Major League Soccer Picks: Saturday, April 18th
With MLS starting up today on DraftKings I find myself in a very interesting position. I consider myself very knowledgeable about soccer, but MLS has always been a league I am not interested in. However, with the introduction of Daily Fantasy, I’m beginning to consider taking an active role into understanding the league better and decided to share this journey with you guys.
This piece will not be a typical picks piece, as I think my knowledge of MLS is still in its infancy. I will, however, write this piece to share my research process for a league I know virtually nothing about, and using that process it will lead me to some player selections that can hopefully lead to a successful DFS day. So join me on this journey and we’ll discover the game together.
The Odds
The first step is to look at the vegas odds (as they appear on Bovada) on the matches and identify the favorites.
DC United (+105) vs Houston Dynamo (+230) (2.5 goal over +105 /under -135)
Columbus Crew (-110) vs Orlando City (+275) (2.5 goals over +110 /under -140)
FC Dallas (-115) vs Toronto FC (+275) (2.5 goals over -120 /under -110)
Colorado Rapids (+145) vs Seattle Sounders (+165) (2.5 goals over +105 /under -135)
Real Salt Lake (EVEN) vs Vancouver Whitecaps (+250) (2.5 goals over +110 /under -140)
LA Galaxy (-150) vs Sporting Kansas City (+375) (2.5 goals over EVEN / under -130)
These odds appear to lead us to believe that there are two overwhelming favorites (LA Galaxy, and Columbus Crew), three teams that are strong favorites (DC United, FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake) one game where the two teams are evenly matched (Colorado Rapids vs Seattle Sounders)
In addition to that, I now know which games I can focus on in terms of goals scored, FC Dallas/Toronto FC appears to have the best odds to go over the 2.5 goal mark, with Real Salt Lake and Vancouver Whitecaps appearing as the least likely to cross the 2.5 goal mark. That knowledge should help focus my attention when it comes time to select forwards and midfielders later on.
Recent Form
Looking at the 12 teams in play today, I decided to see whether form can tell me any information about these teams and whether there is something worth considering when evaluating these games
DC United – They’ve played five games this season so far, and are currently in second place in the Eastern Conference with three goals, one draw and a loss in Week 2 to the New York Red Bulls. However, they have only managed five goals in their five matches while allowing four goals (all against the Red Bulls in both the matches they’ve faced that squad)
Houston Dynamo – The Dynamo are coming off a 3-0 win against the Montreal Impact, but that was only their second win of the season, and they more than doubled their goal total (up to 5). Houston also doesn’t allow many goals, as they’ve only been breached three times in six matches
Columbus Crew – Sitting in seventh in the Eastern Conference, the Crew have five goals scored and five goals conceded. the model of evenness it seems. However, I’m noticing that their possession stats show a 52% total possession, and they rely heavily on short passes. This team may be under performing, as they lead MLS in shots per game at 15.4, while they drop down to fifth when it comes to whether these shots are on target. Is this a case of bad players taking lots of shots? Or decent players getting unlucky in targeting their shots?
Orlando City – Orlando City are currently in third place in the Eastern Conference with 8 points in six matches. Orlando is an underdog in this matchup, but so far this young season, playing on the road has not scared them as they have two wins on the road and five goals scored, with the latest being a 2-0 win at Portland.
FC Dallas – Dallas takes the second-fewest shots per game in MLS, but has scored 7 goals off these shots so far in this young season. They sit in second in the Western Conference with 10 points. They are coming off of two losses, including a 4-0 loss at home to the Colorado Rapids, which may have shaken up the team a little bit. Some numbers show a very high conversion rate heading into that matchup, which may indicate that there was some luck involved. Dallas is a heavy favorite going against Toronto.
Toronto FC – Speaking of Toronto, they have just three points off of four matches. They have lost three matches in a row and have allowed an average of two goals a game. They are very big underdogs in this game and if there ever was a spot for Dallas to fix things up after an embarrassing loss, this may be it.
Colorado Rapids – As you may recall, we just mentioned the Rapids in their 4-0 drubbing of Dallas on the road last match. This match they face a different opponent, the Seattle Sounders, at home. Colorado, however, haven’t scored a goal at home this season yet. So we have to see if they can carry that momentum from last week back to their home fans.
Seattle Sounders – The Rapids’ opponent, Seattle, haven’t scored an away goal this season yet, even though they have only played two away games, will both these teams goal droughts end today? Or will we be treated to one of those fancy nil-nil draws that soccer detractors love to bring up?
Real Salt Lake – RSL are in third place in the Western Conference after accumulating nine points in five games, and are coming off a draw last week (one of those nil-nils). This matchup should be a big one for them as it’s a chance against the Vancouver Whitecaps, who lead the entire MLS with 13 points off seven matches. Real Salt Lake will take advantage of being at home, and could pull a win here against the league leaders.
Vancouver Whitecaps – The league leaders head to Salt Lake City to play this match in altitude which should prove to be a tough opponent. The Whitecaps are coming off of a loss to the San Jose Earthquakes and a tie to the Columbus Crew. Vancouver is a high-octane offensive team tho as they are third in shots taken and second in shots on target. They have also scored the most goals (tied with NYRB). The Whitecaps will be attacking in this one.
L.A. Galaxy – In seventh place in the Western Conference, LA Galaxy are underachieving considering the star power on this squad. With six goals scored and six goals conceded, the 0 goal difference shows that they’ve been bad defensively.
Sporting Kansas City – The fourth-place team in the West is Kansas City, and they sport a 2-3-1 record for 9 points and head into this matchup undefeated in their last four. These are two teams that like to shoot the ball and both have enjoyed high possession games. On the road, Kansas has drawn three out of four matchups and have managed to score four goals. They are a big underdog today which may be a mistake as on paper these two teams look evenly matched.
The picks
In an attempt to tie all that information together, I’m going to present a number of players that are going to be in most of my lineups.
Goalkeepers
Steve Clark, Columbus Crew $5,300
Nick Rimando, Real Salt Lake $5,000
Stefan Frei, Seattle Sounders $4,600
Clint Irwin, Colorado Rapids $4,500
Defenders
Dan Gargan, LA Galaxy $4,000
Hernan Grana, Columbus Crew $3,500
Waylon Francis, Columbus Crew $3,000
Sean Franklin, DC United $3,900
Marcel De Jong, Sporting Kansas City $3,100
Jalil Anibaba, Sporting Kansas City $3,700
Michel, FC Dallas $4,600
Midfielders
Chris Rolfe, DC United $6,600
Kaka, Orlando City $9,000
Javier Morales, Real Salt Lake $8,700
Junino, LA Galaxy $7,800
Stefan Ishizaki, LA Galaxy $6,900
Kevin Molino, Orlando City $5,600
Dillon Powers, Colorado Rapids $6,400
Brad Davis, Houston Dynamo $8,200
Graham Zusi, Sporting Kansas City $6,000
Forwards
Fabian Castillo, FC Dallas $8,000
Octavio Rivero, Vancouver $9,800
Kei Kamara, Columbus Crew $8,400
Jozy Altidore, Toronto FC $7,300
Blas Perez, FC Dallas $7.600
Dom Dwyer, Sporting Kansas City $9,300
Robbie Keane, LA Galaxy $9,400
Fredrico Higuain, Columbus Crew $7,000
Robbie Findley, Toronto FC $5,700
Hopefully these pan out for you and this information is useful as you go ahead and you build your first MLS teams. Also, fill up those tournaments so DK can see that there is a market for soccer contests and thus keep running some big GPPs
Good Luck!