Market Exploitation: NFL Week 4
Reggie Bush, in the lead up to Week 3, was a case study in why it’s important to take the pulse of daily fantasy gamers as we compose our weekly tournament lineups.
Bush’s backfield mate, Joique Bell, was $500 cheaper than Bush as the Lions were set to take on the Packers, and consensus pointed to Bell as the clear and present superior play to Bush. Understanding bearishness and bullishness is critically important.
Bush, as was mentioned in this space a week ago, had been efficient with limited touches headed into Detroit’s Week 3 game, averaging .77 fantasy points every time he touched the ball in the season’s first two weeks. Perception – and Bush’s FanDuel price – was down, however, opening a prime opportunity for market exploitation.
Nineteen fantasy points later, our exploitative play paid off, as Bush finished Week 4 as a top-6 runner.
Tony Romo, the quarterback highlighted in this space last week, posted a reasonably good Week 4 line, though he didn’t exceed his FanDuel cost by much. Even with Keenan Allen’s considerable Week 3 price drop, he wasn’t anything close to his FanDuel salary. The Chargers’ grinding offensive pace makes any San Diego pass catcher a risky play from here on out.
The Market Watch tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ Grinders U course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Now let’s continue to be greedy while our competitors are fearful.
FanDuel Market Exploitation: Week 4
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick ($8,100) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Kaepernick, despite his $400 FanDuel salary decrease headed into Week 4, is still among the site’s 10 priciest signal callers. But if you’re hesitant to role with a bottom-basement salaried quarterback this week, invest in Kaep.
Vegas projects two boatloads of points in this game, which features two secondaries that have been summarily shredded in recent weeks. Kaepernick has averaged 24 fantasy points per game against bottom-half pass defenses (of which the Eagles are certainly one) while scoring 16.4 points against top-half coverage units. It’s also worth noting that Kaepernick has thrown for an average of 229.9 yards per game with Michael Crabtree in the lineup – about 45 yards more than when Crabtree is on the 49ers’ bench.
Kaepernick isn’t a classic against-the-grain play this week, but his salary is down and I don’t anticipate his tournament ownership to be high.
Running Back
Eddie Lacy ($8,000) vs. Chicago Bears
Good feelings about fantasy’s 52nd highest scoring running back are hard to find as we approach Week 4. Lacy is averaging a meager .50 fantasy points per touch.
Now for the good news: His FanDuel asking price dropped by another $200 after Week 3’s disastrous performance against Detroit and Lacy gets to take on a Chicago defense that has allowed 144.7 rushing yards per game (on 28.7 rush attempts). Only six teams give up more on the ground.
Peripheral stats speak well of Lacy, including his fifth-best elusive rating on Pro Football Focus. He’s not exactly cheap this week, but investing in Lacy is being greedy when others are fearful about the Green Bay back’s prospects.
Wide Receivers
Rueben Randle ($5,300) at Washington
Randle’s FanDuel salary has dipped by $300, making him the site’s 50th most expensive receiver. It’s time to buy the G-Men’s best red zone threat while there’s blood in the streets.
Washington’s secondary – even with DeAngelo Hall – is giving up 11.7 yards per completion, the fifth worst mark in the NFL. More than 70 percent of touchdowns scored against Washington through three weeks have been through the air. Washington, from here on out, will be a secondary worth targeting every week. With Randle’s salary drop, I see him as a prime tournament play.
Randle is averaging a decent 1.26 fantasy points per target, so it’s not like he’s failing to do anything with the limited opportunities he’s been given. For perspective, Demaryius Thomas is notching 1.22 points for every target he sees.
Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,600) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Don’t let last week’s domination of the Bucs fool you. The Falcons’ secondary is by no means an elite unit, and I think we’ll see as much in Week 4 against Teddy Bridgewater and company.
CPatt is now priced as a borderline WR2 – with 21 receivers priced higher on FanDuel – as he sees a marked upgrade at quarterback and a favorable matchup. Norval Turner will have to get Patterson the ball more often if he’s going to pay off – a decent bet in the wake of Adrian Peterson’s departure.
Perception and salary are low for Patterson this week. Take advantage.
Tight End
Vernon Davis ($6,200) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Make sure Davis is set to play in this likely point-fest before you insert him into your Week 4 tourney lineup, but if he’s a go, I like him quite a bit.
The Eagles have allowed 5.7 receptions to tight ends through three games, though that production includes just a single touchdown. Davis’ FanDuel price plunged by $900 after he missed Week 3’s game, making him much more reasonable for those fading Jimmy Graham in tournament action.
Davis has averaged a ridiculous 3.03 fantasy points per target in two games. He’s a surefire against-the-grain play in what could very well be the week’s highest scoring affair.
DraftKings Market Exploitation: Week 4
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford ($8,000) at New York Jets
Stafford’s Week 3 abomination came with a big hit to his DraftKings salary. Stafford is the site’s seventh highest price signal caller after a price drop of $800.
Detroit is still throwing the ball plenty (38 times per game) for Stafford to benefit from volume even when he’s not efficient in the Lions’ new offensive system, and the Jets’ injury-ravaged secondary is proven susceptible as the team’s front seven snuffs out opposing running attacks.
Remove the Jets’ Week 1 tilt against Derek Carr and New York is allowing 285.5 passing yards and 2.5 passing scores per contest. I expect Stafford to light up the Gang Green secondary, and with doubt creeping in about Stafford’s consistency after the mess against Green Bay, I think this is a perfect time to strike.
Cam Newton ($7,100) at Baltimore Ravens
For all the talk of Steve Smith and the various chips on his rage-filled shoulder, it’s easy to forget that Newton gets his crack at a defense that’s allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt – fourth worst in the NFL.
Only eight teams have given up more passing yards per game than Baltimore through the season’s first few weeks, and Newton has posted .44 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) in seven quarters of action in 2014. I can almost guarantee that daily gamers will fade Newton in Week 4, making him a premiere against-the-grain play at a nice value after a $300 cut in his DraftKings price.
Running Backs
Alfred Morris ($5,500) vs. New York Giants
There are now 18 running backs priced above Morris on DraftKings. I find that amazing.
Morris saw his price cut by $600 after a lackluster Week 3 shootout that saw him phased out of a pass-heavy attack. Morris, fantasy’s No. 9 running back through three weeks, is averaging .66 fantasy points per touch as Washington gets set to play a Giants defense that has held passers in check. That opens an opportunity for Morris.
Teams are averaging 27.8 rushing attempts per game against Big Blue – a number I don’t think is unreasonable for this Thursday night tilt. It’s also worth noting that the Giants are allowing 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game; only the Falcons and Packers give up more through three weeks. Morris is your guy if you’re looking to go cheap and contrarian at running back this week.
Eddie Lacy ($5,600) at Chicago Bears
Lacy’s nightmarish Week 3 performance against a frighteningly tough Detroit front seven led to a $300 salary drop on DraftKings. That makes him the site’s 16th priciest back.
Lacy, despite a horrible start to the year, is still among the most elusive runners – according to Pro Football Focus. Chicago is allowing 144.7 rushing yards per game (on 28.7 rush attempts). Only six teams give up more on the ground. This is no time to fade Lacy in DraftKings tournaments.
Wide Receivers
De’Andre Hopkins ($4,800) vs. Buffalo Bills
There very well may be a changing of the pass catching guard happening in Houston. The best part: DraftKings has slashed the salary of the guy subsuming the primary role in the Texans’ passing attack.
Hopkins’ salary dropped by $600 after Week 3, which saw him catch six passes for 116 yards despite having a marvelous one-handed 53-yard grab taken away on a penalty. Hopkins is now priced as a WR3 and he may be a borderline WR1 in a matchup against a middling Buffalo coverage unit.
Hopkins, who is $200 cheaper than Joe McKnight, is a screaming value in tournaments and cash games.
Vincent Jackson ($5,100) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I see Jackson as the best fit for this space since the season’s opening week. Josh McCown’s mangled right thumb might be the best thing that’s ever happened to VJax’s fantasy value. Jackson will go up against a Pittsburgh secondary that lost top cover man Ike Taylor after his DraftKings salary fell by $700.
New Tampa quarterback Mike Glennon targeted Jackson heavily in 2013 and looked his way often (nine times) once again when he came in for McCown last week in Atlanta. The Bucs might try to pound away on the ground, but with a sieve of a defense, they’ll likely not have that luxury against a Steelers offense that picked apart a very good Carolina defense one week ago.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($4,000) at San Francisco 49ers
It’s fairly rare to be able to exploit daily fantasy market shifts in a game as high-scoring as the Eagles-49ers tilt could be. We have that chance with Ertz, whose DraftKings price took a $1,200 hit. He’s now the site’s 15th most expensive tight end. Owen Daniels’ price is $100 higher.
The Niners are allowing 4.6 receptions to tight ends through three weeks, though they have allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points against the position. It’s not as if Ertz – who caught two passes for 14 yards in Week 3 – is being phased out of the Philly offense. He ran a very healthy 30 pass routes last week against Washington – that’s plenty for consistent production over the long haul.
Ertz is a premiere value on DraftKings and an ideal play in tournaments this week.