Market Exploitation: NFL Week 5
It would be so very natural to swear off Philadelphia Eagles after last week’s devastating fantasy debacle in San Francisco.
Every single starting quarterback outscored Nick Foles last week, LeSean McCoy delivered his second consecutive colossal clunker of a stat line, Zach Ertz was mostly uninvolved, and Jeremy Maclin converted a whopping 14 targets – more than any receiver in Week 4 – into a measly 9.7 fantasy points.
It was, quite simply, a waking nightmare for anyone who invested in Philly’s skill position players.
Remember though, the most successful investors have always looked to take advantage when there’s blood in the streets, and the Eagles are essentially the fantasy football equivalent of the elevator in “The Shining” right now.
We’ll continue looking for value among players whose daily fantasy salaries have dropped the most from one week to the next, hoping to capitalize on market inefficiencies along the way.
The Market Watch Tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ GrindersU course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Now let’s continue to be greedy while our competitors are fearful.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Nick Foles ($7,900) vs. St. Louis Rams
Foles, with no real threat of a running game, stood no chance against the 49ers last week. Chip Kelly’s signal caller is a prototypical example of a quarterback who thrives on efficiency rather than volume.
Foles is the 10th priciest quarterback on FanDuel after a $400 drop in salary.
The Rams are allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt – only two teams are worse. Opponents have attacked St. Louis on the ground, though I don’t think that precludes Foles from posting a nice line against the Rams.
It’s critically important that Philadelphia is favored in this one: Foles averages 13.1 fantasy points in Eagles losses and 28.1 points in wins. Foles, since the start of 2013, has thrown an average of 2.36 touchdowns when the Eagles win.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy ($8,300) vs. St. Louis Rams
I would’ve bet the mortgage last month that McCoy would never make it into this space. My wife is glad I didn’t.
McCoy’s FanDuel price plunged by $400 after Week 4’s disaster, making him the site’s seventh highest-priced runner. That’s not a giant discount, but remember that McCoy has become a contrarian play in the wake of two atrocious performances.
The Rams have allowed 260 rushing yards over their past two games, giving up 5.1 yards per carry along the way. Only two defenses allow a higher YPC. The Eagles get Lane Johnson back this week, and with Philly coaches reassuring beat reporters that Shady remains a centerpiece in what will remain a run-heavy attack, I think now is the time to go in on McCoy at a reduced price.
Wide Receivers
Allen Hurns ($5,300) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Attrition has left Hurns as one of two Jacksonville wideouts slated to take on a middle-of-the-road Steelers’ secondary. Cecil Shorts and Marquise Lee aren’t expected to suit up against Pittsburgh, leaving Allen Robinson and Hurns to catch passes from Blake Bortles.
Hurns’ FanDuel salary fell by $400 after Week 4. He’s now the site’s 56th priciest receiver, cheaper than guys like Mike Williams and Dwayne Bowe. The Steelers have a bottom-7 coverage unit, according to Pro Football Focus, and I expect Bortles to sling it upwards of 40 times in this one. Hurns is an ideal tournament play who could see double-digit targets. That’s all we can ask for.
Michael Crabtree ($6,700) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Crabtree’s FanDuel price fell by $300 after a pedestrian line against the Eagles last week. If Colin Kaepernick had hit a wide-open Crabtree on a slant that was sure to be a touchdown, he wouldn’t be featured in this space headed into Week 5.
There are now 33 receivers priced ahead of Crabs, who takes on a Kansas City defense that – despite dismantling Tom Brady and company – is still allowing the 13th most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Crabtree is seeing a healthy 7.5 targets per game. There’s no reason to think he’ll be widely used in Week 5 FanDuel tourneys.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($5,400) vs. St. Louis Rams
Only six tight ends saw a salary dip of more than $100 on FanDuel this week, but Ertz was one of them, and he’s now the site’s 15th most expensive tight end option.
The Rams have been solid against tight ends through three games and Ertz isn’t exactly a target hog in Chip Kelly’s system, seeing just 4.7 targets per game. The good news: Ertz is running an average of 29 pass routes per game, a vastly underrated stat in judging a tight end’s fantasy prospects.
He’s a classic low-floor, high-ceiling play against St. Louis in Week 5.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterbacks
Blake Bortles ($5,200) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not exactly sure what Bortles did to earn a $600 decrease in DraftKings salary after his first start, but we’ll take it and run. He’s at home in a much more favorable matchup this week against a Pittsburgh coverage unit that shouldn’t scare anyone. Pittsburgh is ranked a mediocre 18th according to RotoGrinders’ QB vs. Defense tool.
The Jacksonville rookie is pretty close to free on DraftKings, available for less than the vaunted Christian Ponder. His 55 rushing yards through six quarters of action is a hopeful sign that he’ll give us running production here and there, and his .48 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) demonstrated nice efficiency.
Andy Dalton ($6,800) at New England Patriots
Dalton, after a $700 price tag plunge during his bye week, is a fairly cheap option against a New England secondary that allowed 248 yards and three scores to Alex Smith last week. The Patriots had feasted on some of the league’s worst signal callers before that Monday night massacre.
Dalton’s .44 FPAT isn’t great – it isn’t bad either – and it’s worth noting that he averages 1.96 touchdown passes (and 22.2 fantasy points) in Bengals wins. Cincy is favored to beat the Pats in New England.
Running Backs
Fred Jackson ($4,500) at Detroit Lions
Why would I run FJax headlong into that fierce Detroit run defense? Because I’m banking on Jackson to maintain his involvement in the Buffalo passing game as the Bills do their best to keep pace with a Detroit offense that looked decent even without Calvin Johnson last week.
Jackson has been Buffalo’s runner of choice when trailing, while C.J. Spiller has the edge on snaps when the team is ahead or tied. I think it’s safe to say Buffalo will struggle to keep pace in this one. Vegas has them pegged as a touchdown underdog.
Only Matt Forte has more targets among running back than Jackson does through four weeks. FJax’s DraftKings salary dipped by $400 after Week 4. There are 35 backs priced ahead of him this week.
Rashad Jennings ($5,500) vs. Atlanta Falcons
It feels a little like cheating to include Jennings in this space, but after an eye-popping DraftKings price drop of $1,000 after a lackluster Week 4 performance, I can’t exclude him from this list.
The Falcons, when adjusted for strength of schedule, are giving up 40.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. That’s ungodly. In two road games, Atlanta has been gouged to the tune of 377 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Jennings, if he gets 20 touches in this one (he will), will be a candidate for top-5 Week 5 running back numbers.
Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews ($3,500) vs. St. Louis Rams
Matthews was among the many Eagles to see their daily fantasy salaries go into freefall after Week 4’s offensive abomination in San Francisco. The folks at DraftKings dropped Matthews’ price tag by $2,200.
Matthews, who has seen 5.4 targets per contest since Week 2, gets his crack at a Rams’ defense that allows 8.1 yards per pass attempt – the third worst mark in the NFL. Matthews is running about 30 pass routes per game, as his involvement in Chip Kelly’s offense continues to grow. He’s basically free this week and he’s playing against a secondary that doesn’t scare anyone.
Julian Edelman ($5,700) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Edelman, for once, wasn’t the PPR cheat code in Week 4 we’ve come to know and love over the past year. The good part: Edelman still saw nine targets as the Patriots were blown out by the Chiefs on Monday night.
Only six receivers have more targets than Edelman through the season’s first four weeks. His DraftKings salary fell by $800, making him the site’s 22nd priciest wide receiver. He’s been top-12 in price for most of the first four weeks.
The Bengals’ secondary is no joke, though they’ve given up 14.6 receptions to receivers in their first three games. With New England expected to turn to a quick-hitting passing attack as the offensive line collapses before our very eyes, I think Edelman is a prime candidate for investment while there’s blood in his proverbial streets.
Tight End
Owen Daniels ($3,300) at Indianapolis Colts
Don’t let Daniels’ so-so Week 4 stat line dissuade you from playing the old guy this week in DraftKings tournaments. His price tag plunged by $800 after catching four passes for 43 yards in Week 4 against Carolina.
Gary Kubiak’s tight ends are always worth a look, especially against a team (Indy) that has allowed 12.5 fantasy points to tight ends this season. Remove the Colts’ Week 3 game against Jacksonville and Indianapolis is allowing 94 yards and 1.3 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. The unit is ranked 29th according to RotoGrinders’ Defense vs. TE tool.
The Colts, after losing safety LaRon Landry to a suspension this week, could be even more generous to tight ends going forward. Daniels could be a safe option with fine and dandy upside in this one.