LoL DFS: AlphaDraft - Saturday
Below is a game-by-game breakdown of Saturday’s NA League of Legends slate.
Pricing is for AlphaDraft.
Team Liquid (3-3) vs Dignitas (2-4)
My Odds: 65/35 favoring TL
Pinnacle Odds: 1.512/2.590 favoring TL
Notable Picks: Shiphtur ($7500), Piglet ($8300), Fenix ($8200), Dardoch ($8000)
This is a fairly hard game to call; TL is clearly better at the moment (DIG lost to TIP, TL beat TIP, both in Week 3), but TL is an inconsistent team, and DIG have substantial upset potential. Neither team is especially coordinated in the mid to late game, so the winner will likely be decided by a teamfight around 20 minutes, or a Dignitoss at Baron.
More important than who wins is the fact that Dignitas tend to have low-kill games, and don’t give up many kills in either wins or losses. Liquid tend to give up a lot, even when winning, but I expect this to be a medium to low kill game overall. It’s worth pointing out that TL gives up the most points of any team when losing, so a DIG stack will be great for GPPs if they manage to upset.
Dardoch is the best cash pick here, and either Piglet or Fenix will blow up for GPPs if TL wins, but probably not both of them (All 3 are best in position for average AD points per game). Shiphtur is a great punt for cash games if you need a mid; he’s the 4th best mid overall in AD points, and the best in games when winning. The only problem with Shiphtur is his lane opponent is Fenix who very rarely loses, and TL has a very low DvP for enemy mid laners.
Cloud9 (3-3) vs Renegades (1-5)
My Odds: 75/25 strongly favoring C9
Pinnacle Odds: 1.321/3.44 favoring C9
Notable Picks: Jensen ($7800), Rush ($7800), Balls ($7300), Hai ($7200)
Things have not been going well for REN. They have superstar Freeze back from visa prison, but his support Remi just stepped down and he’s out of practice with the team. C9 are starting Hai, which basically means Freeze needs to put the entire game on his back or C9 will win for sure, as they have an advantage in every position except ADC, and much better shotcalling.
All of C9 are great picks for cash on Saturday, because even if REN upset somehow they will still give up a lot of points. Rush is clearly the best fantasy pick from C9, although he’s still only 7th best in his position. Jensen, Balls, and Hai are all on the low end of their positions, but they’re very cheap and magnified by the fact that REN gives up a lot of points. Renegades highest DvP when losing is for top lane (21% higher than average for a losing team), so Balls should be a better pick than normal. Sneaky has been very underwhelming for fantasy this season, but keep in mind he was clearly the best fantasy player on C9 for all of 2015.
Pass on this game for GPPs.
Counter Logic Gaming (4-2) vs Immortals (6-0)
My Odds: 65/35 favoring IMT
Pinnacle Odds: 1.434/2.85 favoring IMT
Notable Picks: Adrian ($7700), Huhi ($7700), Aphromoo ($7200)
This game is a lot more complicated than the IMT stomp most people expect. While it’s certainly true that IMT is the better team, CLG has substantial upset potential. All of IMTs games have been early snowballs, aside from their game vs TSM which was moreso TSM losing with a baron throw than IMT winning. CLG is historically very strong at the early game, which will limit IMTs snowball potential and give CLG a good chance to take a win.
If IMT take an early lead they will win an exceptionally bloody game, which should make all members good picks for cash games, especially Adrian, who is best in his position overall. IMT teamfight a lot so there isn’t as much disparity in position as you may expect; Wildturtle only gets 26% more points than Huni, IMT’s best and worst fantasy players respectively. CLGs highest DvP when losing is for mid lane (12% higher than average), so Pobelter may be a better pick than WildTurtle.
CLG will be the more interesting picks though, as I’d expect them to score reasonably well for cash games even in a loss, and they have the best upset value of any team on Saturday. Huhi is criminally cheap, given that he’s the 3rd best mid overall, and 4th best when winning (Better than Pobelter when winning by 15%). Aphromoo has been the best NA support for fantasy historically, and while he’s slumping this year he’s still the 3rd best support both overall and when winning. Members of CLG are the best punts on Saturday, and should be heavily played in GPPs, as a CLG upset will make it very likely a CLG stack wins the Swag Jar.
TSM (3-3) vs Echo Fox (1-5)
My Odds: 85/15 strongly favoring TSM
Pinnacle Odds: 1.309/3.520 favoring tsm
Notable Picks: Bjergsen ($7900), Doublelift ($7900)
TSM has actually been doing better than their record indicates; their loss to CLG can be mostly attributed to lack of preparation, and their loss to IMT is exclusively because of one bad Baron call. TSM is the only team to maintain a lead over IMT for the majority of the game. I said before the split started that TSM had the best roster in the west, and I still feel that way. With FOX in visa prison I don’t think they have much hope; FOX can’t win the game, but TSM could lose it if they try really hard.
This is likely to be a medium to low kill game, as FOX gives up very few points, and TSM is below average in fantasy scoring. The only exceptional pick is Bjergsen who has been the clear fantasy leader on TSM this split, reinforced by FOXs highest DvP being to enemy mid laners (Although it’s still 12% lower than average). Doublelift was the most consistent fantasy player of 2015 though, so he shouldn’t be counted out because of a few bad games.
NRG Esports (4-2) vs Team Impulse (3-3)
My Odds: 85/15 strongly favoring NRG
Pinnacle Odds: 1.396/3.010 favoring NRG
Notable Picks: Impact ($7900), Altec ($8200)
I don’t know if there’s TIP hype after their 3-1 performance the last 2 weeks, but if there is I’m not buying it. TIP has received some substantial luck with poor performances from their opponents and from being underestimated, but that doesn’t mean they’re likely to upset real teams. NRG is likely to end the split top 3 and TIP is effectively a ranked 5’s team; the upset here is very unlikely.
By far the best pick here is Impact who scores the most points of anyone on NRG when winning, and also the best points of all top laners in NA when winning. Altec scores the most points of anyone on NRG overall, and clocks in fourth in his position overall, and third when winning. GBM and KonKwon are fine picks, but we’re playing DFES and not Hearts, so avoid NRGs jungler.