Market Exploitation: Week 10
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Where’s the best value in Week 10? Some options you may want to consider can be found below.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford ($7,100) vs. Miami Dolphins
Stafford, who has averaged 15.7 fantasy points per contest in Calvin Johnson’s absence, is now priced as DraftKing’s 10th highest-priced quarterback after a $1,700 price tag decrease. Stafford is just $200 more expensive than Joe Flacco.
The Lions expect Megatron to return from his ankle injury in Week 10 against the Dolphins, and while this is something less than a good matchup for Detroit’s passing attack, Stafford’s Megatron splits should grab our attention. Stafford averages 47.3 more yards and .45 more touchdown tosses with Calvin in the lineup. It makes perfect sense, as Megatron is the league’s most irreplaceable weapon.
Pro Football Focus grades Miami as the league’s ninth-best pass defense. The Dolphins, when adjusted for strength of schedule, allow the second-fewest fantasy points to signal callers. I suspect Stafford’s recent non-elite play and the seemingly bad matchup will suppress his Week 10 ownership and make him a nice contrarian option with Megatron back in the fold.
Running Back
Reggie Bush ($4,200) vs. Miami Dolphins
I’m not a huge fan of mentioning Bush in this space. His usage was limited even before his various injuries and this is a comically bad matchup for a guy being reinserted into an offense that might not need him.
Bush is expected to play, and if Detroit coaches and beat writers are to be believed, he’ll see action against his former team. Bush’s Week 10 DraftKings price is absurdly low — $4,200 thanks to a $2,000 price cut.
Reggie has averaged 10.8 DraftKings points per game in 2014, and while that wouldn’t steer you to piles of daily fantasy cash, I think Bush is a (near) rock-bottom investment who could prove useful if you want to go all in at another position.
Wide Receiver
Kelvin Benjamin ($4,200) at Philadelphia Eagles
If Benjamin is a solid play this week on FanDuel, he’s a must play on DraftKings for those looking to exploit a massive market inefficiency. Benjamin, after a jaw dropping $2,400 price drop, is now cheaper than Stevie Johnson and Andrew Hawkins, to name a couple.
The Carolina rookie will have a great shot to do damage against what could be the worst cornerback tandem in the NFL, and he’s being targeted heavily no matter the matchup, as we saw even against Seattle’s secondary.
Kelvin is priced like a WR4 in a matchup that could see him easily rank among the week’s top dozen wideouts.
Calvin Johnson ($7,100) vs. Miami Dolphins
I would’ve bet real money that Megatron wouldn’t end up highlighted in this space, but he has. After a $1,100 price cut and lingering fears about his banged-up ankle, I think Calvin’s Week 10 DraftKings ownership could be low. He’s the seventh-priciest receiver on the site.
The hope is that we can seize on daily gamers’ hesitation to plug in Megatron and trust that he’ll hold up. There’s also the matchup: Miami, when adjusted for strength of schedule, is allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Megatron, of course, is what we like to call matchup proof.
Tight End
Clay Harbor ($3,200) vs. Dallas Cowboys
We’ll try one more time with Harbor, who, despite running 27 pass routes against the Bengals in Week 9, was targeted just once and failed to record a catch. Hence, Harbor remains the direct opposite of a cash-game play.
Dallas continued to be gouged by opposing tight ends in Week 9, this time by John Carlson, who managed 9.9 fantasy points against the Cowboys on six targets. Dallas’ defense is now allowing an average of seven receptions and .89 touchdowns to tight ends.
A tight end’s pass route average is important, and Harbor’s has remained fairly high. He’s a swing for the fences, but he could very well be worth it against an injury-plagued Cowboys defense that has time and again given up hefty stat lines to tight ends.
The season ending injury to Dallas linebacker Justin Durant, who was ranked by PFF among the NFL’s elite coverage linebackers, further boosts Harbor’s Week 10 prospects.