Levitan's Leverage: Week 9

by AdamLevitan Last Updated 2014-11-05 01:54:50

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Welcome to Jeremy Hill week on FanDuel. With very few “free squares” out there once again, Hill is going to be massively owned in every contest. Last week’s free square was Jerick McKinnon, who was roughly 25 percent owned in GPPs and disappointed with 8.7 FD points. I’d expect Hill’s ownership number to be closer to 40 percent. He’s a must for me in most cash games, but a GPP fade would make plenty of sense as the Jags haven’t given up a 100-yard rusher since Week 7 of the 2013 season (Ryan Mathews 21-110-1).

The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.

FADES

1. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

With the FanDuel pricing so tight, we have to hit big when we pay up. Demaryius Thomas for $9200 is not one I’m paying up for this week. Yes, Demaryius went 7-134-1 in a home win over the Broncos in last year’s playoffs. But he also was held to 4-41-1 in a Week 12 loss at New England – and both of those aforementioned games were without Darrelle Revis. This week, I suspect that we’ll see a lot of Revis on Demaryius, slot man Kyle Arrington on Wes Welker, physical 6’4/221 CB Brandon Browner on Julius Thomas and Alfonzo Dennard on Emmanuel Sanders. Will it definitely go down like that? No, but there’s enough chance that it will to frighten me.

The other issues here are weather and gameplanning. While Tom Brady is among the best poor-weather quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen, Peyton Manning is among the worst. He’s an even worse bet to cut through wind now that his arm strength is completely sapped. Forecast for Sunday in Foxboro: High of 44 degrees with a 50 percent chance of rain and winds at 20+ MPH. Here’s a look at how YPA is affected by wind speed, courtesy of Jonathan Bales (taken from his book, which can be found here):

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This should lead to a run-based gameplan from the Broncos, something that makes sense as Bill Belichick typically plays coverage and tries to stop Manning anyway in these matchups. I like Ronnie Hillman ($7200) a lot more than the Denver passing attack this week, especially from a point-per-dollar approach.

2. Brandon LaFell, WR, Patriots

This is a pretty straightforward one. I suspect people are going to be on Brandon LaFell because he was in just about every GPP-winning lineup last week and is playing 86 percent of the snaps as a go-to guy for a white-hot Tom Brady. However, this week LaFell will be facing outside corners Chris Harris (PFF’s No. 1 cover corner this season) and Aqib Talib (No. 16). He’s just not good enough to win consistently in those spots. Rob Gronkowski and slot man Julian Edelman project as the featured players for Brady Sunday.

CONTRARIAN TWO-MAN GPP STACKS

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1. Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton

Yes, I know these are chalk names. But given the FanDuel pricing, I would expect low ownership for Andrew Luck at an eye-opening $10,100 pricetag. We’ve seen this before, as Peyton Manning had sub-5 percent ownership in GPPs when he lit the Cardinals in Week 5. It’s easy to look at the results and say, “I can’t believe I didn’t use Peyton,” but when building lineups it’s difficult to fit. This is simply paying up to be contrarian in a fine spot for Luck at the Giants on Monday night. So how can we use 30 percent of our cap on 2-of-9 players and still field a roster? Jeremy Hill, Travis Kelce, Donte Moncrief (who fits with the stack) and Michael Floyd are names with upside that come to mind. This Luck/Hilton/Moncrief play is not one I’d make on DraftKings, where their ownership will be far higher thanks to softer pricing.

2. Robert Griffin III and DeSean Jackson

The default position for most owners is to take a wait-and-see approach with players coming off injuries like Robert Griffin III’s dislocated ankle. Especially after RG3 looked poor in the preseason and Week 1. That’s what makes him a nice GPP play, as his legs combined with strong arm are always going to have blowup appeal. DeSean Jackson, feasting on deep balls this year, gets a boost with Griffin’s cannon back in and will also see plenty of burnable Vikings CB Josh Robinson.

SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON

1. Travis Kelce vs. the Jets defensive strengths

Opponents don’t even try to mess with a Jets front seven that is giving up just 3.33 YPC (4th-best in the league) and three rushing touchdowns (T-2nd best). The clearest example of this was New England in Week 7, as Tom Brady attempted 37 passes and the Patriots totaled 14 running back carries against Rex Ryan’s unit. The Jets face the Chiefs this week, and we know you don’t have to beg pass-happy playcaller Andy Reid to abandon the run game.

So although I don’t expect Travis Kelce’s frustrating snap count to change (55.1 percent over the last four games), I do expect him to get more opportunities than he’s seen. When Alex Smith throws, he looks short – just one of his 29 passes last week traveled more than 10 yards in the air. And as Rotoworld’s Evan Silva pointed out on Twitter, Smith has thrown zero touchdown passes to wide receivers. Meanwhile the Jets have given up 22 touchdown passes, by far the worst in the league – a number that includes a league-high nine to tight ends. It will obviously be hard to get off Rob Gronkowski ($7900) in standard contests, but I think Kelce ($5400) makes sense in the 1pm only and GPP games. All he needs is 5-7 targets to do serious damage.

2. Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace vs. a declining Chargers defense

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Don’t get fooled into thinking this Chargers defense is the same one that allowed just 12.6 points per game through the first five weeks. The injury bug has bit them hard, namely in the form of ILB Matni Te’o (foot) and impressive rookie CB Jason Verett (shoulder). Now they’re in a spot I love to target, a west coast team going east for a 1pm ET start and they’re also facing a Dolphins offense that is really coming together in this Bill Lazor scheme. Most interestingly, the read-option has become a legit threat here, helping Ryan Tannehill to at least 35 rush yards in each of the last four weeks. Although deep ball effectiveness to speedster Mike Wallace still leaves plenty to be desired, Lazor is predictably force-feeding the ball to his most explosive perimeter weapon – he’s not just going long and hoping for the best. Wallace has at least seven targets in 6-of-7 games this year and 25 in his last three. Last year, Lazor was in Philly where DeSean Jackson took advantage of similar usage to post a career outlier season (82-1332-9). The reason I’d consider Wallace more of a GPP than cash play is because stud corner Brandon Flowers (concussion) is expected to return.

MATCHUP TO EXPLOIT

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Eagles corners

Michael Floyd’s airball last week was especially confounding because it came against an Eagles corner duo that we know is inept. Consider it a fluke, aided by two tough drops for Floyd and a freaky big game from possession receiver Larry Fitzgerald. DeAndre Hopkins will have no trouble lighting up Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams, and his market share of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s throws is rising. After averaging just 5.5 targets per game through the first six weeks, Hopkins saw nine in Week 7 and 11 in Week 8. There’s always blowup appeal with talented players against the Eagles because their fastbreak style yields so many possessions (Philly opponents run 70.9 plays per game, second-most in league). More chances to run routes against Fletcher and Williams means more box-score production.

WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES