Market Exploitation: NFL Week 7
Joe Flacco, heading into Week 6, was exactly what we look for in this space: a veritable collision of falling perceptions and rising prospects.
Flacco’s FanDuel price tag had been knocked down by $500 after a horrid Week 5 performance, though a matchup against the Tampa Bay secondary was right around the corner, and with it, market exploitation.
Never in my wildest daily fantasy dreams would I have expected Flacco to go for 306 yards and five touchdown tosses, but he did just that, finishing as Week 6’s No. 2 fantasy quarterback.
Other players highlighted in this space last week, including Ahmad Bradshaw and Kelvin Benjamin, proved worthwhile investments after marked price drops.
Meanwhile, Matt Asiata’s workload was slashed in favor of explosive rookie runner Jerick McKinnon, and Markus Wheaton did almost nothing with 10 targets from Ben Roethlisberger. That’s become a disturbing trend – one that makes Wheaton almost unusable despite consistent FanDuel price reductions.
We’ll continue looking for value among players whose daily fantasy salaries have dropped the most from one week to the next, hoping to capitalize on market inefficiencies along the way.
The Market Watch Tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s.
We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ GrindersU course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Now let’s continue to be greedy while our competitors are fearful.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins ($7,200) vs. Tennessee Titans
Cousins continued his concerted push for Robert Griffin III to maintain his starting gig upon a possible return from injury next week, tossing three picks – one of which was returned for a game-capping touchdown.
Cousins’ FanDuel price subsequently dropped by $400, making him the site’s 21st most expensive quarterback option for Week 7.
I see that as good news: The Titans sport a middling secondary and their almost-total lack of a running game means opponents are collecting lots of offensive snaps against Tennessee (70, to be precise). The Titans are allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt, along with 340 passing yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns over their past three contests.
Cousins has somehow maintained a .51 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) despite throwing eight picks during his time as Washington’s starter. That means he’s hitting on big plays – thanks to DeSean Jackson – and throwing it plenty. Cousins might not have a tremendous fantasy floor in this one, but I’d put his ceiling as high as any quarterback in Week 7.
Running Back
Justin Forsett ($6,200) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Forsett was out-carried by Bernard Pierce last week and missed out on the Ravens’ lone rushing score. His FanDuel salary took a $200 knock as he prepares for a matchup that somehow looks tastier than Flacco’s Week 6 matchup.
The Falcons are a sieve to opposing runners, giving up an astounding 141.3 ground yards per game at a clip of 4.3 yards per tote. Baltimore coaches have had nothing but praise for Forsett in recent weeks, and I think we can safely write off Pierce’s Week 6 workload to the blowout conditions against Tampa.
Forsett, over his past three games, is notching 6.4 yards per carry and has 10 catches for 86 yards. He’s averaging a very healthy .84 fantasy points per touch. There’s really no reason to think he can’t maintain that per-touch efficiency against Atlanta, which sports Pro Football Focus’ 23th-ranked run defense.
There are 31 running backs priced ahead of Forsett this week.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen ($6,500) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Allen is officially the most disappointing wideout not named Cordarrelle Patterson, and his FanDuel price reflects as much. He’s not the site’s 34th priciest receiver after a $200 price tag drop.
Allen, despite his total lack of touchdowns and big plays, is still targeted at a decent clip, seeing 7.1 targets per game. Kansas City’s secondary is mediocre by almost every measure and Eddie Royal could be out – or limited – with a rib injury in Week 7. That, of course, doesn’t change the fact that Antonio Gates is hogging the red zone action in San Diego.
I’m not all that bullish on Allen in an offense that spreads around the ball like no other, but it’s tough to turn him down at a reduced price.
Pierre Garcon ($7,000) vs. Tennessee Titans
Garcon’s FanDuel price tag took a $300 hit after a disappointing line against an exploitable Arizona secondary. DeSean Jackson, who is now a full $1,000 more expensive than Garcon, is Washington’s clear-cut No. 1 option, right?
That depends. Jackson is far more efficient on a per-target basis, but Garcon is still seeing more passes come his way. He’s averaging 6.7 targets since Cousins started his first game in Week 2.
Tennessee’s coverage unit, according to Pro Football Focus, is manned by the NFL’s 37th, 76th, and 98th rated cornerbacks. The Titans have been shredded by opposing passers over the past month, as mentioned above, and I think Garcon could reap the benefits of a potentially big day for Washington’s passing attack.
While Garcon’s not exactly cheap, I don’t see any way he’ll be widely owned in Week 7. He makes for a fine tournament play.
Tight End
Dwayne Allen ($5,700) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
A quiet Week 6 performance led to a $200 reduction in Allen’s FanDuel price tag – just the thing we’re looking for as a player enters a (very) favorable matchup.
The Bengals, thanks in large part to linebackers and safeties who have proven predictably terrible in pass coverage, are being gouged by opposing tight ends. Cincy, against teams that use their tight end as part of the passing attack, is allowing an average of 9.5 receptions and 115 yards to the position. That’s 16.25 fantasy points, on average, just in reception production.
Allen is notching an eye-popping 2.24 fantasy points per target. For some perspective, consider that efficiency machine Travis Kelce is scoring 2.05 every time he’s targeted.
Ten tight ends are priced ahead of Allen this week, and I think he’s pretty clearly a top-5 play against the Bengals. The production split with Coby Fleener always looms, which might keep Allen’s ownership capped in Week 7. Hope for that and trust this ideal matchup.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Russell Wilson ($6,800) at St. Louis Rams
Wilson broke quite a few daily fantasy hearts in Week 6 when he delivered what can only be described as a clunker against a Dallas defense that is, well, good. Wilson, seen as an ultra-safe play against the Cowboys, finished as the week’s fourth lowest-scoring quarterback. Kyle Orton almost doubled RW3’s output.
That heartbreak lead to a an $800 reduction in Wilson’s DraftKings cost, putting him at No. 16 in quarterback cost for Week 7.
Opponents are largely beating the Rams on the ground this season, reflected by the 28.4 passes St. Louis faces on average. That doesn’t mean the Rams’ secondary is any good. They give up a hefty 7.8 yards per pass attempt (fourth worst) and 11.5 yards per completion.
Wilson is a prime contrarian play on the cheap against a secondary that can – and has – been tormented by opposing passers.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch ($7,100) at St. Louis Rams
We’re doing with the Seahawks like we did with the Eagles a few weeks ago: taking advantage of a serious drop in price thanks to recent performance shortcomings. To put it simply: Seattle’s offense stunk last week, and with the subsequent price drop comes a favorable matchup.
Lynch, despite his quiet Week 6, is fantasy’s No. 4 running back and seeing 18.6 touches per game in a potentially high-powered offense. St. Louis opponents are averaging 30.3 rushes through six weeks, and the Rams are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Only seven teams are worse against the run.
Lynch could very well be an arbitrage play on DeMarco Murray, who costs $2,500 more on DraftKings in Week 7.
Andre Williams ($4,400) at Dallas Cowboys
There are now 31 running backs priced ahead of the Giants’ starting runner, whose role was capped last Sunday night in a blowout loss. The rookie’s DraftKings price dropped by $1,000 this week.
When teams commit to the run against the Cowboys’ front seven, they fare well. The 49ers, Rams, and Texans all gashed Dallas on the ground with an average of 26.6 rushes per game. Seattle, meanwhile, ran the ball 12 times against the Cowboys.
Perhaps the Giants won’t have a chance to establish any sort of ground attack in this one, but if they do, Williams could chew up yardage and see goal line touches. Williams comes with scary downside, but fantastic upside.
Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders ($5,900) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sanders’ worst outing of 2014 resulted in a $1,000 price drop on DraftKings, putting him at 18th in receiver price for Week 7. I hope to take full advantage.
The 49ers’ secondary, in the season’s first three weeks, allowed 40.3 fantasy points per game to wideouts. San Francisco then shut down the middling wide receiver crews in Kansas City and St. Louis.
Sanders is seeing 9.7 Peyton Manning targets come his way every Sunday. That’s enough for me to shrug off one bad stat line, take advantage in a price tag plunge and roll with Sanders in what Vegas projects as one of Week 7’s highest scoring games. Sanders doesn’t score touchdowns, but in DraftKings’ PPR scoring system, he’s a living, breathing cheat code.
Pierre Garcon ($5,000) vs. Tennessee Titans
Garcon’s DraftKings price continued to decline after Week 6’s middling stat line against Arizona’s exploitable defense. He’s now the 28th priciest receiver on DraftKings after an $800 salary drop.
He could easily put up WR1 numbers while he’s priced as a WR3 against a Titans’ secondary that has been smoked in recent weeks by opposing passers. Garcon remains Washington’s most targeted pass catcher and can be had for less than Cecil Shorts III and James Jones.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($5,100) vs. Miami Dolphins
Bennett has been quiet for a couple weeks now after a white-hot start to the 2014 campaign. Perhaps that has something to do with the improving health of Brandon Marshall, or maybe his target numbers simply weren’t sustainable over the long run. Whatever’s happened with the Unicorn, his DraftKings price took another hit – this time $400 – and he now sits as the site’s sixth priciest tight end.
The matchup, however, is right this week. The Dolphins, when adjusted for strength of schedule, are giving up 14 fantasy points per contest to tight ends. Tight ends have scored four touchdowns in five games against Miami.
Bennett is still notching a nice .48 fantasy points per target, nabbing 75 percent of the targets that have come his way in 2014. While he’s not exactly cheap, I’m sure his ownership numbers will be very low in Week 7.