Market Exploitation: Week 10
Ryan Tannehill’s gaudy Week 9 numbers offered daily gamers a couple valuable reminders: San Diego’s defense is more than a little vulnerable now that the Chargers’ offense can’t establish the run and play their annoying game of keep away, and we should never get bogged down in a player’s prior week performance.
Tannehill, highlighted last week in this space, had seen a $500 FanDuel salary decrease after putting up pedestrian numbers against the Jaguars in Week 8. Tannehill let down quite a few daily fantasy footballers looking to skimp on quarterback and cash in on a nice matchup against Jacksonville.
Hence, in the week after Tanny’s letdown, he was used by a mere 1 percent of FanDuel gamers. The DFS stars aligned for Tannehill to be an ideal exploitative option in Week 10: a price drop, a favorable matchup, and the general fear of deploying the Miami quarterback after his letdown against the Jags. I hope you were greedy with Tanny.
Shane Vereen proved a worthwhile investment in the wake of a marked price tag decrease, as he posted 15.28 fantasy points and was used by just 4.8 percent of FanDuelers.
Mike Wallace, meanwhile, couldn’t get in on all the various point scoring in Miami, as shutdown cornerback Brandon Flowers blanketed the speedster throughout the game. And Clay Harbor, despite running a healthy 27 pass routes against a Bengals’ defense that had been gouged by tight ends, didn’t notch a single point.
The Market Watch Tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s.
We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ GrindersU course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Now let’s continue to be greedy while our competitors are fearful.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Matt Ryan ($7,800) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The case of Ryan is a simple one: the struggling signal caller’s FanDuel salary dipped by $700 during Atlanta’s bye week and he now gets another shot at an historically bad Tampa secondary.
Ryan carved up the Bucs’ coverage unit in September, finishing with 286 yards and three touchdowns before getting a breather in the fourth quarter of the Week 3 bloodbath. Tampa’s secondary is as bad as ever – allowing 7.8 yards per pas attempt and 2.2 passing scores per game – so there’s no reason to think Ryan can’t once again pick apart the Bucs.
It’s worth noting that Ryan has, since 2012, fared far better against the NFL’s worst secondaries than he has against top coverage units (whereas quarterbacks like Carson Palmer and Tom Brady perform similarly against top and bottom pass defenses). Ryan averages 25.3 fantasy points against bottom-half secondaries, more than five points more than his average against top-half pass defenses.
Ryan is 13th in quarterback salary this week. He could easily finish Week 10 as a top-3 option.
Writer’s Note: No running backs fit the bill this week, so we’ll add another wide receiver to the mix instead.
Wide Receiver
Roddy White ($6,600) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It makes sense that we have so many teammates featured in this space every week, as the valuation of a struggling offense sinks all price tags, with few exceptions. That’s what we have here with Ryan and White, as the receiver’s FanDuel asking price has fallen by $600, making him the site’s 23rd-highest priced wideout for Week 10.
And while White is priced as a low-end WR2, I think he has low-end WR1 upside against the aforementioned disaster of a Tampa secondary. He was sidelined in the Falcons’ first matchup against the Bucs, but has a chance to be one of Week 10’s best value plays – and maybe even a cash game staple.
Daily fantasy opinion probably couldn’t be lower on Roddy after he’s posted three single-digit fantasy performances in his past four outings. There’s blood in those Roddy streets. It’s time to buy.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6,700) at Philadelphia Eagles
I think daily fantasy footballers would like to see Benjamin’s price well outside the top-20 this week – he’s 19th in receiver price – but this play is more about seizing on pervasive fear and loathing of the Carolina rookie.
Benjamin, thanks to Cam Newton’s nightmarish Week 9 performance that had Derek Anderson’s name on the lips of everyone who deployed Kelvin, posted a miserable line against New Orleans. He scored 2.8 points against one of the league’s worst secondaries. Newton missed his giant rookie target on not one, but two potential scores.
Benjamin is still seeing plenty of targets, with only 11 receivers seeing more looks through nine weeks. He’ll be fed once again against an Eagles’ defense giving up the fourth-most fantasy production to opposing wideouts. Hopefully, Newton can manage to morph into a serviceable quarterback.
Philly outside cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams are among Pro Football Focus’s lowest-rated cover guys, as they’ve been continually burned by deep threats like Benjamin. I expect low ownership for Benjamin, who has top-10 upside in an objectively juicy matchup.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett ($6,500) at Green Bay Packers
The Unicorn is once again featured in this exploitative space because, well, his FanDuel salary has once again dropped – this time by $800. Bennett is now the site’s fourth-priciest tight end in a bye week-ravaged pool.
Bennett hasn’t been particularly efficient in his best fantasy season – he’s averaging a humble .48 fantasy points per route run – but that shouldn’t matter a whole lot in a game Vegas projects as Week 10’s highest-scoring matchup. Jay Cutler has targeted his tight end 7.8 times per contest through eight weeks.
Bennett racked up 17.9 FanDuel fantasy points in Chicago’s first game against the Packers, as Green Bay linebackers struggled mightily to keep up with the nimble Unicorn.
While Bennett isn’t exactly cheap, I see him as a reasonable arbitrage play on Julius Thomas and Jimmy Graham after a massive price tag cut.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford ($7,100) vs. Miami Dolphins
Stafford, who has averaged 15.7 fantasy points per contest in Calvin Johnson’s absence, is now priced as DraftKing’s 10th highest-priced quarterback after a $1,700 price tag decrease. Stafford is just $200 more expensive than Joe Flacco.
The Lions expect Megatron to return from his ankle injury in Week 10 against the Dolphins, and while this is something less than a good matchup for Detroit’s passing attack, Stafford’s Megatron splits should grab our attention. Stafford averages 47.3 more yards and .45 more touchdown tosses with Calvin in the lineup. It makes perfect sense, as Megatron is the league’s most irreplaceable weapon.
Pro Football Focus grades Miami as the league’s ninth-best pass defense. The Dolphins, when adjusted for strength of schedule, allow the second-fewest fantasy points to signal callers. I suspect Stafford’s recent non-elite play and the seemingly bad matchup will suppress his Week 10 ownership and make him a nice contrarian option with Megatron back in the fold.
Running Back
Reggie Bush ($4,200) vs. Miami Dolphins
I’m not a huge fan of mentioning Bush in this space. His usage was limited even before his various injuries and this is a comically bad matchup for a guy being reinserted into an offense that might not need him.
Bush is expected to play, and if Detroit coaches and beat writers are to be believed, he’ll see action against his former team. Bush’s Week 10 DraftKings price is absurdly low — $4,200 thanks to a $2,000 price cut.
Reggie has averaged 10.8 DraftKings points per game in 2014, and while that wouldn’t steer you to piles of daily fantasy cash, I think Bush is a (near) rock-bottom investment who could prove useful if you want to go all in at another position.
Wide Receiver
Kelvin Benjamin ($4,200) at Philadelphia Eagles
If Benjamin is a solid play this week on FanDuel, he’s a must play on DraftKings for those looking to exploit a massive market inefficiency. Benjamin, after a jaw dropping $2,400 price drop, is now cheaper than Stevie Johnson and Andrew Hawkins, to name a couple.
The Carolina rookie will have a great shot to do damage against what could be the worst cornerback tandem in the NFL, and he’s being targeted heavily no matter the matchup, as we saw even against Seattle’s secondary.
Kelvin is priced like a WR4 in a matchup that could see him easily rank among the week’s top dozen wideouts.
Calvin Johnson ($7,100) vs. Miami Dolphins
I would’ve bet real money that Megatron wouldn’t end up highlighted in this space, but he has. After a $1,100 price cut and lingering fears about his banged-up ankle, I think Calvin’s Week 10 DraftKings ownership could be low. He’s the seventh-priciest receiver on the site.
The hope is that we can seize on daily gamers’ hesitation to plug in Megatron and trust that he’ll hold up. There’s also the matchup: Miami, when adjusted for strength of schedule, is allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Megatron, of course, is what we like to call matchup proof.
Tight End
Clay Harbor ($3,200) vs. Dallas Cowboys
We’ll try one more time with Harbor, who, despite running 27 pass routes against the Bengals in Week 9, was targeted just once and failed to record a catch. Hence, Harbor remains the direct opposite of a cash-game play.
Dallas continued to be gouged by opposing tight ends in Week 9, this time by John Carlson, who managed 9.9 fantasy points against the Cowboys on six targets. Dallas’ defense is now allowing an average of seven receptions and .89 touchdowns to tight ends.
A tight end’s pass route average is important, and Harbor’s has remained fairly high. He’s a swing for the fences, but he could very well be worth it against an injury-plagued Cowboys defense that has time and again given up hefty stat lines to tight ends.
The season ending injury to Dallas linebacker Justin Durant, who was ranked by PFF among the NFL’s elite coverage linebackers, further boosts Harbor’s Week 10 prospects.