lineups.
MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT
1. Michael Crabtree and Colin Kaepernick vs. Cary Williams
Eagles CB Cary Williams loves to talk but doesn’t back it up on the field. He’s the one that got humiliated by Allen Hurns in Week 1 and got his hands bloody when Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson combined for 16-255-2 last week. This Eagles defense made Kirk Cousins look like Dan Marino and we all saw what Cousins did Thursday night. They’ll also likely be without LB Mychal Kendricks (calf) again, their best cover linebacker and a true rising star. Backups Clay Matthews and Emmanuel Acho can’t play.
I don’t like to roster Colin Kaepernick in cash games due to his week-to-week inconsistencies, but the spot is definitely right for an eruption here, GPP style. This game has an over/under of 50.5. The 49ers are favored by five points as the desperate team at home and the Eagles have already gotten ripped by the likes of Chad Henne, Andrew Luck and Cousins. Kapernick’s most likely target is Michael Crabtree, as he’ll be on the outside where he gets to see the most of Williams. Eagles slot corner Brandon Boykin projects to erase Stevie Johnson and some of Anquan Boldin’s upside.
WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES
QB: Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater
RB: Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, Donald Brown, Khiry Robinson
WR: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks
TE: Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates
D/ST: Texans, Dolphins, Colts