Market Exploitation: NFL Week 7
We’re back with another edition of Market Exploitation, as we look to try and take advantage of some questionable pricing on offer. Which plays stand out in Week 7?
Quarterback
Russell Wilson ($6,800) at St. Louis Rams
Wilson broke quite a few daily fantasy hearts in Week 6 when he delivered what can only be described as a clunker against a Dallas defense that is, well, good. Wilson, seen as an ultra-safe play against the Cowboys, finished as the week’s fourth lowest-scoring quarterback. Kyle Orton almost doubled RW3’s output.
That heartbreak lead to a an $800 reduction in Wilson’s DraftKings cost, putting him at No. 16 in quarterback cost for Week 7.
Opponents are largely beating the Rams on the ground this season, reflected by the 28.4 passes St. Louis faces on average. That doesn’t mean the Rams’ secondary is any good. They give up a hefty 7.8 yards per pass attempt (fourth worst) and 11.5 yards per completion.
Wilson is a prime contrarian play on the cheap against a secondary that can – and has – been tormented by opposing passers.
Running Backs
Marshawn Lynch ($7,100) at St. Louis Rams
We’re doing with the Seahawks like we did with the Eagles a few weeks ago: taking advantage of a serious drop in price thanks to recent performance shortcomings. To put it simply: Seattle’s offense stunk last week, and with the subsequent price drop comes a favorable matchup.
Lynch, despite his quiet Week 6, is fantasy’s No. 4 running back and seeing 18.6 touches per game in a potentially high-powered offense. St. Louis opponents are averaging 30.3 rushes through six weeks, and the Rams are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Only seven teams are worse against the run.
Lynch could very well be an arbitrage play on DeMarco Murray, who costs $2,500 more on DraftKings in Week 7.
Andre Williams ($4,400) at Dallas Cowboys
There are now 31 running backs priced ahead of the Giants’ starting runner, whose role was capped last Sunday night in a blowout loss. The rookie’s DraftKings price dropped by $1,000 this week.
When teams commit to the run against the Cowboys’ front seven, they fare well. The 49ers, Rams, and Texans all gashed Dallas on the ground with an average of 26.6 rushes per game. Seattle, meanwhile, ran the ball 12 times against the Cowboys.
Perhaps the Giants won’t have a chance to establish any sort of ground attack in this one, but if they do, Williams could chew up yardage and see goal line touches. Williams comes with scary downside, but fantastic upside.
Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders ($5,900) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sanders’ worst outing of 2014 resulted in a $1,000 price drop on DraftKings, putting him at 18th in receiver price for Week 7. I hope to take full advantage.
The 49ers’ secondary, in the season’s first three weeks, allowed 40.3 fantasy points per game to wideouts. San Francisco then shut down the middling wide receiver crews in Kansas City and St. Louis.
Sanders is seeing 9.7 Peyton Manning targets come his way every Sunday. That’s enough for me to shrug off one bad stat line, take advantage in a price tag plunge and roll with Sanders in what Vegas projects as one of Week 7’s highest scoring games. Sanders doesn’t score touchdowns, but in DraftKings’ PPR scoring system, he’s a living, breathing cheat code.
Pierre Garcon ($5,000) vs. Tennessee Titans
Garcon’s DraftKings price continued to decline after Week 6’s middling stat line against Arizona’s exploitable defense. He’s now the 28th priciest receiver on DraftKings after an $800 salary drop.
He could easily put up WR1 numbers while he’s priced as a WR3 against a Titans’ secondary that has been smoked in recent weeks by opposing passers. Garcon remains Washington’s most targeted pass catcher and can be had for less than Cecil Shorts III and James Jones.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($5,100) vs. Miami Dolphins
Bennett has been quiet for a couple weeks now after a white-hot start to the 2014 campaign. Perhaps that has something to do with the improving health of Brandon Marshall, or maybe his target numbers simply weren’t sustainable over the long run. Whatever’s happened with the Unicorn, his DraftKings price took another hit – this time $400 – and he now sits as the site’s sixth priciest tight end.
The matchup, however, is right this week. The Dolphins, when adjusted for strength of schedule, are giving up 14 fantasy points per contest to tight ends. Tight ends have scored four touchdowns in five games against Miami.
Bennett is still notching a nice .48 fantasy points per target, nabbing 75 percent of the targets that have come his way in 2014. While he’s not exactly cheap, I’m sure his ownership numbers will be very low in Week 7.