Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Odds and Betting Picks for Arizona Sportsbooks
Diamondbacks vs. Mariners Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +155 |
| Mariners Odds | -170 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 11 |
| Time | 9:10 pm ET |
| TV | BSAZ |
On Saturday evening, the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Seattle Mariners will continue a three-game set at T-Mobile Park. In the series opener, the Mariners emerged victorious by a final score of 5-4 for their seventh win in their last nine contests. Entering play, Arizona has lost 11 of their last 12 games. Tonight, Arizona will send Humberto Castellanos to the mound as they look to get back in the win column. Seattle will counter with Chris Flexen. Oddsmakers are expecting the Mariners to stay hot, pricing them as -170 favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Castellanos has only 35.1 innings of big-league experience entering play this evening—posting a 4.58 ERA and a 4.53 FIP. In 24.2 innings in 2021, he has been slightly better with a 3.65 ERA, 4.18 xERA, and a 4.17 FIP. However, Castellanos seems unlikely to sustain those numbers given that he turned in an unimpressive 4.99 ERA and a 6.07 FIP at AAA this season. He ranks in the 13th percentile in fastball velocity and only the 8th percentile in spin rate on his fastball amongst qualified starters. He is not someone bettors should be excited to put their money on in any matchup.
Over the last two weeks, Arizona’s offense has struggled mightily—ranking 29th in OPS and 26th in ISO. During that stretch, this lineup is only walking 6.8 percent of the time, which means that they are both struggling to hit the ball to earn their way on base, and failing to work the count to get on base via a free pass. There is little reason to think that this group will turn things around over the final few weeks of the regular season.
All year, the Diamondbacks bullpen has been one of the worst in the league. It is a borderline miracle that this relief unit ranks 22nd in FIP over the last 30 days, considering the paucity of talent that Manager Torey Lovullo has to work with on a nightly basis. There are no usage concerns heading into tonight’s matchup, but neither are there many reliable names capable of protecting a late lead, should they be fortunate to have one.
Seattle Mariners
Flexen has been a pleasant surprise for the Mariners through 26 turns in the rotation in 2021 with a 3.56 ERA, 4.33 xERA, and a 3.80 FIP. He has been his best when pitching in the comforts of his home ballpark with a 3.03 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP. Since August 13, Flexen has turned in a 2.59 ERA and a 3.51 FIP, with three of those five starts coming on the road. In that span, he is still only striking-out 16.3 percent of opposing batters, but a miniscule 5.4 percent walk-rate and an ability to limit hard-contact has helped him be effective. Bettors should expect another strong outing from him tonight.
When considering a wager on the Mariners, their offensive attack is always a concern, and tonight is no exception. Over the last two weeks, this lineup ranks 18th in OPS and 23rd in ISO. The only thing that they have managed to do well at the plate in this stretch is draw walks—ranking third-best in baseball. Still, this is an offense that is boom-or-bust, relying far too much on inconsistent means of generating run-scoring opportunities. Seattle’s bats draw a favorable matchup in this one, but they are still a difficult unit for bettors to trust wholeheartedly.
Still, if this game is close into the late-innings, Seattle has a decisive advantage with a relief corps that has been excellent for the majority of the season. Diego Castillo, Anthony Misiewicz, Drew Steckenrider, and Casey Sadler were all used in yesterday’s victory, but an off-day on Thursday means that everyone should be available if needed again tonight. Castillo is the only pitcher with usage concerns after throwing 37 pitches in the last four days across three appearances.
Pick
Entering play, Seattle is only one game behind the New York Yankees for the second Wild Card position in the American League. In this matchup with the Diamondbacks, they have the better starting pitcher, the better offense, and the better bullpen. They also have the psychological advantage, being a team trying to make the postseason for the first time since 2001 while Arizona has little to play for other than pride at this point in the year.
The money line is likely to continue moving in Seattle’s favor throughout the day. A better value spot for bettors is to take Seattle on the -0.5 run line for the first five innings.
PICK: Mariners -0.5, First 5 innings (-122)
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