LoL DFS: AlphaDraft - Thursday, February 11th
I’m introducing some new metrics this week. Ranks indicating how many points teams tend to score and give up. Together these ranks should give you a reasonable idea of how bloody a game will be, for example UOL is #1 in both points scored and points given up, so any game involving UOL is likely to be a bloodbath.
These metrics are calculated independent of how many games a team has won, which explains EL and G2’s ranks. Overall G2 has scored quite well because they’ve been winning games, but they scored very poorly in the single game they lost, indicating that they might not always score exceptionally well. EL has scored worse overall, but they score higher than any other team when winning, and much better than G2 when losing, so they have a higher overall rank.
Pricing is for AlphaDraft.
Unicorns of Love (6-2) vs H2K (7-1)
My Odds: 70/30 favoring H2K
Pinnacle Odds: 63/37 favoring H2K
Points Scored Ranks: UOL- 1, H2K- 4
Points Given Up Ranks: UOL- 1, H2K- 9
Notable Picks: Forgiven ($8400), Jankos ($7800), Fox ($7700), H2K Team ($3700)
UOL has been outperforming expectations, but they don’t have any substantial advantages over H2K outside of the mid lane. Selfie will be outmatched by Fox, however H2Ks bottom and top lanes will clearly outmatch UOL, and I expect H2K to have better team coordination and lategame shotcalling; things UOL has been lacking. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UOL upset this, but I think H2K is favored by a substantial margin.
Because H2K is favored this should be a fairly bloody game; UOL gives up more points than any other team and H2K scores reasonably well.
Forgiven is still the clear best pick on H2K for a variety of reasons (Winning lane matchup, best mechanics in the region, exceptional KP%), but Jankos may be a better pick if you’re tight on salary. Selfie has been outperforming expectations for fantasy, but he hasn’t actually been playing as well as people think, and may simply get dumpstered at some point. If you’re going to pick one of the Unicorns, pick Fox- he’s only a hairs width from being the best fantasy performer on his team, and he’s the only person with an expected winning lane matchup.
Fnatic (5-3) vs Elements (3-5)
My Odds: 75/25 favoring FNC
Pinnacle Odds: 73/27 favoring FNC
Points Scored Ranks: FNC- 7, EL- 2
Points Given Up Ranks: FNC- 6, EL- 2
Notable Picks: Febiven ($8100), Spirit ($7800), Gamsu ($7700), MrRallez ($7500), FNC Team ($3800)
This match is pretty straightforward- FNC is a much better team, but they’re inconsistent and may throw. FNC will also be playing their first game with competitive rookie Klaj, although I doubt that will make them play much worse, since Noxiak wasn’t carrying his weight. I don’t see EL winning the game, but FNC may possibly lose it.
No matter what happens this should be a fairly bloody game. EL games are almost always bloody in one direction or the other, and FNC should be less coordinated with a new member and hence score more points.
It’s hard to predict who will do well on FNC- Febiven and Rekkles have both been #1 on the team for fantasy at some point in the season, and both have had enormous slumps. Gamsu was also #1 for a while but is doing worse now, and Spirit has been consistently good for fantasy, but has been playing poorly in terms of map awareness and team coordination. Anyone on FNC should be a viable pick, with Febiven, Spirit, and Gamsu being the most reliable for fantasy in that order.
If you believe in EL the pick is clear- MrRallez. He dominates his team in basically every category, and is by far the fantasy standout of EL. Steve is also a strong pick, scoring the best of any top laner in EU when winning.
Origen (4-4) vs Splyce (2-6)
My Odds: 85/15 favoring OG
Pinnacle Odds: 75/25 favoring OG
Points Scored Ranks: OG- 3, SPY- 5
Points Given Up Ranks: OG- 5, SPY- 10
Notable Picks: Zven ($8100), Amazing ($7700)
It’s hard for me to make sense of OGs performance this split- they went from being world championship contenders to middle of the pack in their region. I suspect their weaknesses are due to lacking coaching/analytics/management staff, which means they will tend to do worse at the beginning of a split or after major changes, and will improve over time back to their old benchmark. Patch 6.3 won’t be live yet, so I expect OGs performance to be an improvement overall, which should mean they stomp SPY fairly easily.
SPY give up the 8th most points when losing, which indicates this should be a pretty low-kill game. OG does score reasonably well, but that’s largely because most of their games have been close, and this one shouldn’t be.
If you’re going to pick someone here, the obvious choices are Zven and Amazing. Zven was the best fantasy pick from all of EU in Summer 2015 (as Niels), and he has continued to rack up a shocking amount of his teams fantasy points with consistency- scoring the best of his team in 63% of games. Amazing is a worse pick than Mithy overall, but he’s better this week for salary reasons.If you’re going to pick someone from SPY as a punt, pick Sencux- SPYs only hope.
G2 Esports (7-1) vs Team Vitality (5-3)
My Odds: 65/35 favoring G2
Pinnacle Odds: 58/42 favoring G2
Points Scored Ranks: G2- 6, VIT- 8
Points Given Up Ranks: G2- 3, VIT- 7
Notable Picks: G2 Team ($3700)
I think this game is more favored for G2 than others expect because of the macro strategies at play. VIT plays CLG.EU style; passive for most of the game, focusing on scaling compositions and lategame objectives. G2 plays more like IMT; focused on smashing lane and fighting in the early to mid game. I don’t see VIT standing up to this very well, as they’re a worse team overall, and much worse at that particular style.
Either way this should be a medium to low kill game, VIT is very passive and tends to have low kill games regardless of who they play. Honestly, I don’t recommend picking anyone here for cash games. G2 is priced out of being reasonable, and VIT could easily just score nothing. Perkz and Trick are the two obvious picks from G2, and Cabochard and Shook are the two best picks from VIT, but I don’t think either will be good plays when the game could end 7-2.
ROCCAT (1-7) vs Giants (0-8)
My Odds: 75/25 favoring ROC
Pinnacle Odds: 70/30 favoring ROC
Points Scored Ranks: ROC- 9, GIA- 10
Points Given Up Ranks: ROC- 8, GIA- 4
Notable Picks: Betsy ($7700), fredy122 ($7500), Airwaks ($7300)
Not much to say here… Giants are horrible. ROC may have only won one game, but they’ve had many close games, and they show much stronger form than GIA does. I think ROC is strongly favored, but they aren’t a consistent team, so perhaps GIA can finally take one? Probably not.
This is another game whose bloodiness is hard to predict. Last week DIG and FOX both had low overall scoring and low overall DvP, but I correctly predicted that lack of coordination on both sides often leads to a bloodbath. That could easily happen here, but there isn’t much indication it will from how these teams have performed in the past.
Betsy is actually a standout player from the EU LCS as a whole, not just ROC. If you’re picking anyone from ROC, definitely pick Betsy, he’s been the best fantasy scoring player on ROC in five of eight games, and second best in two of the others; very consistent and genuinely impressive. Fredy and Airwaks are also solid picks, they’ve reliably done quite well and are bargains at their price points. Tabzz performance is hard to predict with a new team, but he was quite good a few years ago, so maybe that’s still true.If you’re going to pick someone from GIA go with Adryh, but realistically just don’t pick anyone from GIA.