LiamPicksFights' MMA Article: UFC 280
UFC 280
Hardcore fight fans will need no reminder that this weekend is the most stacked UFC event of the year, but as Dana White likes to say, “if you don’t know, now you know.” The undisputed lightweight championship will be awarded to the winner of a highly anticipated clash between former champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and the ascending prospect from Dagestan, Islam Makhachev. In addition, the card is loaded with action fights, another title fight in the bantamweight division, and a bevy of important conterdership fights that will help shape the future of several marquee divisions in the UFC.
Karol Rosa vs. Lina Lansberg
Fight Odds: -340 Rosa vs. +265 Lansberg
Weight Class: 135lb. (Women’s Bantamweight)
This fight sticks out on the card like a sore thumb because the overall quality of the fight card is extremely high and this matchup in particular is rock bottom in terms of levels of anticipation. Lansberg appears to be in the twilight of her career as a forty-year-old women’s bantamweight and Rosa is in desperate need of a tune-up fight after dropping a unanimous decision to another aging fighter in Sara McMann. This appears to be a must-win spot for Rosa and her volume, low kicks, and takedown upside should carry her to a pretty straightforward victory.
Prediction: Karol Rosa defeats Lina Lansberg via UDEC
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Malcolm Gordon
Fight Odds: -1300 Mokaev vs. +800 Gordon
Weight Class: 125lb. (Flyweight)
Muhammad Mokaev is the biggest betting favorite on this fight card and with good reason. He has a ton of mixed martial arts experience as an amateur and an impressive undefeated pro career. He aspires to be the youngest champion in UFC history by leveraging his charismatic personality, his highly developed grappling and scrambling, and his superior athleticism to take over the flyweight division one fight at a time. Malcolm Gordon was able to maximize his upside and secure a win over Denys Bondar via first-round injury TKO in his most recent bout, cashing me a +210 ticket. However, I think Gordon is completely outmatched in this spot and his durability or lack thereof should cost him early and often against an aggressive and confident opponent like Muhammad Mokaev. I expect Mokaev to handle business quickly in this fight.
Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev defeats Malcolm Gordon via KO1
Armen Petrosyan vs. AJ Dobson
Fight Odds: -215 Petrosyan vs. +175 Dobson
Weight Class: 185lb. (Middleweight)
Armen Petrosyan is the more refined, technical striker in this matchup, but AJ Dobson brings intensity, power, and aggression to the table in every fight. The middleweight division is replete with one-note fighters, and both of these guys have a one-note element to their game. For Petrosyan, he prefers to strike and rarely uses grappling or takedown attempts to bolster his offense or demonstrate a variety of threats. Dobson, on the other hand, will mix his martial arts a bit more and fall back onto his wrestling background, but he lacks the cardio to push a hard fifteen minute pace so he remains a one-note early finisher to this point in his career. Dobson absorbed a lot of heavy shots in his last fight against the finish-reluctant Jacob Malkoun, but if he finds himself in the same situations of fatigue against Petrosyan, I think he will be made to pay with big body kicks, powerful punching combinations, and destructive power uppercuts.
Prediction: Armen Petrosyan defeats AJ Dobson via TKO3/DEC
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Fight Odds: -160 Nurmagomedov vs. Omargadzhiev +140
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)
This fight is also something of a stinker and if it wasn’t regionally important and a favor to the Nurmagomedov family this fight may have never taken place. Abubakar has struggled in his reasonably short UFC tenure, earning a gritty striking-based decision over former UFC fighter Jared Gooden and losing a fight he was in control of via triangle choke against another UFC washout in David Zwada. Omargadzhiev is making his way to a new weight class after being thoroughly dominated by Caio Borralhio, and I am curious to see if he can make a better account of himself against a lower-level opponent at a more suitable weight class. I don’t have much faith in either of these fighters, but I trust Abubakar just a touch more as he is the experienced UFC welterweight of the two.
Prediction: Abubakar Nurmagomedov defeats Gadzhi Omargadzhiev via SDEC
Nikita Krylov vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Fight Odds: -180 Krylov vs, +145 Oezdemir
Weight Class: 205lb. (Light Heavyweight)
Light heavyweight is an inherently wild and unpredictable division which is what has always drawn me in. The chaotic nature of the contests combined with the constant air of finality that hangs over each exchange punctuates all that is great about fighting. This will be a sloppy brawl more often than not in which the first party to land a committed power strike may get an insurmountable advantage over their opponent. Krylov would project to have the better grappling chops of the two as well as the connective tissue in the wrestling department to facilitate grappling exchanges. That being said, the length, the hand speed, and the kicking dexterity of Krylov make me believe he can potentially end this fight in the first round via KO/TKO. Oezdemir has fought a solid brand of competition and maintained a good record but the signs of slowing down are visible in his game and he will be made to pay soon if not in this fight. I prefer Krylov’s many paths to victory against the limited Volkan Oezdemir.
Prediction: Nikita Krylov defeats Volkan Oezdemir via KO1
Caio Borralho vs. Makhmud Muradov
Fight Odds: -210 Borralho vs. +170 Muradov
Weight Class: 135lb. (Bantamweight)
Caio Borralho has been a money machine for me since he first emerged on the Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series. Muradov on the other hand finds himself in the unfamiliar role of betting underdog after being favored quite substantially in each of his first 4 UFC bouts. Gerald Meerschaert was able to land heavy shots, wear down Muradov (including with low blows and eye pokes), and eventually rip him to the ground to secure a submission finish. Borralho to his credit has shown excellent positional control from the back as well as an arsenal of sweeps, passes, submission attempts, and GNP opportunities. I think that he represents a poor style matchup for Muradov because he has a long-range kicking arsenal, a bouncing karate style, and excellent timing on his reactive takedowns and entires. The number one priority for Borralho has to be keeping an even, measured pace in this fight as he did slow down noticeably in the last couple of minutes against Petrosyan. I expect Caio to roll here.
Prediction: Caio Borralho defeats Makhmud Muradov via SUB2
Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad
Fight Odds: -145 Brady vs. +120 Muhammad
Weight Class: 135lb. (Bantamweight)
Sean Brady is one of the most talented if unheralded grapplers in the UFC. His black belt credentials have secured him submission wins and dominant victories over talented grapplers like Michael Cheisa, Court McGee, and Jake Matthews. Outside the octagon, he has been testing himself against the greatest grapplers on the planet including the likes of Craig Jones, multiple-time ADCC competitor. Belal Muhammad is an extremely gritty, seasoned veteran with a clear fight IQ and ring savvy that has allowed him to mature from a decision only laughing stock to a formidable welterweight contender. The problem for Muhammad by my estimation is the fact that he has been so often using his own advantage in wrestling to steer and shape fights that he will now be forced into a much more reactionary game plan and mindset. I expect Brady to walk Belal down with pressure, find an opportunity to level change, and run him straight on to the fence. From there I expect a hip scoop double leg off the fence and Sean Brady setting up shop in the top position and from the rear waist cinch along the fence line. If he is able to keep that up for 15 minutes or until he finds a choke, I believe he will be victorious.
Prediction: Sean Brady defeats Belal Muhammad via SUB2
Manon Fiorot vs. Katlyn Chookagain
Fight Odds: -220 Fiorot vs. +180 Chookagian
Weight Class: 205lb. (Light Heavyweight)
This is an extremely important fight for the future of the women’s flyweight division. After Talia Santos nearly unseated dominant champion Valentina Shevchenko earlier this year, the urgency with which flyweights are pursuing UFC title shots seems to have intensified. Chook is arguing that her five-fight win streak (if she is able to maintain it) should afford her another opportunity to pursue the championship belt. In her way stands a physical force in the women’s division named Manon Fiorot, a French woman with a background in kickboxing and bad intentions behind her strikes. The two women will have a similar lengthy frame and each prefers to strike with the hands but will mix in kicks to manage distance and maintain a desirable range with the opponent. Fiorot is a scary striker with solid volume by WMMA standards, but her grappling remains largely untested and her confidence in the grappling may be used against her in this fight. Katlyn Chookagain has been training in back to back wrestling style training camps with Gregor Gillespie and company on Long Island and she was recently awarded her Renzo Gracie BJJ Black Belt, so she may look to earn another stripe by scalping a highly touted prospect far from home. I am rooting for my fellow Renzo Gracie fighter but recognize she has her hands full in terms of technique and physicality. I am hoping her experience on the ground carries the day.
Prediction: Katlyn Chookagain defeats Manon Fiorot via SUB1
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Beneil Dariush
Fight Odds: -200 Gamrot vs. +165 Dariush
Weight Class: 185lb. (Middleweight)
Matuesz Gamrot is an extremely potent lightweight with an incredible resume of five-round fights, high-level wrestling/grappling exchanges, and moments of destructive finishing potential. Beneil Dariush embodies many of the same characteristics but without as much finesse or slickness. Dariush instead is a practical fighting machine, spending himself without limitation and willing to accept the consequences if his all-in approach comes up empty. I worry for Dariush in this spot because his chin has been buzzed and tested in several recent fights but Dariush was able to recover and use his takedowns and top control to mitigate damage. In this fight I expect Gamrot to have the superior pace in scrambling and more willingness to engage in high pace prolonged wrestling exchanges. If both men decide to swing in the center of the octagon, either man could fall, but I have to trust the power, durability, and cardio of Gamrot to carry the day and lead him to victory over his toughest opponent to date.
Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot defeats Beneil Dariush via KO3
Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley
Fight Odds: -280 Yan vs. +230 O’Malley
Weight Class: 135lb. (Bantamweight)
Petr Yan is essentially in no man’s land in the bantamweight division. He seemed to be well on his way to a dominant victory over Aljamain Sterling before he found himself disqualified and beltless. After dropping the rematch to Aljo in a competitive scrap, Yan was left without a clear next step in the division. Enter Sean O’Malley, a brash upstart in the division with a relatively easy run to the rankings, now being dropped squarely in the deep end of the pool. O’Malley wanted more money, so Dana wanted to see him swim with the sharks. On the one hand, worst-case scenario is Yan looks amazing, devastated O’Malley, and O’Malley has to go back to the hand-picked fights circuit for a while to rebuild his confidence. Perhaps the best case scenario for the UFC is that O’Malley loses a razor-close decision that validates his placement in the bout and also provides a stock boost that would be harder to get by beating a fighter ranked outside the top ten. I expect a motivated version of Petr Yan to turn up on O’Malley and cook him over three rounds.
Prediction: Petr Yan defeats Sean O’Malley via TKO3/DEC
Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw
Fight Odds: -170 Sterling vs. +140 Dillashaw
Weight Class: 135lb. (Bantamweight)
The top three fights on this bill are all extremely difficult to call for one reason or another. In this case, my personal biases reside heavily with the champion. Aljamain Sterling represents division three wrestling succeeding at the highest level, New York boys teaching people how to wrestle, and wrestlers and grapplers maximizing their effective use of techniques for optimal mixed martial arts competition. I would argue no fighter in the sport of mixed martial arts is a better back taker with more comprehensive threats than Aljamain Sterling. Sterling possesses a diverse and unorthodox submission arsenal, heavy GNP, and elite positional awareness. However, TJ Dillishaw is an extremely credentialed wrestler in his own right and his grappling and wrestling have held up under pressure on a few occasions in the UFC. The red flags for Dillashaw are glaring, as he has been getting hurt more over the course of his career, he is coming off major surgery, and he has been largely inactive over a five-year period due to failed drug tests and lingering injuries. If Dillashaw is able to turn back the clock in this fight, it will represent a determination and will to win that characterized Dillashaw’s entire run in the division.
Prediction: TJ Dillashaw defeats Aljamain Sterling via TKO5
Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev
Fight Odds: +150 Oliveira vs. -185 Makhachev
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)
Anyone who has great certainty about what will happen in this matchup is a better man or woman than I. Simply put, very few iterations of this contest will truly surprise me as I could see either fighter winning by either method of finish in the first three rounds of the fight. The ABC’s say always bet on cardio, which would make me lean ever so slightly toward the Islam Makhachev side. That being said, Oliveira has carved out a niche for himself as an extremely popular champion and a well-respected figure among his peers. Many fighters are predicting Oliveira to win this weekend because he has momentum on his side, he has high-level experience, he has paid his dues at all levels of the game, and he has been consistently showing improvements in his stand up and clinch game. Makhachev on the other hand has kept much of his skills, attributes, and damage threshold in the realm of the unknown by limiting exchanges, dictating exchanges, and dominating opponents from inside ties, overhooks, wrist control, and collar ties. If Islam is able to control Charles in the clinch, I believe it will neutralize a key part of Charles’s game and render him much less effective. If Oliveira is able to keep his base in the clinch and fire back strikes, I think the path to victory for Islam becomes much less clear and straightforward. I am forced to render an official prediction, but I do so with a pinch of salt in this case. Doubt Charles Oliveira at one’s own peril. Reluctantly, I have done so once again.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev defeats Charles Oliveira via SUB3