LoL Playoff Semifinals: Sunday, April 10th
Day two of the LCS semifinals hits Sunday and has the matchups that we’ve been waiting for. Saturday’s series were a fun primer, but I think both of this season’s split winners will come out of these two series. All four of these teams pack upside and are very talented teams across the board. There are very few genuine weak spots to pick on today, so we’ll have to be smart when searching for value. Neither of these series should be a 3-0 sweep and that should provide enough upside for most losing players to either reach, or come close to value.
G2 Esports (-180) vs. Fnatic (+147)
After Fnatic showed off its continued prowess in best of five series last week in their win over Vitality, you have to wonder how much that will come into play. On one hand, G2 are simply a better opponent and have proven that over the course of the entire season. On the other, Fnatic made a run to the finals back at IEM Katowice and have since knocked off one of the split favorites in Vitality, all in best of fives. Is there something they’re able to do to truly gain an edge over opponents in a long series, or has it just been general team improvement and game changes that have lead to these upsets? The actual answer to that question isn’t what’s important to us, but the idea that there is something that will lead this game into reaching 4 or 5 games is.
If this series does reach a fifth game? You better have loaded up, or it could be trouble. Our projections have most G2 players among the highest on the weekend. G2 aren’t afraid to die, either. For a team which finished the regular season with an impressive 15-3 record, they still died a total of 175 times, just shy of 10 deaths per game. Teams like Vitality and H2k both finished with less deaths despite the fact that they won less games. Fnatic were far less likely to die in wins, so there is some downside to G2 players should Fnatic gain early control in any games. I can’t call that particularly likely though, even with the way the upsets have been rolling in so far in the playoffs.
Of course, Fnatic just wiped out Vitality and looked good doing it. Fnatic wins this series through the jungle. Both in being aware and prepared for Trick’s early game presence, while needing Spirit to be the guy from Katowice. Spirit has shown the ability to carry games, and with this so called jungler carry meta, maybe he steps up. I do favor G2 individually in most lanes, with only Gamsu being superior than his lane opponent, and he’s been inconsistent at best.
Best Plays
Emperor (DK $7,500, AD $8,100) – With a DraftKings projection of 117 points, Emperor is worth the discount from WildTurtle on both sites. Emperor has received less attention than Perkz this season if only because some flashy plays from the rookie mid laner have made him appear as if he’s the teams main carry. That’s not really the case. It’s a two man show, with Emperor actually finishing the season with more kills than Perkz.
Trick (DK $6,400, AD $7,900) – Given the likelihood of a kill heavy series, Trick’s 76% Kill Participation is difficult to be off of. Projected north of 100 for the series is enough to sell me on its own, and his play throughout the season was both consistent and high level.
Gamsu (DK $5,800, AD $7,300) – Once again, here’s your reality of a two-series slate. We aren’t necessarily thrilled about this, but we’re going to have to do it anyway. Gamsu’s play has turned around though and as mentioned, G2 isn’t afraid to die. Gamsu should be able to gain an early advantage in parts of this series and ultimately pay off his affordable tag. Fnatic exposure is going to be vital as well as they’ve shown that the upset shouldn’t be ruled out.
Immortals (-746) vs. Team SoloMid (+503)
Well, just process those odds for a moment. It’s understandable when you look at the progression and final result of the regular season, but TSM surely deserves some credit for dispatching Cloud9 with relative ease last week. Still, I do certainly favor Immortals and heavily so. Individually, TSM can compare quite well across the RIft with Immortals, but teamwork and map play all goes in favor of the 17-1 Immortals. Will that translate to fantasy points? Yes, yes it will.
Where will those points come from, though? That has been a little less predictable with Immortals than with some other teams. All five members were strong fantasy performers all season long, but Huni finished with 20 more kills than any other top laner in North America, which did complicate things at times. Because he’s simply by far and away the best player in his role in the region, it’s no uncommon for his superior talent to sometimes take over games, which can hurt his teammates kill projections. All in all, Huni and his teammates are all options against TSM, but who goes the biggest in a small sample size is anyone’s guess. Mine is Huni.
For TSM, even after a poor season, it’s still difficult to not want to roster the likes of Bjergsen and Doublelift when they are laning against opponents we perceive to be weaker individually. They are both options as they are in most weeks and can’t be avoided with so few options on a two-series slate, however we should recognize that a 3-0 series scoreline is a legitimate possibility, which would likely result in Fnatic player’s being the better values. I’ll be grabbing at least one from each team, though.
Best Plays
Huni (DK $7,400, AD $8,100) – Huni had not one, but two Penta Kills this season as a top laner. Simply put, top laners who have Penta upside are rare to come by these days, especially as the way professional teams are currently focusing on other roles being their carry. Even with the shifting focus, I’d still expect Huni to feature on a carry champion or two in this series, as he’s simply a much better player than lane opponent Hauntzer.
Reignover (DK $7,200, AD $7,800) – Actually $100 cheaper than Trick on AlphaDraft, the league MVP is close to a must play on that site. Upside, floor and general awesomeness make him a great play on DraftKings as well. A large champion pool and a high skill level give Immortals an immense advantage in the jungle, even acknowledging that Svenkersen’s play was significantly improved last week against C9.
Bjergsen (DK $5,200, AD $7,400) – Although Bjergsen is designated as a North American player by LCS rules, he’ll be facing off against the lone remaining NA born mid laner in Pobelter. Belter is a good, long-term professional player, but is just that. Bjergsen is a star is going to have to flat out beat Pobelter across this series to give TSM a lane advantage that they aren’t likely to get elsewhere. An aggressive, snowballing Bjerg would give TSM a chance, especially with Hauntzer likely going tanky to avoid being decimated by Huni.