LoL DFS: AlphaDraft - Saturday, February 13th
Below is a game-by-game breakdown of Saturday’s NA League of Legends slate.
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Echo Fox (1-7) vs Renegades (1-7)
My Odds: 60/40 REN
Pinnacle Odds: 56/44 REN
Points Scored Ranks: FOX- 8, REN- 1
Points Given Up Ranks: FOX- 9, REN- 1
Notable Picks: Freeze ($7600), Keith/LOD ($7400), Alexich ($7300), Crumbz ($7000), Renegades Team ($3500)
This is a hard game to predict precisely since both teams are uncoordinated and sloppy, but I think REN has a substantial advantage. Look at last week’s games against TSM- FOX put up a fight but never took a lead, and was down by 5k for much of the game. TSM failed to close, but FOX was never ‘winning.’ REN on the other hand was winning for much of the game and only threw later on; their performance was much more impressive, and I think REN is a better team overall.
At the time of this writing it’s unclear who will be playing for FOX; Froggen has been cleared to play in NA, but it hasn’t been officially announced that he’s starting. This shouldn’t make too much of a difference though, as Froggen would be out of practice with the team.
Regardless of who wins, this will be a very bloody game.
Freeze is my favorite player for fantasy in the history of LoL. For whatever reason Freeze always ends up on mediocre teams, but often manages to hard-carry them to the middle of the standings almost by himself. He’s one of the most mechanically talented players in the west, and a true superstar ADC, second only to Forgiven the god. His actual statistics are a bit wonky at the moment because he was out for much of the split, but he’s currently at 38% of RENs damage (#2 in region), 84% KP (#3 in region), and 285 EGPM (#9 in region; amazing for a player who’s lost most games).
Freeze is the best pick on AlphaDraft on Saturday by far, like Sencux on Friday expect to see him on every cash roster. Alexich and Crumbz are also strong picks from REN, as they both score well overall and are undercosted on the day. If FOX manage the upset you’re going to want their ADC and Mid, although it’s currently unclear who will be playing in either position… both Froggen and Keith have a history of fantasy dominance, so strongly consider either of them that end up starting.
NRG Esports (5-3) vs Counter Logic Gaming (5-3)
My Odds: 60/40 CLG
Pinnacle Odds: 56/44 CLG
Points Scored Ranks: NRG- 4, CLG- 7
Points Given Up Ranks: NRG- 3, CLG- 5
Notable Picks: Stixxay ($8100), Huhi ($8000), Darshan ($7700), Counter Logic Gaming Team ($3600)
While these teams have similar records, CLG has generally been dignified in their losses, while NRG has looked atrocious recently, even when winning. NRG now looks like a middle of the pack team, not a leader, and I think CLG has a substantial advantage here. Looking at their recent games, CLG stood a real chance vs IMT, while NRG crumbled against both C9 and TIP. When CLG played TIP they closed the game cleanly.
I don’t think this will be a very bloody game overall; NRG scores well in wins, but very poorly in losses. CLG players should score reasonably well regardless, but NRG players are a substantial risk only appropriate for GPPs.
Stixxay and Huhi are equally good picks, although be aware that usually one of them does exceptionally well and the other doesn’t, so they may not be the best picks for cash games. Darshan and Xmithie should be more reliable picks, and Aphromoo as always is one of the best supports in NA for fantasy. If you believe in NRG then nothing’s changed; Impact is the best pick (#2 in position overall, #1 when winning), and Altec is runner up.
Cloud9 (5-3) vs Liquid (4-4)
My Odds: 55/45 C9
Pinnacle Odds: 55/45 C9
Points Scored Ranks: C9- 10, TL- 2
Points Given Up Ranks: C9- 7, TL- 4
Notable Picks: Sneaky ($7800), Jensen ($7900), Rush ($7800), Piglet ($8000), Dardoch ($8000), Fenix ($7800), Cloud9 Team ($3600)
This is an odd game to predict, as C9 and TL have totally different styles. TL has been the bloodiest team of the NA LCS this split, and C9 has been the opposite, scoring the worst of any team, and not giving up many points in losses. TL is more focused on the early-game and winning lanes, C9 is almost exclusively focused on objectives and macro-level play.
It’s almost like a great basketball team and a great Hockey team facing off in a game of American Football. These teams operate on different axes of play, and it’s hard to know which will come out on top, and whose assets will be more valuable. TL definitely has an advantage in all lanes, but C9 has a clear advantage in shotcalling and lategame decision making. If TL wins the early game then the game should end very bloody, while if C9 hold early the game may end with a score of 6-0.
Sneaky has snuck back up on the fantasy standings, and for the first time in the split is the most attractive fantasy player on his team. The unquestioned best fantasy pick of C9 in 2015, Sneaky puts out 27% of his teams damage and participates in 69% of C9s kills with only 22% of his teams gold (lowest in position). Sneaky has historically been a player who can perform well without many resources and it seems he’s finally returned to that form.
Jensen and Rush are the other two clear picks from C9, although Rush has clearly fallen to #3 on his team, so the days of ignoring C9s carries may be over. If you expect TL to win the obvious picks remain Piglet, Dardoch, and Fenix, in that order. Piglet is the best overall fantasy performer in the region, and Dardoch has been the second best overall performer in his position. Fenix has been slumping slightly in fantasy performance, but he maintains an 80% kill participation with a CSD of 5 @ 10 minutes.
Team Impulse (3-5) vs TSM (5-3)
My Odds: 75/25 TSM
Pinnacle Odds: 68/32 TSM
Points Scored Ranks: TIP- 6, TSM- 5
Points Given Up Ranks: TIP- 6, TSM- 2
Notable Picks: Bjergsen ($8400), Doublelift ($8300), Hauntzer ($7900), Procxin ($6900), TSM Team ($3800)
I finally must concede that TSM is not close to what I expected them to be. Their actual performance has been substantially worse than 5-3 suggests, but I think they have a large ceiling for improvement in the future. TSM seem to be having issues with team synergy, coaching, and analytics, which is really no surprise given that they’ve had weak analytics and coaching historically. The most pressing issue though is team synergy and shotcalling; TSM seems unable to win clean games, and gives up a tremendous number of points when winning, resulting in their #2 rank in points given up.
That all being said, TIP is bad and TSM will probably win. I expect the game to be reasonably bloody.
While Doublelift has had an underwhelming split for fantasy performance, everyone should remember that he was the most consistently good fantasy player in the west in 2015. He always seemed to score well, even in losses, and with his recent performance going absolutely ham bananas to 58 AlphaDraft points he’s solidly over the slump. Doublelift delivers an impressive 32% of TSMs damage (#4 in region), but only participates in 69% of kills (#5 in position, he likes to farm a bit too much), and does so on 297 EGPM (#2 in position, #3 in region).
Bjergsen is a slightly more efficient pick than DL today, and Hauntzer is a fantastic pick for GPPs, but may be too volatile for cash. I don’t think anyone on TIP will be a good pick, but it should be known that
Procxin is both the best fantasy pick on his team, and the third best overall performing jungler, behind only Dardoch and Reignover (Very impressive given his losing record).
Immortals (8-0) vs Team Dignitas (3-5)
My Odds: 85/15 IMT
Pinnacle Odds: 80/20 IMT
Points Scored Ranks: IMT- 9, DIG- 3
Points Given Up Ranks: IMT- 10, DIG- 8
Notable Picks: Reignover ($8200), Wildturtle ($8600), Adrian ($7800)
IMT wins a medium-kill game. Not sure what else there is to say, IMT don’t necessarily score all that well when winning (Hence their low rank in scoring), but they’re the most consistent picks in the region. Have some IMT on your cash lineups.
Reignover is perhaps the best fantasy player in the west. Last year he was on FNC who were clearly the best fantasy team in the spring, and he found his way to the semifinals of Worlds, often being called FNCs best player. This split he’s participated in 100% of first bloods, is the best overall fantasy jungler in NA, is the most consistent pick in NA, and is a strong contender for best overall play in NA.
Wildturtle and Adrian are also great picks from IMT, Turtle because of his high point ceiling, and Adrian because he’s the best overall pick in the support position. Huni has been the least reliable pick from IMT this split (Common amongst top laners, because of split pushing and lacking early-game KP), and Pobelter has been quite strong, but with a lower ceiling than Turtle. Shiphtur is the best fantasy pick on DIG in general, but I can’t recommend picking anyone from DIG under any circumstances, aside from contrarian GPP lineups