Levitan's Leverage: Week 8

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-10-27 13:38:21

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The pricing on FanDuel has been incredibly tight over the last couple weeks. There just aren’t very many “free squares,” as Dan Back likes to say at this point in the season. That’s why we see guys like Peyton Manning at 5 percent ownership in Week 7 GPPs – and it makes “paying up to be contrarian” a strategy worth exploring on FanDuel.

Of course, if we’re paying up for X than we’re going to have to save at Y. Jerick McKinnon is going to be very popular this week for that reason and I like him. But it gets really tricky beyond that. The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.

FADES

1. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers

Yes, I’m fading one of the only sure things in fantasy football. Antonio Brown continues to ride his 23-game streak of games with at least five catches and 50 yards, proving to be among of the game’s best players – not just a star among wideouts. A lot of people are going to use him because he has at least 10.9 FanDuel points in every game this year, averaging 18.9 points per day. He’s warm, safe and fuzzy.

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However, this week Brown has to face a secondary I typically do not like to test. The Colts give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. A big part of that is RCB Vontae Davis, PFF’s No. 1 cover corner. With Dez Bryant (see below) and Jordy Nelson only $100 more, I’ll be avoiding Brown if paying up at wideout.

2. Tre Mason, Bryce Brown, Denard Robinson (Waiver Wire RB Heroes)

I have a feeling the season-long players are going to come into DFS this weekend with two fists on the week’s Waiver Wire RB darlings — especially given their cheap salaries and aforementioned tight pricing. The season-longers think they have Branden Olivers and Ronnie Hillmans on their hands. Well, they don’t. There are major problems with each:

- Tre Mason is a two-down back that needs his team ahead to be effective (a la Andre Williams, Alf Morris, Marshawn Lynch), yet the Rams are 7.5-point dogs at Kansas City. A letdown is very possible as the Rams go on the road after a stirring home upset of the Seahawks.

- Bryce Brown is unlikely to even start (Anthony Dixon will likely play the Fred Jackson role) and is facing a Jets run defense that is PFF’s No. 1 unit by a wide margin. The Bills have PFF’s No. 28 run-blocking offensive line.

- Denard Robinson is going to start, but Toby Gerhart (foot) is going to get some reps. Thanks in large part to game flow and inept offensive line play, the Jags only average 18.0 running back carries per game this season. So if Robinson gets a generous 70 percent of them, he’s only looking at a 12.6 carry projection and is facing the PFF’s No. 2 run defense.

3. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks

People are going overboard with Doug Baldwin. The narrative says now that Percy Harvin is gone, Baldwin is a No. 1 receiver that’s going to be putting up weekly WR1 type numbers. That belief is only enhanced by the fact that he went 7-123-1 on 10 targets last week, showing up on the roster of just about every big GPP winner.

However, not too much has changed with Baldwin. Yes, he’ll play fewer snaps in the old Golden Tate perimeter role and see more action in the more productive slot spot. But he played on 89.2 percent of the total snaps in the first five games of this season versus 82.1 percent in the first post-Percy game. Remember that Harvin barely played last season and Tate was stuck in the X-iso role, yet Baldwin only had 50-778-5, a line that included zero 100-yard games. His fluky outburst against the Rams was also aided by game flow, something I don’t think he’ll have on his side in Carolina. Coming off an embarrassing loss, I think the Seahawks get a lead and grind in a game they’re favored by five points.

CONTRARIAN TWO-MAN GPP STACK

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Nick Foles and Zach Ertz

At this point, we know what the Arizona defense is. They’re going to play extremely stout run defense (currently lead the league in YPC against at 3.15) and get thrashed by the pass (31st in the league in pass yards against at 284.8 per game). Of course, the place where they get thrashed the most is by the tight end. In 2013, the Cardinals gave up the most points to opposing tight ends by a wide margin. That included Zach Ertz’s breakout game, a 5-68-2 line in Week 13. So far this year, they’ve given up the eighth-most points to tight ends. As the Eagles come out of their bye, the gameplan should feature less of Brent Celek the run-blocker and more of Ertz the dominant pass-catcher.

As for Foles, it’s about pace. The Eagles rank third in the league in offensive plays run per game and Arizona would rank fourth in that category in games Carson Palmer starts (hat tip to PFF’s Pat Thorman). So although Foles has been mediocre at best this season in terms of real-life performance, he’s had at least 14.5 FanDuel points in five of six games. Given the struggles of Arizona’s pass defense, their brutal pass rush (PFF’s No. 31 unit in that category) and the pristine throwing conditions as Foles comes off the bye, he is set up for a big day at a very reasonable $8200 price. I also like Carson Palmer at $7400.

SITUATION TO CAPITALIZE ON

Justin Hunter’s Upgrade at Quarterback

In plus matchups over the last three weeks, Justin Hunter has played on 177-of-185 snaps (95.6 percent) as he’s held the starting “X” job over Nate Washington. Yet he’s posted a disappointing 7-182-1 on just 12 total targets. What gives? Well, part of it is Hunter’s still raw on-field play. But a bigger part of it was quarterback performance, as he just isn’t a fit with Checkdown Charlie Whitehurst. Well, the Titans made a big move this week in the form of Zach Mettenberger, who can be Hunter’s Moses and lead him to the promised land. The immobile yet big-armed and aggressive Mettenberger was a monster in the preseason, posting a 9.69 yards per attempt (YPA) average. Coming into Week 8, Philip Rivers led the NFL in that category at 8.53. If Mettenberger can get some time despite the presence of J.J. Watt and maybe Jadeveon Clowney (questionable, knee), his style is a perfect fit for Hunter’s vertical playmaking ability. I’ll have a lot of Hunter in GPPs at just $5300.

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT

1. Dez Bryant vs. Redskins Secondary

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It’s scary to think what Dez Bryant is going to do to this defense. Desperately needing a strong pass rush to cover up their back-end woes, the Redskins lost stud OLB Brian Orakpo to a torn pectoral this week. Of course, they’re also without top CB DeAngelo Hall (IR, Achilles), leaving David Amerson and Bashaud Breeland as starters. Among PFF’s 106 qualifying corners, Amerson ranks 85th and Breeland 95th. I have Dez and Jordy Nelson ($8800 each) head-and-shoulders above any other wideout play this week and I suspect Dez will be lesser owned than Jordy in tournaments.

2. Ben Tate vs. Raiders Defense

A ton of people (myself included) got burned really badly by Ben Tate’s 16-36-0 line at Jacksonville last week. A lot of those people are not going to want to roster him again this week, which sets us up perfectly to double down. Tate has received a healthy 63.6 percent of the Browns running back carries over the last three weeks and is facing an Oakland defense that has given up these stat-lines their last three games: Andre Ellington 30 touches, 160 yards; Branden Oliver 30 touches, 124 yards, 1 TD. Lamar Miller 14 touches, 67 yards, 2 TDs. With the Browns at home and favored by seven points, game flow should be on Tate’s side. Kyle Shanahan will want to run the ball 35 times, which means a 22-carry projection for Tate.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES (excluding ATL/DET)