LoL DFS: AlphaDraft - Sunday, February 7th

by Christopher Michael Thomas (chrismikethomas) Last Updated 2016-02-09 17:42:39

Below is a game-by-game breakdown of Sunday’s NA League of Legends slate.

Pricing is for AlphaDraft.

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Immortals (7-0) vs Team Liquid (4-3)

My Odds: 75/25 strongly favoring IMT
Pinnacle Odds: 73/27 favoring IMT
Notable Picks: Reignover ($8100), Adrian ($7700), Smoothie/Matt ($7200)

This game is much harder to call than the odds suggest.

IMT are the stronger team, but they’ve shown substantial weakness in three of their seven games. They only beat TSM because TSM threw at Baron, they probably deserved to lose to CLG (The Zilean pick was very good, but CLG got very overconfident and made several bad plays), and they were behind NRG for much of that game. I don’t think IMT are as good as 7-0 suggests, and at some point their faults are going to catch up with them. The constant Soraka/Janna picks are a good example; it seems to me that they have macro weaknesses, but their opponents are failing to exploit them due to lacking analytics/coaching/macro play.

TL actually looked great today. I’ve always been hard on TL, but their new roster is starting to impress me; Dardoch is the real deal. TLs biggest weakness seems to be a Bard ban, but we don’t even have the sample size to say that yet. They don’t have the best mid-game shotcalling, but it’s clearly been improving. Shockingly they may be a top 3 contender.
One thing I’m very confident in predicting is that this game will be bloody. Reignover and Adrian are the two most consistent picks on IMT, while WildTurtle has the most upside, and Huni is the most likely to flop for fantasy. TL has a very low DvP for mid laners when they win, so Pobelter should be worse than normal. IMT has no clear DvP trends, but Smoothie should be a good punt since he’s so cheap. Dardoch and Piglet are the two best picks from TL if you expect them to upset, but they’re also the two most expensive players, so a cheap punt like Matt may be better for cash games.

Cloud9 (4-3) vs NRG Esports (5-2)

My Odds: 55/45 favoring NRG
Pinnacle Odds: 59/41 favoring NRG
Notable Picks: Impact ($7900), Altec ($8300), All C9 Players, C9 Team ($3400)

I’ve been expecting NRG to finish top 3, but todays game was a depressing clownfiesta. They made so many mistakes I don’t even know where to begin- macro play, item choices, positioning, or vision. I think they got super overconfident from pick/ban (They won pick/ban by a LOT), but their play was unacceptable. NRG is a team like IMT whose strengths largely lie in individual players mechanics rather than macro strategy, and they’re about to play against NA’s best macro-focused team.

All of C9 is underpriced on AlphaDraft, so any of them are reasonable picks for cash. Rush and Jensen are the strongest cash picks, Balls is the riskiest, but regardless of what you choose you should have at least one C9 member on your cash lineups. NRG give up a lot of points to every position, especially top and support. For NRG, the standard picks of Impact and Altec still apply. C9 does not have clear DvP trends yet, and no one else on NRG really stands out. I should point out that Moon had seemed weak fantasy-wise for most of the split, but that seems to be changing, so don’t count him out entirely.

The C9 team should be a strong cash pick, because even when they lose they tend to have reasonable objective control.

Renegades (1-6) vs TSM (4-3)

My Odds: 85/15 favoring TSM
Pinnacle Odds: 74/26 favoring TSM
Notable Picks: Bjergsen ($8100), Doublelift ($8000), Svenskeren ($7500)

Long story short, REN is in serious trouble. TSM has shown more weaknesses than I ever would have expected, but even still I can’t see REN winning this game. People may look at the scoreboard from TSM vs FOX and assume the game was ‘close,’ but actually TSM was ahead by 5k for most of the game. Did TSM almost throw against FOX? Yes, but the point is they recovered from it and played to their win conditions. REN is looking like the worst team in the NA LCS, sadly.

There’s a strange interaction of trends here- REN give up a lot of points, but TSM are all eighth in their position or worse when winning. I think all of TSM are safe cash picks except Hauntzer, who has been perhaps the most inconsistent fantasy player in the NA LCS this split. Bjergsen and Doublelift have the most upside; Bjergsen performs the best overall, but REN have a high DvP for enemy ADCs, so either are fine, while Svenskeren is the best budget pick. I can’t recommend picking anyone on Renegades.

Avoid this game for GPPs.

Team Impulse (3-4) vs Counter Logic Gaming (4-3)

My Odds: 75/25 favoring CLG
Pinnacle Odds: 70/30 favoring CLG
Notable Picks: Huhi ($8200), Xmithie ($7700), Aphromoo ($7500), Procxin ($7200)

I don’t know what to think about TIP. My gut tells me that they’re not very good and they keep getting lucky, but perhaps I’m not giving them enough credit. Regardless, CLG is clearly the better team, even after throwing the game today vs IMT, which I think CLG deserved to win. CLG is not a consistent team at the moment though; they throw their early game leads, and sometimes make highly questionable calls in the midgame (and we saw TIP almost win vs NRG off the back of similar mistakes). Could TIP win? Sure, but I don’t think it’s likely.

Huhi is the best pick from CLG, both because he performs the best on CLG overall, and because TIP have their highest DvP for enemy mid laners. Xmithie and Aphromoo are solid picks as always, and Stixxay is perfectly reasonable for $8100. Darshan has become a liability due to his proclivity for split pushing, but he should still have some coverage in GPPs. If you’re going to punt a TIP member, make it Procxin; CLG’s highest DvP is for enemy junglers, and Procxin is already TIPs most impressive player from a fantasy perspective. Mash and Feng could also be solid picks, but I doubt their ability to win their lanes, which would limit their scoring potential.

Team Dignitas (2-5) vs Echo Fox (1-6)

My Odds: 60/40 favoring DIG
Pinnacle Odds: 59/41 favoring DIG
Notable Picks: Shiphtur ($7700), Kirei ($7300), Keith ($7200), DIG Team ($3500)

I’m gonna be straight with you – I have no idea what’s going to happen in this game. No one does.

On one hand, both teams have low overall DvP, and tend to both give up and score very few points. However, both teams are bad and uncoordinated, which historically has resulted in the most spectacular bloodbaths the LCS has seen (see: Copenhagen Wolves in Spring 2015). It wouldn’t surprise me for either team to win, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the ending scoreboard was either 8-1 or 25-20. This is play at your own risk territory. FOX almost upset TSM today, so they can clearly catch when other teams throw. I expect DIG to win, but I am not confident at all in that prediction.

What I am confident in is who should be picked on these teams: Shiphtur and Keith. Shiphtur is clearly the best fantasy pick on DIG, and he keeps doing bonkers stuff like solo killing Fenix with Dardoch in the wings. At $7700 he is the single best value pick of the day, and I expect to see him in EVERY cash lineup (FOXs highest DvP is to enemy mid laners, because their substitute mid is not very strong). Kirei, Apollo, and Kiwikid are all defensible picks, but you will regret not picking Shiphtur. The DIG team is a strong pick because they’re favored winners, they’re cheap at $3500, and the game could be a 7 Dragon 4 Baron exercise in tedium.