Levitan's Leverage: Week 6

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-10-12 19:31:18

The theme of this week in both DFS and season-long leagues is backup running backs. Ronnie Hillman, Andre Williams and Branden Oliver were all anyone wanted to talk about as people get excited about potential volume at the running back spot.

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Out of the three, I think Oliver is clearly the best play thanks to both his natural ability (watch the preseason tape and Week 5 romp if you have doubts) and situation (at Oakland without both Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown). Williams will be an excellent play if the Giants get a lead or can stay within one score, but if they get behind in Philly he’s going to lose a ton of snaps to Peyton Hillis. Hillman is a fade for me, as described below.

The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs.

FADES

1. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos

Ronnie Hillman was all the rage on season-long waiver wires this week thanks to Montee Ball’s groin injury. However, I preferred Branden Oliver and Andre Williams. Hillman has had plenty of chances to run with the feature back job before in Denver, only to crumble and subsequently tumble down the depth chart. As for this week on FanDuel, he’ll be a very popular play thanks to a $5900 price tag (less than Oliver/Williams) and starting role for the explosive Broncos. But note that during the Peyton Manning era, the starting running back only receives about 50-55% of the carries. They averaged 26.4 RB carries per game last year and are at 12.5 this year. So I’d set Hillman’s projection at anywhere from 10-15 carries plus a little pass-game work, but he lacks power in the hole and does not profile as a goal-line runner (backups C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson do). So we have to fight a high ownership percentage, potential ineffectiveness against the league’s No. 6 run defense playing at home, and a cap on volume. I’d spend the extra $300 and go for Oliver.

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2. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants

Since signing CBs Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher prior to the 2013 season, the Eagles have given up more passing yards than any team in the league. This duo is atrocious and it’s only exacerbated by the extra snaps they play thanks to Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. I know that’s going to lead people toward predicting a bounce-back game for Victor Cruz, but there’s a big problem with that: He plays the slot, where dominant Eagles slot man Brandon Boykin roams. Boykin was PFF’s No. 2 cover corner last year and is No. 4 this season. In two matchups last year, Cruz posted 12 catches, 134 yards and no touchdowns. This year, he’ll have to share targets with an emerging Rueben Randle, impressive (and healthy) rookie Odell Beckham and breakout TE Larry Donnell. That’s a lot of mouths to feed. Look for the Giants to attack this Eagles defense on the perimeter to exploit Williams/Fletcher and with Donnell to exploit Mychal Kendricks’ (calf) absence. Cruz could very well be the odd man out.

3. Justin Hunter, WR, Titans

It pains me to fade one of my preseason favorites in Justin Hunter, but the cat is way too far out of the bag right now. Everyone knows he finally moved into the starting “X” role last week, playing on 68-of-70 snaps compared to 48 snaps for former starter Nate Washington. Hunter is also just $5900 and is facing a Jacksonville defense that is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The entire DFS community – both public and sharp – is going to think they’re being sneaky by riding the explosively talented Hunter, he of the poor man’s A.J. Green skillset.

Given that extremely high ownership percentage, I think we can strategically fade based on two factors. First, Charlie Whitehurst didn’t earn the nickname “checkdown Charlie” by pushing the ball down the field. His career yards-per-completion average is 10.7, compared to 12.2 for Jake Locker (doubtful, thumb). Although Hunter’s 75-yard Week 5 TD came on a play-action ball over the top, the checkdown stuff Whitehurst typically likes is better suited for Kendall Wright or Delanie Walker. Second, the somewhat raw Hunter has not been a good football player this season. He’s dropped five passes on just 30 targets and forced a meager three missed tackles on his 12 catches. He doesn’t have more than three catches in any game despite playing on 256-of-323 snaps (79.2 percent). So what we have is a very highly-owned player surrounded by major question marks at both quarterback (Whitehurst was benched for Zach Mettenberger late in his brutal Week 4 start) and efficiency.

CONTRARIAN GPP TWO-MAN STACK

Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed

Kirk Cousins appears toxic in the DFS community because he played horrendously on a Thursday night against a very good Giants secondary. Those that kept the faith were rewarded with a contrarian DeSean Jackson play against the Seahawks Monday night. Cousins can certainly fill a box score, as evidenced by his 304.2 yards per game and 2.0 touchdowns through four starts. The way to beat the Cardinals is not with Alfred Morris and the run game (ARZ No. 4 run D), but through the air (No. 31 pass D). Specifically, with the tight end. Arizona vs. No. 1 TEs this year: Antonio Gates 6-81-0, Larry Donnell 7-81-0, Vernon Davis DNP, Julius Thomas 6-66-2. Jordan Reed is obviously a risk as he comes off a nasty hammy pull, but that makes him both super contrarian and cheap ($5100).

SITUATION TO CAPITALIZE ON

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Brandon Marshall Squeaking

We’ve seen it over and over again with star (or “diva”) receivers in this league. They whine about their usage and then the squeaky wheel gets greased. Well, we have that situation with Brandon Marshall right now, and he’s also in an amazing spot. The ankle that has bothered so much is finally healed, the Falcons pass defense is worse than their No. 23 ranking suggests, this game has the week’s highest over/under at 54, and Jay Cutler won’t let his Bromance buddy down. Marshall averaged 10.1 targets per game last year when Cutler was under center – he’s only at 7.4 right now.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

Matt Ryan at Home

Even with Drew Brees on a bye, there are a ton of quality options at quarterback this week. I just can’t get off Matt Ryan in both cash and GPP against Chicago. Over the last two years, he’s averaging 307.5 passing yards at home vs. 274.4 on the road. The Bears are without Charles Tillman, leaving Julio Jones and Roddy White to feast on Kyle Fuller and Tim Jennings. Starting free safety Chris Conte (concussion) is questionable. The over/under in this game is 54, by far the highest of the week. Brian Fontaine pointed out how Chicago’s lack of a pass rush is huge for the Falcons in his Advanced Matchup Plays. I know I’m choking on chalk here, but I’m just about all-in on Matty Ice in this spot.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES