LoL Playoff Finals
The theme of the LCS playoffs this year has been upsets. Not just one or two, as the underdogs have won more than they’ve lost. Variance in outcomes plays a major part in that as it does in any sport, however the ever changing state of League of Legends has been the unsung hero for underdogs. Changes in strategical approaches to the game has hurt some teams, while others were simply better at preparing themselves for what was to come. Teams who have reached the finals have now all played at least one series in this present state of game, while also having a few weeks to find their identity on the current patch, which should favor the top teams.
G2 Esports (-190) vs. Origen (+155)
After a consistently poor regular season, which came on the heels of an incredible run throughout all of 2015, Origen have worked their way into the finals despite it all. Regularly losing to opponents that would have been easy wins last year, Origen struggled all season, only to suddenly find their form over the last two weeks. sOAZ has been a new man. Or perhaps an old man, as he’s been in the scene for a very long time and is quite an accomplished player and has recaptured some of that in time for a run to the finals. Still, it’s a stretch to believe that a player who was one of the worst in the entire league all season is suddenly going to be a legitimate difference maker in the LCS finals. His improvement does bode well for Origen’s chances of avoiding convincing lane losses, which gives them a chance to make plays that matter elsewhere on the map.
Origen’s run has been great to see and they’ll be picking up some Championship Points and have saved their split, but I’m on G2 here. Upsets and miracles have been there all throughout the playoffs and it makes you pause, and has resulted in more conservative lines from the books as well, but G2 is too strong. They’ve been both consistent and deadly and were impressive in dispatching a resurgent Fnatic last weekend. Time will only tell if we’ll see a better Origen in the summer, but however big their improvement has been, G2 are the top dog in Europe and should win this series, and in bloody fashion.
Do not roster xPeke or PowerOfEvil in cash games. Even in tournaments, POE still carries significant risk. Even in an Origen upset, he may not play every game and that’s a big blow to your team’s score. Other than that, consider most other players here. G2, similar to Cloud9 over in NA, aren’t afraid to cough up some deaths even in games where the win is never in doubt. G2 players are extremely expensive on AlphaDraft and value will be needed, but still look to work them into your lineup.
Best Plays
Perkz (DK $7,300, AD $8,200) – Firstly, this is a better buy on DraftKings. Perkz is well worth the price on either site, but comes as the most expensive mid laner on AlphaDraft. I’m more than willing to pay that price because I don’t think he will struggle to put up huge numbers in this series. With Emperor dealing with a much more difficult matchup against Zven, Perkz will lane against an improved, but not good enough PowerOfEvil. Little changes even if it’s xPeke.
Trick (DK $6,400 AD $8,100) – This is a bit of a no brainer. MVP Trick made a statement from the opening moments of the season on through G2’s first playoff series. He’s a vastly superior player in comparison to Origen jungler Amazing and that may very well be the biggest swing in this series. I’ll take Trick’s aggressive play and 76% KP any day.
Zven (DK $6,600, AD $7,600) – As usual, Zven is your clear-cut Origen value play. He is and has been their most important player all year and put up monster scores in last week’s win over H2k. Our projections have Zven over 90 points in this series even as a big underdog. If he even begins to approach that kind of score, he’ll have already done more than enough to justify these price tags.
Team SoloMid (-225) vs. Counter Logic Gaming (+181)
On the one hand, it feels strange to have this series without Immortals. On the other, it’s TSM vs. CLG once again and who would have it any other way? Well, other than Immortals and their fans. Based on regular season performance and playoff seed, this looks like an impressive run by the six seed to the finals. For me, CLG has been the impressive team for having done so much more, with so much less. TSM ultimately found their groove with their stacked roster, but CLG has had to make due with less and have been a strong team all along. Many will assume TSM will parlay their newfound strength into an easy win, but I’m not so sure.
So how does CLG win this with seemingly all odds against them now that TSM is looking like such a strong team? Consistency and coaching. They are a well prepared team for every occasion and won’t be caught off guard or off meta like Immortals was. That cannot be understated. There’s really no denying that the likes of Stixxay and HuHi are simply inferior when compared to superstars like Bjergsen and Doublelift and obviously that’s a big part of the reason that TSM is the favorite, but it’s not the lone talking point of the series. CLG will be ready and that means I won’t be afraid to be on their players when others will be avoiding them. I like this series to go the distance and although I’m leaning to a TSM 3-2 win, CLG players likely reach value in that outcome.
Best Plays
Doublelift (DK $7,600, AD $7,900) – What a ride the last several months has been for Doublelift, who was a member of CLG and defeated TSM in the Summer Split finals last year. Now he’s pitted against his former team and once again in the finals. He’ll be expected to win the lane against Stixxay, but former duo lane partner Aphromoo will have a thing or two to say about that. A RotoGrinders projection of 110 points is impossible to say no to.
Svenskeren (DK $6,600, AD $7,200) – This is a near must play on AlphaDraft, which has Svenskeren as the least expensive jungler on this two series slate. It hasn’t just been an breaking out for Sven, rather an absolute MVP emergence. He’s been arguably the best player in both of TSM’s playoff series and finally looks like the player TSM thought they were getting when they signed him last year. He gives TSM a big advantage over CLG’s Xmithie.
Darshan (DK $5,600, AD $7,400) – It’s no secret at this point that the top lane has moved back into a secondary role, with most players playing utility for their team. Tanks are a necessity in most games, but Darshan may still find ways to be the carry. To pull the upset over TSM, CLG will need a big performance from Darshan and that may mean abandoning true tanks and looking to attempt to carry. That didn’t work out for Huni against Hauntzer, but Darshan is a more disciplined player.