Chargers vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chargers vs. 49ers Odds
| Chargers Odds | +7.5 |
| 49ers Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 13 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Entering play, both teams are firmly entrenched in the playoff picture in their respective contest. Still, oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable win for the 49ers in this primetime affair, pricing San Francisco as 7.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Chargers
Through eight games, the Chargers’ offense has dramatically underperformed preseason expectations – ranking only 18th in EPA/play. Justin Herbert has posted a 13-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and ranks 11th among qualified signal callers in QBR. The offensive struggles for this group have primarily stemmed from an inability to win the line of scrimmage, with massive holes on the offensive line outside of Jamaree Salyer and Corey Linsley. Los Angeles could have a difficult time protecting Herbert this evening against a San Francisco pass-rush that ranks 3rd in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt in 2022.
Defensively, the Chargers have struggled mightily, ranking 23rd in overall EPA/play. Khalil Mack has been outstanding on the edge and Derwin James has been one of the better safeties in the NFL, but inconsistent play from the rest of this unit has resulted in four games this fall in which opponents have scored at least 27 points. Los Angeles has been especially poor against the run thus far in the campaign, ranking 31st in Rush EPA/play.
San Francisco 49ers
Despite losing starting quarterback Trey Lance to a season-ending injury, the 49ers remain one of the most talented teams in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo has been far from elite, with an 11-to-4 touchdown-to-interception, but he remains a capable game manager. Tonight, Garoppolo is likely to find success against a Los Angeles secondary unit worse than league average in a number of defensive pass metrics. San Francisco should also find plenty of room to run on the ground on Sunday, considering that Los Angeles ranks 32nd in the NFL in opponent rush yards-per-carry.
Defensively, the 49ers are poised to turn in a strong performance against a Chargers’ offense that will be without wide receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Per Pro Football Focus, San Francisco has one of the most lopsided advantages at the line of scrimmage of any team in the league in Week 10. The 49ers currently rank 9th in defensive Dropback EPA/play and 8th in defensive Rush EPA/play, making them one of the most well-rounded defenses in the entire NFL. Expect this unit to make life difficult on Justin Herbert and company.
Chargers vs. 49ers – Picks & Predictions
Entering play, the 49ers rank 25th in plays run per game. In this matchup, San Francisco should be able to run the ball effectively against a Los Angeles defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA/play through eight games. Further, both defenses rank worse than league average in opponent completion percentage this fall. The result should be plenty of running clock, with both the ground attack and short passing game being featured heavily in this matchup. If taking action on this contest, the under is a strong look.
PICK: Under 47 (-134, DraftKings)
Image Credit: Imagn