LoL DFS: AlphaDraft - Friday, February 12th
I’m adopting a different article format today, going more into the statistics of a single player from each matchup, and including more statistics overall. The chosen player from each matchup will always be a good pick, but not necessarily the best; the idea is to give my readers a deeper pool of knowledge over time.
Many of the statistics I use are weighted slightly in the favor of recent games, which in my opinion makes them more meaningful, but also makes them slightly different than statistics you may see elsewhere.
I have a lot less to say about who’s going to win games today than normal; every matchup is a 60/40 at best, and realistically no one really knows who’s actually going to win these games, so instead I’m going to focus on the teams strengths and win conditions, and what will likely happen to make either team win.
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Origen (5-4) vs Team Vitality (6-3)
My Odds: 50/50
Pinnacle Odds: 53/47 OG
Points Scored Ranks: OG- 3, VIT- 8
Points Given Up Ranks: OG- 5, VIT- 7
Notable Picks: Zven ($8100), Mithy ($7500), Cabochard ($7500)
While people may see VIT favored here due to their win against G2, it should be noted that G2 did secure an early lead, and basically lost the game because of pick/ban. Somehow VIT got Gangplank, Corki, AND Fiora (Look for analyst job postings on G2s website), and this led to the win more than anything else. The game was more about G2 exposing flaws than VIT outplaying, so it doesn’t reflect as much on this matchup as it would otherwise. If VIT wins the game, I think it will be on the back of superior analytics/coaching. VIT plays a very slow, macro-focused game, often choosing scaling compositions and opting against skirmishing. If VIT wins pick/ban and/or stalls the game they have a good chance of winning.
OG have had middling performances, and they just lost their coach, but it feels like they’ve had upward momentum since the split began. For OG to win the game they need early aggression. OG has had weak analytics/coaching for some time now, and losing their head coach was (for now at least) another step in the wrong direction. OG has a much stronger bot lane, stronger jungler, and likely a stronger mid lane as well. A single well-timed gank on either mid or bot would start snowballing the game in OGs favor, which could easily lead to a win even through macro-level misplays.
Zven (Niels) is the clear best fantasy pick from OG, and has been since their time in the challenger series. With an incredible 37% of OGs damage (#1 in region), 25% of OGs gold (#1 in region), 321 EGPM (#1 in region), and 70% kill participation Zven is very clearly the primary carry for OG, with PowerOfEvil taking a more supporting role. In fantasy Zven has been one of the most desirable picks in Europe since the summer 2015 season, taking home an average of 30 points per win this season, a stunning 26% more than the next best member of OG (Amazing at 23.9). Currently third in his position in fantasy scoring overall and while winning, Zven will likely always be the clear choice from OG, scoring the most points of his team in 6 of OGs first 9 games this split.
Amazing and Mithy are the other solid picks from OG, Amazing because of his salary efficiency, and Mithy because he’s one of the better fantasy supports, while OG as a whole is below-average in the fantasy department. VIT have not had clear fantasy trends recently, although Cabochard is still the most outstanding pick, and this will be further magnified by OGs high DvP for enemy top laners (and soaZs occasionally weak play).
Unicorns of Love (6-3) vs Fnatic (6-3)
My Odds: 50/50
Pinnacle Odds: 52/48 FNC
Points Scored Ranks: UOL- 1, FNC- 7
Points Given Up Ranks: UOL-1, FNC- 6
Notable Picks: Steeelback ($7900), Fox ($8000), Febiven ($8100), Spirit ($7900), UOL Team ($3600), FNC
Team ($3600)
I don’t have much insight into who will win this game, but if you’ve got a strong feeling one way or the other it’s a good game to pick players from, as it will likely be very bloody. All UOL games seem to be bloodbaths now, and FNC have done nothing to suggest that trend is likely to change.UOL vs FNC is a very strange match because neither team has crystal-clear strengths or weaknesses. Some games FNC has very bad macro play, some games it’s excellent. Spirit was terrible in a few games and brilliant in a few. I can hardly get a feel for UOLs style at all; their jungler keeps changing, and they appear to pick comfort champions and play soloq-ish most of the time. It’s hard for me to predict almost anything that will happen, outside of the fact that one of these two teams will get a ton of kills. This is the game to heavily invest in for GPPs.
Steeelback has come a long way from being heckled while on FNC in spring 2015. During 2016 he has 33% of UOLs damage (#4 in region), 291 EGPM (#4 in region), and a 44% first blood participation rate. He has the best overall fantasy performance of any ADC in Europe, and the fourth best when winning. While he doesn’t have a substantial lead over Fox (Fox has actually had the most points in more UOL games this season) Steeelback is a much more consistent pick, ideal for cash games. Fox and Vizicsacsi are also solid picks from UOL, although both are riskier picks than Steeelback.
FNC members have not held to any strong trends this split, and it’s honestly hard to say anything about them, aside from the fact that they score poorly overall. Klaj seems like an improvement over Noxiak (Noxiak was fantasy poison), but it’s hard to rank the remaining members in any meaningful way. Both Rekkles and Febiven have low point ceilings, so FNC is a better splash team for GPP rosters. Whichever team wins this game will likely have the most team points of the day, as I can easily see this going to 2 or 3 barons as neither team is particularly good at closing, and both have games with huge numbers of objectives.
H2K (8-1) vs G2 Esports (7-2)
My Odds: 60/40 H2K
Pinnacle Odds: 52/48 H2K
Points Scored Ranks: H2K- 4, G2- 6
Points Given Up Ranks: H2K- 9, G2- 3
Notable Picks: Jankos ($7900), Odoamne ($8100)
This should be a roughly 35~40 minute win for H2K. G2 rely too much on stomping lanes to win the game, and the only lane they’re likely to stomp here is mid, which is made much less likely by Jankos’ preference for keeping Selfie safe. It’s unlikely H2K will take an early lead through map pressure (because Jankos will need to guard Selfie from Perkz), but H2K should play the early game smart enough to get into the midgame roughly even on gold, at which point their superior teamplay will win them the game. If Trick can start the snowball early (Most likely on Perkz) G2 can win the game, but they’re unlikely to win if the gold is even at 20 minutes.
I think both of these teams players’ are overcosted, and this matchup should be avoided for cash games.If you’re going to pick someone though, pick Jankos, the first blood king. While his FBP has dropped to 67% this split (Still best in the league for active players with more than one game), Jankos is undoubtedly the most aggressive early game jungler in the EU LCS. With 19% of H2Ks damage (#2 for junglers), 76% KP (#2 for junglers), and 230 EGPM (#3 for junglers), Jankos and Trick are the two clear contenders for the title of “Best EU Fantasy Jungler.”
While I don’t recommend picking anyone from this game, Odoamne is another viable pick from H2K, as his overall performance is strong, and he’s pretty likely to win his lane. If you believe in G2, go for Trick and Perkz, both contenders for best in their position for fantasy performance.
Elements (3-6) vs ROCCAT (1-8)
My Odds: 55/45 EL
Pinnacle Odds: 50/50 barely favoring EL
Points Scored Ranks: EL- 2, ROC- 9
Points Given Up Ranks: EL- 2, ROC- 8
Notable Picks: MrRallez ($7600), Steve ($7400), Betsy ($7600), Elements Team ($3500)
This is the best game of the day to pick from, both for cash and GPP. Both teams’ players are exceptionally undercosted.
What’s going to happen in this game? I won’t pretend to know; both teams are uncoordinated and ROC is the most unpredictable team in the league. It’s almost certain one of these teams will score an incredible number of points though, and the losing team will likely score highly as well. For reference, see the DIG vs FOX game from last week, in which all players were cheap, and everyone ended up scoring reasonably well.
While Betsy is not the best pick from this game, he’s the player whose statistics I’d like to take a closer look at. Betsy has an astonishing 34% of his teams damage (#3 in region), 77% KP (#6 in region), and he does this with only 23% of his teams gold. Betsy has been the highest scoring player on ROC in 67% of his games this season, and has a 25% higher score than the next member of ROC when winning. He’s clearly the best fantasy pick from ROC, unless something substantial changes.
The best pick for this particular game though is MrRallez, the clear fantasy leader of EL. Since EL is favored to win, Rallez should be a better pick than Betsy, although both could score well. Steve is the next best pick from EL, as he scores astonishingly well in wins (#1 in region).
Splyce (2-7) vs Giants (1-8)
My Odds: 60/40 SPY
Pinnacle Odds: 66/34 SPY
Points Scored Ranks: SPY- 5, GIA- 10
Points Given Up Ranks: SPY- 10, GIA- 4
Notable Picks: Sencux (7500$)
Sencux is $7500?
$7500? Pick Sencux. Trust me, just do it.
As for the game itself, it’s hard to predict since neither team is good, but SPY does have some degree of consistency, and I definitely expect Sencux to crush the mid lane. I don’t think this will be a terribly bloody game, but both sides are so absurdly cheap you can’t afford to ignore it for cash games. Does today’s victory mean there is any hope for GIA? Not really. Sencux is #1 in the entire region in fantasy points when winning (Over 36 per game!), is #6 in the region in percentage of teams’ damage (32%), and has a shocking 90% KP (#1 in region). You guys remember when he got that solo quadra kill? Yeah, he’s $7500 in a winning matchup for some reason. Pick Sencux. In everything.