Market Exploitation: Week 11
All we can do, as fantasy footballers committed to exploiting inefficiencies and trusting process, is pick undervalued players in favorable matchups.
We can’t, unfortunately, step in for Devin Hester and catch a wide-open 30-yard touchdown that would’ve made Matt Ryan a top-7 Week 10 fantasy quarterback.
Ryan was highlighted in this space last week after a marked FanDuel salary decrease and a cake matchup against the historically awful Tampa Bay secondary. It was that Hester drop – and a couple other unfortunate bounces – that helped Ryan accomplish the seemingly impossible: he failed to put up top-12 numbers against the Bucs.
Our other Week 10 exploitative plays, Roddy White and Kelvin Benjamin, posted WR15 and WR6 numbers, respectively, after huge daily fantasy price tag drops that put them behind a couple dozen wide receivers.
Martellus Bennett, meanwhile, went down with the flaming, rat-infested ship that is the Bears’ offense, reeling in just two catches for 45 yards. Unicorn also dropped two passes.
Anecdotally, I’ve been a little surprised by what has become predictable daily fantasy investment in players whose salary has spiked after big stat lines – even when those gaudy numbers are clearly outliers and likely unrepeatable. That makes our exploitative approach all the more effective, as we latch on to players we see as under-priced after one or two meager outputs.
I always thought the proliferation of projection models and algorithms would strip away the advantage we have in examining price drops, as machines would help correct fantasy footballers’ short-term-driven biases. But it seems fear and greed persist as cornerstones of human behavior – a fact I won’t bemoan for DFS purposes.
We’ll continue looking for value among players whose daily fantasy salaries have dropped the most from one week to the next, hoping to capitalize on market inefficiencies along the way.
The Market Watch Tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s.
We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ GrindersU course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterback
Philip Rivers ($8,500) at Oakland Raiders
Rivers, after a $400 drop in his FanDuel price tag, is still not a screaming bargain in Week 11, though there’s an argument to make that Rivers could present an arbitrage play on the site’s highest priced signal calling options.
Rivers’ price decrease is of course a result of his hideous performance at Miami two weeks ago in which he finished with an unsightly 0.82 fantasy points. A little perspective in the face of all-out panic will show that Rivers, just a month ago, roasted Oakland’s secondary for 313 yards and a trio of touchdown tosses.
Teams have chosen to beat the Raiders on the ground in 2014. That’s reflected in the low 32.7 passes per game Oakland’s defense sees. But quarterbacks have been highly efficient in those limited throws, scoring 0.52 fantasy points per pass attempt (FPAT), one of the highest marks in the league.
San Diego has no running game of which to speak. Only Oakland is a worse running blocking team than the Chargers, per Pro Football Focus. Expect Rivers to throw quite a bit this week against what PFF pegs as the NFL’s ninth-worst coverage unit.
Running Back
Alfred Morris ($7,300) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Morris’ FanDuel price plummeted by $400 during Washington’s bye week, inviting anyone and everyone to invest in Morris as he heads into a juicy matchup with Robert Griffin III back at the helm – an incredibly important factor for Morris’ value.
Morris, in 31 games with RGIII in the backfield, has notched 13.9 fantasy points per game, compared to 11.1 points with various other Washington quarterbacks. Morris gains almost 24 more rushing yards with RGIII under center, and averages a not-insignificant 0.2 more touchdowns with Griffin. Morris has eclipsed 10 fantasy points in fewer than half of the 10 games he’s played without RGIII in the lineup.
Tampa is allowing 23.6 fantasy points per game to running backs, when you adjust for strength of schedule. They’ve given up 0.9 rushing scores per game; only seven defenses allow more rushing scores on a weekly basis. I think Morris – FanDuel’s 13th highest priced runner – could quite easily be a top-5 Week 11 option.
Wide Receiver
Vincent Jackson ($6,500) at Washington
I’d be much more bullish on VJax if Mike Glennon were still starting for Tampa, but it’s hard to ignore the target volume the veteran is seeing with Josh McCown under center. Jackson is seeing 9.8 targets per contest when the journeyman signal caller starts for the Bucs.
PFF rates Washington’s secondary as the second worst in the NFL, with the team’s highest-rated cornerbacks ranked as 71st in coverage. They’ve been gouged by opposing passing attacks, giving up a 64.7 percent completion rate to opposing passers – decidedly good news for an inaccurate thrower like McCown.
Jackson is priced on FanDuel as a mid-range WR3 in a matchup that could reasonably generate low-end WR1 numbers for the hulking receiver.
Tight End
Coby Fleener ($5,000) vs. New England Patriots
I was going to highlight Travis Kelce here, but I suspect his ownership will be quite high this week as he takes on a Seattle defense that has proven vulnerable to tight ends in 2014. We’ll instead shift to Fleener, who represents a cheap investment in a game Vegas expects to be the week’s – perhaps the year’s – highest-scoring affair.
Fleener, outside of a Week 8 dud, has posted 8.1, 8.4, and 15.7 fantasy points since Week 7, seeing a decent 6.6 targets per contest along the way. He’s now $1,200 cheaper than teammate Dwayne Allen after a $600 price drop on FanDuel.
New England’s defense has allowed at least one touchdown to tight ends in four of their past six games. They’ve given up 5.5 receptions to tight ends during that stretch. Fleener certainly isn’t a cash-game option – his floor remains scarily low – but I think he makes for a sensible play for daily gamers looking for cheap parts of the Colts-Patriots offensive fireworks show.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick ($6,400) at New York Giants
Two subpar performances have sunk Kaepernick’s DraftKings price to QB15 in Week 11, when he gets a crack at a Giants’ secondary that simply isn’t the same without the sidelined Prince Amukamara.
I wouldn’t put much stock in Russell Wilson’s meager Week 10 throwing output against Big Blue, as Seattle’s passing attack has been downright anemic for much of 2014. The 49ers’ aerial game, in my estimation, is a marked upgrade over the Seahawks.
Kaepernick, despite his recent struggles, maintains an FPAT of 0.47 – a shade higher than Drew Brees’ FPAT – and is just behind Tom Brady in fantasy points per drop back. In other words, he’s been an efficient producer.
While I don’t think Kaepernick has top-5 upside this week, a $900 price decrease is tough to ignore. I’m all for exploiting that price cut and the daily gaming public fear of Kaepernick after two shoddy performances.
One more note on Kaep: Vegas projects the Niners to score 24 points against the Giants’ mediocre defense, the fourth most of any away team.
Running Back
Jeremy Hill ($4,500) at New Orleans Saints
Hill shattered a million daily gaming hearts last Thursday against the Browns when the natural disaster than is Cincy’s offense forced the ball out of Hill’s hands in a juicy matchup. He also fumbled, which got him a spot on the pine.
Hill’s DraftKings salary subsequently took a $1,400 hit headed into Week 11. He now faces off against a New Orleans front seven allowing the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing backs. When teams aren’t scrambling to match Drew Brees and company score for score, the Saints can be had on the ground.
That’s a tall order, of course, making Hill nothing more than a (very) cheap tournament play in a game projected to see 50.5 points – the fourth highest over-under of Week 11. With Gio Bernard still sidelined at Bengals’ practice, it’s fairly certain that Hill will get something close to a featured role once again.
Give Hill – who should maintain goal line duties – around 15 touches in this one and I think he’ll easily meet his diminished price. Twenty-four running backs are pricier than Hill this week.
Wide Receiver
Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,800) at Chicago Bears
I had to will myself to write Patterson’s name in this space. He’s being outscored by Miles Austin through 10 weeks. He’s scoring an abominably low 0.16 fantasy points per snap, or what we in the industry like to call Justin Hunter Territory.
But here’s Patterson, his DraftKings salary cut by another $1,700, near the site’s minimum salary, among the wide receiver dregs in daily fantasy. However, a Patterson apologist would tell you that he had scored 9.2 and 15.6 fantasy points in the two outings before his 1.9-point debacle against Washington’s awful secondary. He was, of course, one sun-blocked deep ball from being among that week’s top-12 receivers.
Teddy Bridgewater, since taking over the Vikings’ sad excuse for an offense, has targeted Patterson 5.8 times per contest. I think that offers just enough hope to think Patterson can boom instead of bust against an unraveling Chicago secondary rated as Pro Football Focus’ fifth worst coverage unit. The Bears are allowing an incredible 12.1 yards per completion.
I wouldn’t stack Bridgewater and Patterson – I don’t think the rookie quarterback has an incredibly high ceiling here – but that doesn’t mean I won’t hold my nose and take a tournament flier on the receiver no one loves.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($4,000) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Yet another disappointing stat line from mini-Gronk lead to a $1,100 price cut, making Kelce DraftKings’ ninth priciest tight end option in Week 11. That reduction is primed for exploitation in a favorable matchup against a defense that will undoubtedly shut down every other aerial option for the ultra-conservative Chiefs.
Kelce is still scoring just about as many points per route run as Rob Gronkowski, though his usage remains the focus of our collective fantasy frustration. This could be the week – with Anthony Fasano nursing a knee injury – that Kelce rewards our diminishing patience. He plays a Seattle defense that has given up five or more receptions to tight ends five times in 2014. Tight ends have scored more than one touchdown against the Seahawks four times in nine games.
There’s simply no way Kansas City generates yards outside of force feeding Jamaal Charles and, hopefully, Kelce. I’d say his floor is as safe as it’s ever been and his ceiling is tremendous in Week 11. Kelce is custom made for tournament formats.