Market Exploitation: NFL Week 1
An NFL player must meet two criteria to qualify for a spot in this space: He must be a solid value on the most popular daily fantasy sites, and he must be ignored or despised by daily gamers everywhere.
Exploitation is the foundation of this column, and in daily fantasy football, there’s not much room for exploitation unless and until a player is widely seen as a waste of DFS dollars.
When a player is a value to everyone, he’s a value to no one.
It’s also true that as daily fantasy football grows and larger audiences consume the same DFS advice, weekly “sleepers” are not in fact sleepers, especially in large tournaments where we want to be right, but right alone.
This column will draw in large part on the lessons discussed in a book I penned in early 2014 called, How To Think Like A Daily Fantasy Football Winner. The book takes relevant advice from the burgeoning field of behavioral investing, Wall Street mavens, and poker professionals.
Two lessons that come up repeatedly in behavioral investing: Consistent stock market winners are greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy, as Warren Buffet famously said, and taking a firmly contrarian stance is as unnatural as it is profitable (if done correctly).
“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott, entrepreneur, investor, editor and writer
Daily gamers should train themselves to examine DFS values through a lens of fear and trepidation when the fantasy community at large is bullish on a player or group of players. Being greedy when fear clouds the landscape is equally important in daily fantasy, as this is where inefficiencies became so very clear.
Think of it this way: to be greedy when others are greedy and fearful when others are filled with fear will often be, at best, a wash for you. You’ll simply be part of the swelling crowd that faded that running back who stunk it up, or went all in on that receiver who scored thrice against a garbage secondary.
Week 1 is filled with players whose roles are anything but etched in stone, who had terrible preseasons, or who have middling matchups in the season’s opening week. Beginning Week 2, we’ll examine value plays among guys whose DFS salaries have dropped the most from week to week.
Let’s get into some exploitation (by site).
DraftKings Market Exploitation
Quarterbacks
Shaun Hill ($5,000): A 34-year-old journeyman signal caller who has tossed a grand total of 16 passes in the past three years playing in a conservative offense? What’s not to like.
There’s a strong statistical argument that Hill is a better option for the Rams than Sam Bradford. Hill, who posted seven top-12 fantasy weeks in 11 games while filling in for an injured Matthew Stafford in 2010, kicks off his starting gig in St. Louis with a potentially juicy matchup against a Minnesota secondary that hemorrhaged yards and touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in 2013.
The Vikings’ secondary has improved, but they remain a target for those who stream quarterbacks in re-draft and target good matchups in DFS.
Facing an average of 40.5 pass attempts per game in 2013, the Vikings gave up .53 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) – third worst in the NFL. If Hill is going to notch solid fantasy numbers against anyone this year, it’s this week at home in a game that should include nice positive game flow for Hill and company (St. Louis is a four point favorite).
Hill, available for the minimum on DraftKings, is a sensible swing for the fences in Week 1 tournaments.
Geno Smith ($6,500): Gang Green’s starting signal caller is cheaper on DraftKings than his backup. That’s weird.
Oakland’s coverage unit should be somewhat improved in 2014, but let’s not forget that the Silver and Black secondary was unfailingly generous to quarterbacks just a year ago. Oakland gave up an average of .55 fantasy points every time a pass was thrown against them – second worst in the NFL.
Geno, strangely enough, was borderline elite in Jets’ wins during his rookie campaign. He averaged 23.8 fantasy points in those New York wins – a shade more than Drew Brees averaged in all 2013 games. Geno’s completion percentage was 7 percent higher, he threw for 59 more yards, and ran for 23 more yards in Jets’ wins.
New York is favored here, at home against a slightly improved Oakland secondary. After a somewhat lackluster preseason in which we all waited for Geno to choke away the starting job, he comes into Week 1 with no fanfare in DFS circles and a pass-catching cast vastly improved form last year.
Running backs
Stevan Ridley ($4,900): Questions of ball security plagued Ridley once again this August, raising questions about his spot on the final Patriots roster.
Yes, perception of Ridley could hardly be lower.
Ridley, the 28th priciest running back on DraftKings, sports a terrifying (and hopeful) split in New England wins and losses. Ridley notches an average of 6.1 fantasy points in Pats losses and 10.2 points in wins. His attempts, yardage, and touchdowns spike in New England victories.
The Patriots are favored to beat the Dolphins in Miami this week, and with one-time sleeper candidate James White looking thoroughly unimpressive this preseason, Ridley could be a low-cost exploitative play.
With double-digit touches against Miami – no sure thing – Ridley has a ceiling of 17.3 fantasy points, according to the RotoViz projection app.
Ben Tate ($5,200): It’s tough to find an unquestioned every-down runner at such a low cost this week. Tate can be had for less than Trent Richardson.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Browns forced to abandon their run-heavy attack in this one, though that’s not a knock on Tate’s prospects. He’s expected to take passing-down duties in Cleveland too.
4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed tool projects the Steelers to be a middle-of-the-road defense against opposing running backs, so this is hardly a must-avoid matchup for Tate.
Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson ($6,600): I wouldn’t call Johnson a screaming value on DraftKings, as he’s top-10 in wide receiver salary. An offseason beset by Johnson’s unpleasant back and forth with Houston’s front office and concerns about AJ’s age will likely ensure he’s not the most popular play in Week 1.
Johnson plays Washington’s secondary, which was rated by Pro Football Focus as the seventh worst coverage unit in 2013. Johnson, since 2012, has averaged 8 catches and 111 yards on 12 targets against bottom-10 pass defenses. That’s 19.1 fantasy points just on receptions.
DeSean Jackson ($5,400): DJax, the 26th most expensive receiver on the DraftKings board, was almost silent this preseason as he was hampered by a minor ankle injury.
Jackson gets his crack at the Houston secondary, which ranked as the second worst in 2013, according to PFF’s metrics. DJax, over his career, has scored a whole lot more touchdowns against bottom-feeding coverage units, notching .55 touchdowns per game against the league’s worst defenses as opposed to .23 touchdowns per game against top-20 defenses.
Tight End
Jared Cook ($3,500): Cook, fantasy’s most hated man in 2013, is a cheap play against a Minnesota defense that was consistently generous to tight ends a season ago. The Vikings’ linebackers, in fact, were graded as some of the worst cover guys at the position, according to PFF.
Minnesota gave up 14.1 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends in 2013. Only three teams gave up more production to tight ends. Cook will likely be a deeply unpopular play and has every chance to exploit a fine matchup.
Embrace others’ hate.
FanDuel Market Exploitation
Quarterback
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,100) vs. Washington: At the same price as the Vikings’ backup quarterback, you can get a signal caller at home with a favorable Week 1 matchup.
FitzMagic, whose rushing acumen made him an excellent play for several weeks in Jake Locker’s stead last season, has averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game against bottom-10 pass defenses over his career. That includes 1.6 touchdown tosses in those games, on average.
Washington’s secondary may be slightly improved, but I don’t think there’s much reason to think they’ll be much better than a bottom-10 pass defense, especially with Brandon Merriweather suspended to start the year.
Fitzpatrick made no fantasy waves this summer. The perception arrow is pointing down for the entire Texans offense. That makes their quarterback a preeminently sneaky play in his first game as Houston’s starter.
Shaun Hill ($4,500) vs. Minnesota: I’ve alluded to the reasoning above, and the price of $4,500 doesn’t change anything stated.
Running backs
Fred Jackson ($5,800): The lead runner and the unquestioned goal line back in one of the NFL’s run-heaviest offenses is available as the 41st priciest runner on FanDuel. Take full advantage.
Jackson is old and boring and largely uncelebrated in fantasy circles. With double-digit touches against Chicago, Jackson’s ceiling stands at 23.7 fantasy points, according to the RotoViz projection app. His median projection is hopeful too, sitting at a healthy 16.1 points.
Wide Receivers
Maques Colston ($5,700) at Atlanta: There are an astounding 40 receivers priced higher than Colston in Week 1, as the Saints get to pick on a Falcons secondary that could very well be the worst in the NFL this season.
Colston is reportedly healthier than he’s been for a couple seasons. He was targeted four times in the first quarter of Drew Brees’ final preseason outing.
With little buzz surrounding Colston, I think this is the perfect time to deploy him.
James Jones ($4,900) at New York Jets: I’m rather bullish on the Raiders’ No. 1 receiver with Matt Schaub officially out of the proverbial saddle. Oakland should be forced to the air in this one, bolstering Jones’ prospects against an injury-ravaged Gang Green secondary.
With just seven targets – not a tall order in a game that could see Derek Carr throw 40 passes – Jones’ ceiling is a hefty 20 points, per the RotoViz projection machine. I really like his chances of scoring in his first game as a Raider.
Tight End
Garrett Graham ($4,800) vs. Washington: The primary tight end in Bill O’Brien’s offense for less than a handful of backup tight ends? Yes, please. More, please.
Graham, who produced in spurts as Houston’s starter during the second half of 2013, squares off against a Washington defense that allowed 8.3 points per game to tight ends in 2013, according to 4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points.
Any excitement about Graham is largely absent after a very quiet preseason. I see him as a solid play in tournaments. You’ll either be right alone or wrong alone with Graham occupying your tight end spot on FanDuel.