Lineup Leverage: NFL Week 1
Lineup Leverage – NFL Week 1
Injury Updates
It’s been over half of a year, but NFL Sundays are back!
This column will cover the latest Injury Updates, Matchups, Rankings, and Top Site Salaries for Week 1 of the NFL.
Last Updated: Sunday 11:54 AM EST
| Injury Update | Opportunity |
|---|---|
| Beanie Wells (Ari – RB) – According to Coach Whisenhunt, Wells may play a few snaps against St. Louis on Sunday, but according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that he is doubtful to play at all due to what is likely a mild sprain in his knee. | Tim Hightower (Ari – RB) – This leaves a wide-open door for Tim Hightower in Week 1. St. Louis is at the bottom of most Defensive lists heading into this season, and this should equate to at least 20 touches for Hightower. Hightower is by no means a beast, but I’m still not buying that Beanie Wells will be a feature back this year or even next. Warner is gone, which could lead to more dump-offs to Hightower, who is a solid 3rd down back. |
| Michael Bush (Oak – RB) – Michael Bush is listed as Questionable for Week 1 vs. the Titans. | Darren McFadden (Oak – RB) – I find it highly unlikely that Oakland rushes Michael Bush back for Week 1. A broken thumb usually requires 4-6 weeks to recover, and Bush injured his thumb just 2 weeks ago. The Titan’s Defense gave up 106.9 YPG in 2009, but McFadden has the potential to seize this opportunity. UPDATE: MICHAEL BUSH IS OFFICIALLY NOT PLAYING TODAY. |
| Montario Hardesty – (Cle – RB) – In case you were too busy catching up on re-runs of Hard Knocks the last week, rookie Montario Hardesty tore his ACL and is out for the season. | Jerome Harrison – He’s the #1 in Cleveland now. It only took a rookie-phenom, ACL tear and a painful decision hour special on ESPN. I don’t care what Josh Cribs says, Jerome is the King of Factory City now. He set the NFL single game rushing record a few months back. He’s playing the Bucs. I can describe their run defense with a word that rhymes with their team name. This could get ugly. |
| Dexter McCluster – (KC – RB/WR) – The rookie-phenom that torched Monte Kiffin’s Tennessee defense for 282 rushing yards, 42 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns less than a year ago, is doubtful for Week 1. Also, WR4 Jerheme Urban has been placed on IR. | Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers – (KC – RB/WR) – If you were unsure about Jamaal Charles or Dwayne Bowe, you have no worries for week 1 anymore. This also provides Chambers the opportunity to be a deep sleeper for Week 1. |
Other Notable Injury Updates:
- Laurence Maroney (NE – RB) – With one running back not active week 1, the infamous New England committee shrinks to a size that actually makes Fred Taylor a valuable RB play this week. Sammy Morris has also had a rough offseason. Cincy is tough, but Fred Taylor should be cheap.
- Aaron Hernandez (NE – TE) – Sorry Gronkowski fanboys, your sleeper pick has already failed. With Hernandez locked and loaded for Week 1 and Alge Crumpler also good to play, if he’s not too busy daydreaming about the pre-game cheeseburgers the J-E-T-S get to eat (he’s a little hefty …) You were dumb for thinking a Tight End could ever hold value in New England anyways.
- Michael Jenkins (Atl – WR) – Ruled out for Week 1. Give a notch up to Roddy White, Tony Gonzo and Harry Douglas
Matchups
I use a statistic algorithm to constantly update and rank active NFL Run, Pass and Total Defenses in order to judge weekly matchups. Based on my rankings headed into this season, here are some defensive areas to target headed into Week 1:
| Defenses | Notes |
|---|---|
| Pass D – Titans, Seahawks, Lions, Rams, Jaguars | Between the 2009 regular season and the 2010 preseason, these Pass Defenses gave up anywhere from 228-265 passing YPG. Bump up any QBs, WRs, or TEs in these matchups. |
| Run D – Colts, Bills, Broncos, Bucs, Raiders | Each of these rush D’s allowed at least 110 rush YPG in 2009 as well as in the 2010 preseason, but there were other teams that gave that up. These 5 made the bottom of the rankings not only for their rush yards but also for the amount of rush TDs they have given up. Use your RBs confidently against these 5 defenses. |
A Valuable Lineup
| Position | Player | FanDuel Price/Max Pos. Price | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Alex Smith | $7,100/$9,800 | Seahawks Pass Defense. |
| RB | Tim Hightower | $5,200/$9,900 | Beanie Wells is out. The Rams de…you know what?!? Just start him already. |
| RB | Jerome Harrison | $6,100/$9,900 | Everything mentioned above plus the fact that Eric Mangini verbally praised J-Hare this week. Normally, the ManGenius does not like to give praise. |
| WR | Jabar Gaffney | $5,400/$7,500 | Until Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker overtake him, he is the go to guy in Denver. |
| WR | Louis Murphy | $4,900/$7,500 | Chaz Schiliens is out indefinitely and Heyward-Bey may have to live three lives to fully earn his first-round contract. Murphy and Zach Miller are the go-to guys through the air in Oakland. |
| WR | Mike Williams (TB) | $5,200/$7,500 | Is it just me, or does this guy have ‘star’ written all over him? |
| TE | John Carlson | $5,200/$6,600 | Exit TJ, Enter Carlson. |
| K | Ryan Succopp | $5,300/$6,200 | Look at his 2nd half of last season (ty J-Charl…) and then factor in a new and offensive minded coach along with Thomas Jones, McCluster, and new (not going to say improved quite yet) offensive line. |
| D | Panthers | $5,700/$6,500 | I LOVE their D for value this year. Even more for Week 1 against Eli and the Giants when you know that their highest fantasy points game last season was against the G-Men. They also finished off last season heroically on defense…couple that with a stellar preseason effort and this is the defensive sleeper pick this season. |