Market Exploitation: NFL Week 6
Nick Foles, who was highlighted in this space last week following an eye-opening drop in his FanDuel price tag, did (almost) exactly what he’s done in Philadelphia wins since the start of 2013.
Foles tossed two touchdowns in the Eagles’ win over St. Louis, right in line with the 2.36 touchdowns he’s averaged in Philly wins under Chip Kelly. Sadly, he fell 60 yards short of his average in Eagles wins, and he threw an interception – something he’s rarely done when Philadelphia gets the W.
Foles’ 16.6 fantasy points weren’t abhorrent, though they were disappointing against a St. Louis defense that had allowed a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt through the season’s first month.
Investing in the Eagles after an across-the-board FanDuel salary cut was the right move. A big early lead and a whacked-out game script foiled our plans.
We’ll continue looking for value among players whose daily fantasy salaries have dropped the most from one week to the next, hoping to capitalize on market inefficiencies along the way.
The Market Watch Tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ GrindersU course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Now let’s continue to be greedy while our competitors are fearful.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Joe Flacco ($7,000) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s nothing quite like recommending a quarterback fresh off an 8.5-point performance in which he averaged a hideous 6.26 yards per pass attempt.
But Flacco this week gets his crack at the lowly Bucs’ secondary – a unit that has allowed an unholy 71.5 percent completion percentage to opposing signal callers. Only Oakland allows a higher percentage.
Quarterbacks are notching 7.7 yards per attempt against Tampa, the fourth worst mark in the NFL. Perhaps the best news for Flacco: Teams have consistently attacked Tampa through the air, throwing 37.8 passes against the Bucs’ exploitable corners and safeties.
Flacco is now FanuDel’s 20th highest priced quarterback after a $500 drop in salary. I see him as an ideal against-the-grain play after a horrendous Week 5 performance.
Running Backs
Ahmad Bradshaw ($6,200) at Houston Texans
It’s tough to look past a running back averaging 5.1 yards per carry (YPC) facing a defense allowing 4.8 YPC, especially when that runner’s FanDuel price tag falls by $400. Thirty-four backs are priced higher than Bradshaw this week.
Bradshaw, averaging 13.4 touches per game, is still somehow, some way getting a smaller piece of the backfield pie than Trent Richardson, but I like his chances to well exceed his cost in Thursday night’s showdown with Houston.
Teams are running the ball 27.8 times per game against the Texans. Only five defenses see more rushes every week.
Matt Asiata ($6,600) vs. Detroit Lions
There are a couple reason Asiata is a contrarian play in Week 6: he plays a Detroit front seven allowing just 3.2 YPC, and he’s coming off a decidedly disappointing performance against Green Bay.
Asiata still has a few things going for him in this objectively bad matchup: his FanDuel price tag dropped by $500 – making him the site’s 25th priciest back – and he’s still seeing 18.3 touches every week. His goal line duties have helped him post a .95 fantasy points per touch mark through four weeks as Minnesota’s starter.
For as solid as the Lions’ run defense has been, they’ve allowed .6 rushing scores per game through five weeks. Fred Jackson managed 4.9 YPC against the Lions last week – an unusually high mark, and one that comes in the wake of linebacker Stephen Tulloch’s dance-related, season-ending knee injury.
Wide Receivers
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,600) at Cincinnati Bengals
It would’ve been borderline unimaginable two weeks ago for Benjamin to fall out of the top-25 priciest receivers on FanDuel. That’s exactly what transpired this week after a three-catch, 38-yard Week 5 stat line.
Benjamin’s price tag plunged by $500, and now he gets to play a Bengals’ coverage unit anchored by Leon Hall and Terrence Newman – Pro Football Focus’ 36th and 22nd rated cover cornerbacks, respectively.
Cincy gets no pressure on quarterbacks, as seen against Tom Brady in Week 5, and teams pass the ball on 61.9 percent of plays against the Bengals – the seventh highest percentage in the league.
Benjamin has seen nine targets per contest this year and was very close to posting a solid stat line in Week 5.
Markus Wheaton ($5,100) at Cleveland Browns
Wheaton will face off this week against Buster Skrine – PFF’s 94nd ranked cover corner – while Antonio Brown goes up against PFF’s 95th best cover corner, Joe Haden.
Wheaton has seen a respectable 5.4 targets per game over the season’s first five weeks, notching a decent 1.7 fantasy points per target. I expect the Steelers to attack the atrocious Cleveland secondary early and often in this one, and Wheaton, as FanDuel’s 72nd priciest receiver, represents a clear chance to exploit a salary drop and lowered expectations after a few pedestrian outings.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($5,900) at Atlanta Falcons
Bennett’s FanDuel price tag doesn’t resemble anything close to what it was after his great Week 4 performance. Bennett’s salary dropped by $1,400 after Week 5. That’s a nice discount for a guy seeing 8.2 targets every week.
Perhaps most importantly, Bennett is running more pass routes than any tight end in the NFL – a critically important factor in reliable pass game production from tight ends and running backs.
Atlanta, when adjusted for strength of schedule, is allowing just 5.9 fantasy points to tight ends. That doesn’t dissuade me from deploying Bennett, who has more targets than any tight end not named Jimmy Graham.
Play Bennett with confidence in a game that Vegas projects as the week’s highest scoring contest.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Nick Foles ($6,800) vs. New York Giants
Foles saw another DraftKings salary cut after his middling performance against a bad St. Louis secondary. Foles’ price tag was reduced by $1,700. He’s now DraftKings’ 11th priciest quarterback.
Big Blue gives up 7.6 yards per pass attempt – the fifth highest mark in the NFL through five weeks. The Giants are allowing a league-high 12.6 yards per completion too.
That, combined with the generally negative outlook on Foles’ prospects and Vegas chalking this up to be one of the week’s highest scoring affairs, makes Foles a fine fit for this space. It’s easy to forget that Foles is averaging 276 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns.
Running Back
Joique Bell ($3,700) at Minnesota Vikings
This all depends on Bell’s availability after a Week 4 concussion held him out of Week 5’s contest against Buffalo. If Bell plays against Minnesota, he’ll be in a lot of my lineups, thanks in large part to a $1,900 reduction in his DraftKings salary.
There are now 30 runners priced higher than Bell, who could get a full workload against the Vikings if Reggie Bush misses the game with an ankle injury. Bell’s per-touch average of .65 fantasy points isn’t stellar until you realize he’s scored just one touchdown in 2014. That’ll change, as he’ll maintain Detroit’s goal line duties.
The Vikings, when adjusted for strength of schedule, are giving up 24.5 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. Bell has a rare high-floor, high-ceiling scenario in this one.
Wide Receivers
Cordarrelle Patterson ($4,200) vs. Detroit Lions
Patterson, at long last, is becoming a squeaky wheel as the Vikings’ season circles the toilet. He wants more touches, and his pleas come just in time: CPatt’s DraftKings price tag fell by $1,300 this week, making him $200 cheaper than Allen Hurns.
Patterson somehow has just 23 targets and four carries through five games. If you’re playing him in tournaments this weekend, you’re expecting that to change. We saw late last season what happens when the ball is forced into Patterson’s hands (he was WR5 from Week 13-17).
The expected return of Teddy Bridgewater is a giant upgrade for the entire Vikings’ offense, especially their best pass catcher.
Torrey Smith ($4,100) at Tampa Bay Bucs
Smith’s DraftKings price once again took a hit after another hideous stat line in Week 5. The incredibly vanishing receiver saw a $700 price hit and is one of the few useable receivers cheaper than Patterson in Week 6.
Tampa has been tormented through the air all season. The Bucs’ secondary gives up 13.2 receptions to opposing receivers, on average, and has allowed six touchdowns to wideouts over their first five games. Only two defenses – the Eagles and Cardinals — have allowed more fantasy production to receivers.
Torrey, as per usual, is nothing short of a lottery ticket in this one, but in this nice matchup, the price is right.
Tight End
Larry Donnell ($3,500) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Donnell went from an elite option to hardly worth a flier, all in the span of one short week. After going nuclear against Washington in Week 5, Donnell posted a donut in Week 6 as the Falcons double and triple teamed him in the red zone.
Donnell’s DraftKings price tag plunged by $2,200, making him the site’s 14th priciest tight end option for Week 6. Philly has proven tough against tight ends – only seven teams allow fewer fantasy points to the position – but Donnell is still running the number of pass routes needed to put up decent numbers over the long haul.
Donnell doesn’t seem like the kind of player who can overcome extra defensive attention, though the Eagles could struggle to do just that as they do everything they can to stop New York’s receivers from joining the long list of pass catchers who have roasted the Philadelphia secondary in 2014.
Vegas projects the G-Men to score 23.75 points against the Eagles. That’s enough for me to grab a piece of the New York offense on the cheap.